You don't think the Cubs are going to back a Brinks truck up for a pitcher in the off-season? They have no ace on the staff with 2 spots to fill and only Schwarber as a likely young position player that could fetch a TOR guy with an accompanying package of throw ins

Only problem is you are looking at Yu Dervish being the only ace in the pool and the guy is always injured.
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Sure you can, that's why you have to adjust for park/league/defense.

Some years Lester's been better than Quintana. Some year's he's been worse. They've always been comparable and in the end there are a whole lot of metrics that say Quintana has been every bit Lester's equal over the last several years including last season when Quintana actually had a BETTER adjusted FIP than Lester did.

If Quintana is 'nothing special', then you guys paid $25 million/season for a middle of the rotation starter in Jon Lester.
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Lester had the best season of his career before FA and he's pitched like an ace ever since signing, numbers far lower than anything Quintana has posted. He also happens to have a career postseason ERA of 2.63. Obviously the contract won't age well if he continues down his first half path but when you look at what guys like Greinke got to say 150 isn't a bargain is nuts.
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No, they aren't. Not when you adjust for park, league and defense.

Y'know, the very argument you tried to make IN FAVOR of Lester.

You have GOT to stop moving goalposts.

And while post-season matters, that's not why the Cubs paid dearly for Quintana. He cost what he cost because of the 3 extra seasons of control and the innings/consistency/production he will provide. This isn't a rental and that's obviously why WAR does matter here.

If all you care about is the postseason go get Darvish and ride him till he bucks ya. He'd have cost less than Quintana. But clearly that's not the only thing Theo is focused on - he's worried about the rotation going forward and wants a steady arm in it. The fact that Quintana has accumulated more WAR and put up comparable -FIPs over the last 4 years absolutely puts him in Lester's class in terms of value.
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I don't think the Cubs are going to go out in FA and get pay for a FA ace.

Frankly, I don't think they need it.

Next years roation is already four deep: Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, and Montgomery.

So they could go with a prove it type guy, a one year like Anderson.

What I think they are going to do is make another move before the deadline. I'd love them to revist the Fulmer deal. They still have plenty of prospects and he's only 24.

So yes, I would unload talent in my farm system to build my starting rotation for years to come and avoid paying FA contracts for pitchers. If you sign a guy like Gray, you are going to need to be ready to pay him another contract in a few years.
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I think your farm system is largely 'unloaded' already when you're talking that level of player. Y'all don't have the bullets anymore to just move prospects for anything more than the Ervin Santana, Lance Lynn level of pitcher (I'd send y'all Lynn for Candelario, FYI).

I mean I guess you could peddle Happ but you're not getting a cost-controlled young starter for just Happ. So if Schwarber doesn't get you Fulmer, you ready to move Schwarber, Happ and Candelario for Fulmer and Wilson?

If so, what's your OF going forward?

The Cubs are in an undeniably enviable position given the youth of their core, but there's no getting around the fact that recent deals have really sapped their organizational depth. There's not a lot that the Cubs can move out at this point without it starting to sting a bit on the big league roster.
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I'd roll out there every day with Bryant, Almora, and Heyward, and not really worry about it. If Baez can play 3rd base everyday, I'd do it.
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Zobrist back at full-time 2b I presume?

It's easier to find a credible long-term 2b than it is to find a top of the rotation starter. And if you could run Lester - Fulmer - Quintana - Hendricks - Whatever you're in pretty nice shape.

C - Contreras
1b - Rizzo
2b - Zobrist
SS - Russell
3b - Baez
LF - Bryant
CF - Almora
RF - Bryant

Yeah, that lineup's good enough. If you got Wilson back in the deal you have closer insurance for Davis (and a good lefty reliever if you keep Davis). Probably a good deal to make.
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Montgomery is not a starter.

The guy has walked over 4 batters per 9 ever since joining the Cubs and has a 5.46 ERA as a starter.
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They can also play Happ every day at second
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Not if Happ is in the trade and I'm betting that's gonna need to happen.
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If so, so be it.


I like these kids, but as noted above you can always find a warm buddy at 2nd base.
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I think Skip Schumaker and Allen Craig are available.:-)
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I'd flip them Kolten Wong for a bucket of balls and three Al's Italian beef sandwiches. The bucket of balls is negotiable.
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Piscotty is in a line of shitty contracts handed out by Mo.
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