Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
I have not heard or scene any medical professional using the method he is using. He is not counting active cases. Everyone else in the world is saying if you aren't dead then we count that regardless if you are active or recovered.
So using the formula everyone else is using the mortality rate right now globally is 4.5%. I understand what he is trying to say but no one else seems to be using that formula or at least the vast majority are not. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
I think the inflammatory changes are causing heart blockage effect, Gupta was talking about it this morning . he mentioned 20% but unsure if this was only in hospitalized patients.
It's based on a tiny Chinese study of chemical markers for cardiac damage in Covid patients. The people with damage were overwhelmingly older 70+ and had comorbidities
Originally Posted by TLO:
If the mortality rate was anywhere close to that the virus would have already burned itself out.
Why? It doesn't kill you in a few days like Ebola which gives it an easy chance to spread. Most people even start to feel better after the first week and would be more willing to leave the house and spread it to others. I'm not saying it's 30%. I'm saying it's higher than China reported.
People either say they don't believe China, and this is a hoax. Fine. If you don't believe China then the numbers are even worse in Italy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
It's based on a tiny Chinese study of chemical markers for cardiac damage in Covid patients. The people with damage were overwhelmingly older 70+ and had comorbidities
.All patients were hospitalized.
Could be I didn't hear him state his source but he did say pre existing conditions were not a factor, so maybe a different source. [Reply]
Dyson has received an order from the UK government for 10,000 ventilators to support efforts by the country's National Health Service to treat coronavirus patients.
James Dyson, the company's billionaire founder, confirmed the order in a letter to employees shared with CNN on Wednesday.
"A ventilator supports a patient who is no longer able to maintain their own airways, but sadly there is currently a significant shortage, both in the UK and other countries around the world," Dyson wrote.
Dyson said the company had designed and built an entirely new ventilator, called the "CoVent," since he received a call 10 days ago from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
"This new device can be manufactured quickly, efficiently and at volume," Dyson added, saying that the new ventilator has been designed to "address the specific needs" of coronavirus patients.
A spokesperson for the company, which is best known for its vacuum cleaners and hand dryers, said the ventilators would be ready by early April. Dyson, who has wealth worth $10 billion according to Bloomberg, wrote in his letter that he would also donate 5,000 units to the international effort to tackle the pandemic.
"The core challenge was how to design and deliver a new, sophisticated medical product in volume and in an extremely short space of time," he added. "The race is now on to get it into production."
Healthcare workers in many parts of the world are having trouble enough critical supplies, such as masks, gloves and ventilators, to deal with the influx of patients suffering from the highly contagious virus.
A second UK firm, Gtech, is also working to produce ventilators and has submitted two examples to the government for assessment. The company specializes in cordless vacuum cleaners and garden power tools.
In the United States, Ford (F) has announced that it's working with 3M and GE Healthcare to produce medical equipment including ventilators and protective gear. GM (GM) and Tesla (TSLA) have also pledged to make ventilators.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I have not heard or scene any medical professional using the method he is using. He is not counting active cases. Everyone else in the world is saying if you aren't dead then we count that regardless if you are active or recovered.
So using the formula everyone else is using the mortality rate right now globally is 4.5%. I understand what he is trying to say but no one else seems to be using that formula or at least the vast majority are not.
WHY WOULD YOU USE AN ACTIVE CASE IN DETERMINING MORTALITY RATE?
WHY?
There has been no outcome. You can't derive any result one way or another from them. I guess you can continue to bury your head in the sand but active cases that have not run their course yet do not matter.
The only reason the mortality rate for sure ISN'T that high is because of all the people running around, not getting tested, feeling generally asymptomatic. Yet nobody cares to find out what percentage or an sample of the general population that has it. Until we do that we can't make accurate decisions. Hell, we may be even overreacting if we know that 30% of our population already has it (which I highly doubt but we have no idea) [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
WHY WOULD YOU USE AN ACTIVE CASE IN DETERMINING MORTALITY RATE?
WHY?
There has been no outcome. You can't derive any result one way or another from them.
You can YELL all you want. The fact of the matter is you are the only one it appears to be not doing it. Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx and everyone else are not using your method of calculation.
And I will tell you why. Because if you aren't dead you are alive. Until it kills you it doesn't kill you. That's why they aren't using your method, I would assume.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
You can YELL all you want. The fact of the matter is you are the only one it appears to be not doing it. Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx and everyone else are not using your method of calculation.
And I will tell you why. Because if you aren't dead you are alive. Until it kills you it doesn't kill you. That's why they aren't using your method, I would assume.
Either way, no one is doing what you are.
They aren't using the numbers like you suggest. What they are doing is trying to guess and hypothesize based on how many cases they THINK are not reported & asymptomatic. They are trying to guess how many asymptomatic people there may be and deriving a mortality rate number. What you are all doing is dividing deaths by active cases, which is not what they are doing.
The point I'm trying to make is, we do not have a firm handle on the true mortality rate of this thing. Only the mortality rate of reported cases, which is higher than people thought it would be. [Reply]
I hope the deaths don't go too high. If there is a kick ass corona virus movie i don't want a list if names it was dedicated to lasting 20 minutes when I am waiting to see who played bully #2 [Reply]
It is a refundable tax credit - The check acts like a refund you get in advance. When you file your 2020 tax return, the IRS will compare your income numbers.
If you should have gotten more than you did, you’ll get a refund. If the numbers on your 2020 tax return are different from your 2019 tax return, I don’t expect that you’ll have to pay it back (as the bill is written now). Don’t worry: most taxpayers should get just the right amount.
Originally Posted by BWillie:
They aren't using the numbers like you suggest. What they are doing is trying to guess. They are trying to guess how many asymptomatic people there may be and deriving a number. What you are all doing is dividing deaths by active cases, which is not what they are doing.
What numbers besides total cases and deaths would you like to use at this time? [Reply]
