Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Yes but if it plays out that way and we find out Covid-19 has a CFR around .2 and has a fairly easily quantified "at risk" category... we need a serious look at future policy. Our current policy is far too emotionally driven for my tastes. Hopefully this episode will make people more jaded and less hysterical in the future.
And YES hysterical is EXACTLY the correct term.
Worldwide, we have become far too feminized when it comes to matters that should be looked at with unemotional clarity.
I have seen a lot of expert speak on the matter not one has seemed emotional, actually you seem to be reacting to this pretty emotionally [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Maybe once this thing runs its course and 2 years from now the numbers come in you may be right but as of right now almost every expert on pandemics says you are wrong. Who would you put your money on today.
Those numbers aren't from 2 years, they are for the exact same timeline. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
I have seen a lot of expert speak on the matter not one has seemed emotional, actually you seem to be reacting to this pretty emotionally
Originally Posted by Monticore:
I have seen a lot of expert speak on the matter not one has seemed emotional, actually you seem to be reacting to this pretty emotionally
It's not the manner in which it's done, it's the cycle. Over and over again. [Reply]
After 24 years in the medical field my emotions have been repressed to the point that I was barely able to muster a mini fist pump during the Super Bowl , sucks the fun out of things sometimes. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Well aware that, actually. And we probably should have locked down for H1N1.
There should be a measured response strategy that falls in between the minimal response to the 2009-2010 Swine Flu pandemic (other than a few isolated school and summer camp closures, no major societal disruptions) and the COVID-19 pandemic response with the total shutdown of society and the economy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
It also was way more lethal then the regular flu for a year.
I mean I know you want to ignore the math because it doesn't support your theories.
Simple and plain math figures with timeline, infections and deaths is all I am basing my opinion off of and frankly this response doesn't add up.
We will find out if my opinion is wrong or not though there will be discussion for how much the lockdown impacted things, but to act like the data I have posted is just nonsense is frankly stupid. I see stuff every day from media and experts and the timeline that points towards what I am saying being correct.
Pointing out the genesis of the strain is different doesn't make the argument you think it does.
And to answer you question as to why H1N1 spread here so fast, its because it started here.
The math supports me, not you. You've been shown that, but you either don't understand it, or don't want to because it doesn't fit your agenda.
It actually began in Mexico.
Facts are like kryptonite to you, as normal. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
After 24 years in the medical field my emotions have been repressed to the point that I was barely able to muster a mini fist pump during the Super Bowl , sucks the fun out of things sometimes.
Weird I have 2 good friends who work in medicine and they enjoy the shit out of talking about cases they have been involved in. Hard to get them to stop talking about it sometimes. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Fauci is 79 years old... in the high risk group... he should take his own advice and social distance himself.
If you want to stay in fantasy land, and never hear any news that contradicts your view of this virus, you should probably also stay off this thread. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Oh well shit dude, never mind any more discussion because that just proved you are back tracking and an idiot.
I'm not backtracking at all. We did lock down to a certain level for H1N1. A national emergency was declared. And it still killed 12,000 people here. And if we hadn't taken the actions we have for COVID-19, which has worse R0 and estimated CFR, we would most likely exceed that based on the R0 and CFR figures we have.
Thankfully, we'll never know what would have happened if we hadn't. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
There should be a measured response strategy that falls in between the minimal response to the 2009-2010 Swine Flu pandemic (other than a few isolated school and summer camp closures, no major societal disruptions) and the COVID-19 pandemic response with the total shutdown of society and the economy.
What we are doing is measured in proportion to the threat numbers. Hopefully, it'll just be for a month and we'll see the results. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
The math supports me, not you. You've been shown that, but you either don't understand it, or don't want to because it doesn't fit your agenda.
It actually began in Mexico.
Facts are like kryptonite to you, as normal.
No the math doesn't support you and you have already started your pivot with the "we probably should have locked down under H1N1". Yet you say apples and oranges in other comments, no hypocrisy here right?
Yes H1N1 originated in Mexico ( I stand corrected) but blew up in the US.
Edit: We won't agree, I get it. Good night I won't wreck this thread any further with Donger. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Weird I have 2 good friends who work in medicine and they enjoy the shit out of talking about cases they have been involved in. Hard to get them to stop talking about it sometimes.
I love talking about interesting cases after the fact, while you dealing with it real time it is harder , what is interesting for the medical professionals are not usually that fun for the patient.
Working in a small town finding cancers on friends and family , miscarriages etc I did the X-ray that found my moms CA makes it hard to yuck it up. [Reply]
