Significant time in 3 out 9. That's a full 1/3.

And then you add in all the other injuries that have cost him 1-2 games, offseason workouts, the combine, I can keep going.

I'm not being dishonest at all. He's had literally one year where he played the whole season. We're not talking about some scrub here, we're talking about tagging and playing a guy that could prevent us from acquiring other much-needed pieces for the defense.

It's not just the serious injuries, it's the fact that if you make him your franchise player, he has to BE a franchise player. If he misses 1 game next year and it happens to be the AFCCG, that was money wasted. If he repeats 2018 but so does the secondary, because they couldn't afford upgrades, that was money wasted.

I don't want them to pay Dee Ford $15+M in 2019. They have too many needs and are too close to a Super Bowl to play around with that kind of risk. I don't like the idea, I'm not going to like the idea, and that's that.
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Justin Houston has missed significant time in 3 of the last 4 seasons. That’s also a full 1/3 of the time of him being healthy.
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Technically it’s 2 out of 10 because you left our his Fr year :-)

2 of those 3 were in college.

Does Ford have an injury history? Absolutely, but it’s not as bad as you’re making it out to be and I feel like his pass rush ability will not be replaced in one offseason, so I’m willing to roll the dice on one more season.
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I'm not advocating for Justin Houston, am I?
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I don't think he played his freshman year. :-)

The reason why I continue to include college is because it extends the pattern. If he had played 4 years of college ball with no significant injuries, one could make the case that his stint with the Chiefs is bad luck or something. But that's just not the case, he's been hurt a lot.

As for replacing his pass rush, we're just on two different sides of the coin. You're operating from the headspace that he can repeat 2018 pretty easily so losing him is a big deal.

I don't see any reason to be confident right now that he can repeat 2018 easily. Nothing in his history suggests he can do it. That's a lot of money for a maybe. If he gets hurt again, his pass rush ability will be zero - that's pretty easy to replace with 15M dollars.
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But it’s one or the other. In a perfect world we’d get rid of both and get a pick for Ford, but you said it yourself this is a SB contender and it’s highly unlikely that we lose both and the defense gets significantly better IMO
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We had both of them last year and couldn't get off the field, or get any pressure, in the AFCCG. And all-world pass rush isn't what it used to be with the way the rules are. It's way too easy to neutralize a good pass rush especially when said pass rush is horrible against the run. I want a more balanced defense.

I'd let them both go and dump 75% of that money into the LB's and secondary. Use the rest to try to partially replace their production and move on.
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This.

Ford isn’t even our best pass rusher at this point. That’s Jones.
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with gap assignment load decreasing - I think Nnadi and the like will do fine. Trade or whatever the big named lineman and focus on an addition at LB, Safety and perhaps a corner. Draft a big named WR then sell out on the D w/ the remaining picks. That'd be my jizz-worthy scenario.
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I mean we had all of them and didn’t win the Super Bowl sure but some are acting like we didn’t make the playoffs.

We lost in overtime of the afc game. They’re obviously pretty close.

You’ve got a whole lot of draft picks and free agency to put in a player or two in the defense. Plus after reading more about the new staff they’re bringing in, damn. The defense is going to improve just from that fellas.
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And if we didn’t have both we would’ve probably been a WC team and would not have even made it to the AFCCG.
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That's entirely possible. I don't buy it - the QB threw for 50 TDs and 5000 yards - but sure, it's possible.

It's also possible that last year was Dee Ford's best effort he'll ever give and hoping for him to recreate it is fool's gold.

We'll find out soon enough.
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Yeah, they're so close that one player getting paid $15M could be the difference. Too bad that guy has such a lengthy injury history. I mean, imagine if Eric Berry hasn't missed ANOTHER season last year? What could have been?

It's too bad I wasn't around back then. Houston and Berry would have already been gone. :-)
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I would be on the bandwagon of tagging and trading him for sure, especially if they don't plan to do a long term deal. I think they'll tag and keep him, so I've pretty much resigned myself to that. I understand it, even if it's not what I would do.

They feel they're right on the edge of a SB and don't want to get rid of a potential elite player. I get it. I also get the injury concerns.

But I think where they're coming from is that while it's a risk to keep Ford because of his injury history (i'd guess they've put him thru physicals and doctor visits and what not so they'll have a pretty good idea where he's at there, better than we do) they're willing to take the risk because of the upside. If they get a nice offer for a tag and trade they'd do it, but pass rushers are so valuable, they'll chance it and keep him.

Letting him walk is a risk as well in that while you free up the money and picks etc, you've got to bring in players to reproduce the production. You let him go, try and replace him and fail and the pass rush is meh, you could fuck up another season.

So it's risky either way.
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Yeah, when that one player is a pass rusher that lead the league in pressures and IIRC, turnovers, he could very well be the difference.
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