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Nzoner's Game Room>*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***
Chiefspants 10:55 AM 04-05-2017
Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Molitoth 01:49 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
If we assume no one else would bat Esky leadoff then we win entirely based on Ned. Esky magic!
:-)
[Reply]
Meatloaf 02:39 PM 05-15-2017
I still cannot believe that Uncle Ned continues to start Alex Gordon. His batting avg is now at .152 and his slugging percentage is at .192!!! This actually does the term "slugging percentage" a disservice.

Ned's gotta wake up and start managing. He can start by benching Gordo until he starts making some changes in his approach. The guy simply does the same old thing, night after night after night......and gets the same old miserable results. Ugh.
[Reply]
Pitt Gorilla 02:43 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by Meatloaf:
I still cannot believe that Uncle Ned continues to start Alex Gordon. His batting avg is now at .152 and his slugging percentage is at .192!!! This actually does the term "slugging percentage" a disservice.

Ned's gotta wake up and start managing. He can start by benching Gordo until he starts making some changes in his approach. The guy simply does the same old thing, night after night after night......and gets the same old miserable results. Ugh.
What incentive does he have to change?
[Reply]
BlackHelicopters 02:44 PM 05-15-2017
Is anyone surprised? Gordon got paid.
[Reply]
KChiefs1 03:09 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Doing some research on draft options for KC at #14 in the June Rule IV draft and actually fairly excited about some of the current trends for options for KC (and some good stuff at KC Baseball Prospectus on the two guys I"m going to talk about below).



Coming into the new year, HS SS/SP Hunter Greene and Vanderbilt CF Jeren Kendall were viewed as consensus top 2 picks. Kendall's stock has slid a bit due to some increased K rates at Vanderbilt, to the point he might be available at 14 for Kansas City.



That could be really huge for Kansas City. Kendall is going to stick in CF defensively and has the potential to be a dynamic hitter as well. You could be talking about someone whose best case ranges somewhere between Jackie Bradley, Jr. and George Springer.



His swing and approach would need a little work, but he's an advanced college hitter with good strike zone judgment and is incredibly toolsy. If it all works, he's a .280-.300/20 HR/.375 OBP/.475 SLG/30 SB type in his prime, who plays plus D in CF. His floor would be lower - more of a 4th OF type who needs to be protected against lefties - but the upside and tools KC loves are there.



Another guy who's standing out is Virginia CF Adam Hasely. Hasely has less upside than Kendell - mostly because his power profile is less certain, and he's less likely to stick in CF - but he also has a higher floor. He's an all-around OF type who could play plus defense in a corner, kind of like Adam Eaton (with a little less speed).



Overall, should be an interesting draft. KC has been tied to a lot of HS arms so far, but drafting an advanced college hitter or pitcher probably makes the most sense considering the state of KC's farm system (lacking at advanced levels) and the Royals' track record with HS pitchers (it's not great - they've pulled a few guys through successfully but have thrown a lot of numbers and picks at that spot).



They do have a competitive balance pick this year and will have the No. 15 pool, so there's more flexibility than a year ago.



If the team's recent hot streak doesn't carry them back into contention and they do end up selling, the farm system could jump quite a bit in a short window.



Add a talent like Jeren Kendall to your system through the draft, and move Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Herrera, Soria, and Vargas.... paired with some nice talent at the A+ and A levels, and suddenly your 2020 outlook starts to turn back around.



I'd expect returns to be something like:



Cain - top 50 prospect + top 100 prospect or fringe top 100 prospect + lotto ticket

Moustakas - top 50-75 prospect + fringe top 100

Hosmer - top 100 + lotto ticket

Herrera - top 50 prospect + fringe top 100 prospect + lotto ticket

Vargas - fringe top 100 prospect (though maybe more if he continues to carve) + lotto ticket

Soria - fringe top 100 prospect + lotto ticket



If you move all of them, you're looking at a reload that involves adding 3-4 top 100 guys, 3-4 guys somewhere close to that range, and several lottery tickets. Would be like a shot of adrenaline to the heart of the Royals system.

I'm hoping for 1-2 top 50 with 5-6 top 100 guys with several lottery tickets.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[Reply]
duncan_idaho 04:08 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
I'm hoping for 1-2 top 50 with 5-6 top 100 guys with several lottery tickets.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm working on something I plan to post tonight. It's my "shit went bad, fire sale" best case scenario.

Early teasers:
Herrera and Cain to the Nats
Vargas and Mike Minor to the Astros
Trying to find fits for: Moustakas, Soria, Hosmer. Things have shifted in the markets that might need those guys.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[Reply]
O.city 04:10 PM 05-15-2017
I'd think moustakis would be a tougher sell with his contract issues?
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 04:15 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I'm working on something I plan to post tonight. It's my "shit went bad, fire sale" best case scenario.

Early teasers:
Herrera and Cain to the Nats
Vargas and Mike Minor to the Astros
Trying to find fits for: Moustakas, Soria, Hosmer. Things have shifted in the markets that might need those guys.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Try and coax the cheap ass Marlins into trading and signing Hosmer.
[Reply]
Meatloaf 04:17 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla:
What incentive does he have to change?
You'd think that personal pride would be enough motivation for Gordon to make changes. Certainly he's gotta be embarrassed being at the bottom of the bottom.
[Reply]
KChiefs1 05:14 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I'm working on something I plan to post tonight. It's my "shit went bad, fire sale" best case scenario.

Early teasers:
Herrera and Cain to the Nats
Vargas and Mike Minor to the Astros
Trying to find fits for: Moustakas, Soria, Hosmer. Things have shifted in the markets that might need those guys.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cool. Can't wait.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[Reply]
BWillie 05:20 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by fahrenheit:
Yes and No. On the field he is a liability as a manager. In the clubhouse he has handled this team phenomenally over the years. I was once a huge Ned-hater, and wanted him gone-gone-gone before he and GMDM turned this thing around. I turned into a fan with the success. Ned will always be Ned to me - The awe-schucks dumb schmuck that brought this town a championship and back to back World Series.
Ned Yost is 0% the reason we won a World Series.
[Reply]
duncan_idaho 06:16 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by O.city:
I'd think moustakis would be a tougher sell with his contract issues?

What contract issues? That he's a free agent? He's a rental if traded. Would be more valuable with more control, but no way around that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[Reply]
Unsmooth-Moment 06:21 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Ned Yost is 0% the reason we won a World Series.
His management style let a lot of young guys stay in the lineup and learn. The slow approach I think helped the younger team mature into a champion.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
[Reply]
Chiefspants 06:33 PM 05-15-2017
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Ned Yost is 0% the reason we won a World Series.
Baseball management is just as much if not more about how managers oversees and supports the chemistry of his clubhouse than their in game decisions. Yost has been fantastic in this regard.
[Reply]
KCUnited 08:21 PM 05-15-2017
WS champions and vets still "pressing" 6 weeks into the season is a testament to Ned's handle on the clubhouse.
[Reply]
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