Originally Posted by Megatron96:
See what I mean about out-dated over-generalized stats? This will be the narrative next season as well . . . "the Chiefs have the 26th worst run defense in the league . . ." nonsense nonsense nonsense . . .
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Did you not watch the game yesterday? You didn't, did you?
You really think that Derrick Henry couldn't get going but your guys are going to dominate?
Niners do have a better playcaller and more weapons in general than the Titans. Chiefs looked pretty vulnerable on play action this weekend. I would expect Shanahan to take advantage of it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Did you not watch the game yesterday? You didn't, did you?
You really think that Derrick Henry couldn't get going but your guys are going to dominate?
I mean, this is apples and oranges really.
The Titans essentially tell you what they are going to do and you just have to find a way to stop it. Its tough, because Derrick Henry is a beast, but their offense isn't super complicated in that way.
The 49ers offense just disguises everything. Not to mention Juice and Kittle, which is like having two extra OL out there blocking.
I'm not claiming the 49ers running game is better than the Titans(although they were statistically during the regular season), but I do think its probably more difficult to defend.
Either way, pointing to the Titans game doesn't make much sense to me, because our run offenses aren't similar at all. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hern:
Don’t use stats to point out abt flaws of the Chiefs. Got cha.
Please explain without using stats why Mahomes is better than Watson?
Normally, after reading the obvious ignorance of your first four posts, I would put you on 'ignore.'
But I'm bored.
So . . .
I'll point out that I didn't say what you are inferring. At all.
What I said was that posting that the Chiefs have the "26th worst rush defense in the league," isn't accurate, because it includes the first 8 weeks of the season, and doesn't adequately describe their improvement since week 7 or 8.
Conversely, our running defense isn't top 3 either, which it would appear to be if one just looked at their stats from the month of December, for example.
The truth of it is, that while we had a pretty tough schedule for the first 10 weeks or so, it got a lot easier down the stretch, with the real exception of the Chargers, who were ranked 10th offensively overall. And in spite of their terrible turn-over ratio, were somewhat of a tough out.
So in reality, our run defense isn't really 26th anymore. It couldn't be, or we couldn't have held Derrick Henry to just 69 yards on Sunday. And anyone who watched them play in the first 6 weeks vs. the last four games can easily see without even looking at the stat lines that the Chiefs defense is significantly better at stopping the run than they were in September. Our DL is lining up better more consistently, our LBs are aligning themselves better, they're attacking the gaps better, our DEs are setting the edges better, and so on.
Again, they aren't perfect; they're just better than what they were.
And someone else can find and post it if they care to (I'm whacked on Nyquil right now, so I'm not going to) but if you look up the advanced weighted stat analyses available, you'd find our run defense is somewhere around 10th over the last 8 weeks or so. Not 26th.
But if you want to believe that the Chiefs' run D is 26th, go right ahead. Then when we hold your RBs to something like 100-125 yards, you can blame your OC more easily I guess.
But I want you to remember this: your RBs will run pretty well in the first half. But sometime towards the end of the half or early in the third quarter, our defense will start plugging holes. And your RBs won't be nearly as effective for the rest of the game. And if Pat finds his groove in the third, we're going to get up on your defense by 14 points. And you'll abandon the run. And then we'll see if Jimmy G. can go toe-to-toe with Pat Mahomes. Throw for throw, TD for TD. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Well . . . you seem nice.
Seriously . . .
I don't know which team is better. yet. If I decide to break down the numbers and the film, I might be able to come up with an idea. But my eye test says that the 49ers are a more complete team. I give the Niners the nod on defense, though I don't think it's as wide a gap as it was 10 weeks ago. Or even 4 weeks ago. This defense has come further than I thought possible in one season.
But it's not perfect. It does have holes, such as at MLB. And at CB. And right now with the loss of Thornhill we have a bit of a hole at safety.
Obviously, the Niners have a much better run game. But our defense has faced tandem speed rushers, this season a few times. No one quite as fast as Mostert and Breida, but we faced Breida last year. I expect Spagnuolo to have some ideas for how to contain them better than your previous opponents. We won't stop them entirely, but I don't believe that Spags will let them run for 225 yards either.
What your secondary has to do is keep Pat from picking them apart. No one has done that. Ever. Belichick managed to do it for a half. Twice. And that's it.
I'm curious to see what your DC comes up with. I know it will involve pressure, because that's the strength of your passing defense. But I also know that Reid has already come up several plans for how to neutralize that pass rush.
And then there's Pat. The #1 QB against the blitz. The #1 QB against zone coverage. #3 against man. #1 passing QB when scrambling.
I think the first half will be a dogfight. The last two teams we faced couldn't generate consistent pressure. SF won't have that problem. They will get pressure on Pat. It will probably fluster him initially. We might even be trailing at the half. But he'll figure it out. And he'll score 32-35 points.
Then what will Jimmy do? Is he going to be the guy that throws up a couple INTs or is he better than that now, and he plays a clean game?
It'll be interesting.
Totally agree with this as well. I respect the hell out of the 49ers and they can absolutely win the SB. This game is a toss up hence the 1 pt spread [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Did you not watch the game yesterday? You didn't, did you?
You really think that Derrick Henry couldn't get going but your guys are going to dominate?
You obviously didn't watch the 49ers run game all season.
The 49ers ranked 2nd in the run game during the season.
Derrick Henry? Really ?
The 49ers are not the Texans or the Titans they are an offense that the Chiefs 26th ranked Defense has never seen all year.
Mahomes is good...very good but without a decent run game behind him and with a weak defense ? That trip to Miami will not end well for the Chiefs.
The media is blowing up the Chiefs offense and the 49er defense along with the 49er run game. There is a reason why nobody is taking the Chiefs defense seriously. It's because they do not have one.
