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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
SupDock 05:11 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Shiver Me Timbers:
Shit is slowing down
we good
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2178354...-biophysicist/
Did you read the article?

****************
China did great work and managed to gain complete control of the virus, Levitt said. “Currently, I am most worried about the US. It must isolate as many people as possible to buy time for preparations. Otherwise, it can end up in a situation where 20,000 infected people will descend on the nearest hospital at the same time and the healthcare system will collapse.”

Israel currently does not have enough cases to provide the data needed to make estimates, Levitt said, but from what he can tell, the Ministry of Health is dealing with the pandemic in a correct, positive way. “The more severe the defensive measures taken, the more they will buy time to prepare for needed treatment and develop a vaccine.”

Levitt avoids making global forecasts. In China, he said, the number of new infections will soon reach zero, and South Korea is past the median point and can already see the end. Regarding the rest of the world, it is still hard to tell, he said. “It will end when all those who are sick will only meet people they have already infected. The goal is not to reach the situation the cruise ship experienced.”
[Reply]
jjjayb 05:11 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
You can't rule it out but I think that has to be a worst case scenario type of number. Keep in mind this is also in a letter that is asking for $1bil and expansion of several federal programs. While I have not qualms about giving the money and such if I were going to ask for money I would also paint the worst case scenario.

But if his contention is that even with all the social distancing and what not that you still have a better than 50% chance of getting it then something doesn't smell right.
That was my point. He threw out this crazy number while asking for money. Politician gotta politician. But some here think you're being crazy for asking for any bit of evidence to support that giant number that nobody else is throwing out there. He's saying California alone is going to have more cases of Covid in 8 weeks then the rest of the whole entire country will have of the regular flu for the entire year.

Extrapolating that, it would mean we would have 150 million cases of Covid in the U.S. in 8 weeks. It's bullshit to throw that number out there. It will only serve to feed into the fear and panic.
[Reply]
FloridaMan88 05:11 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
Gov. Newsome just said that 56% of Californians, or 25.6 million, will be infected in the next 8 weeks.
Newsome desperately wants to declare martial law apparently by exaggerating the threat.
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 05:11 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
That's globally. I know that California likes to sing "We are world!" but they aren't.

:-)
Well again, it’s just math.

Change the variables and you’ll get different numbers which is why they’re trying to get the rate of spread down. Just adding one day to the doubling makes a huge impact in your final number.

And I agree with everyone that it’s an absolutely worst case scenario that is unlikely to be realized. My only point was that it has happened like this in other places and, if not mitigated, could happen here.
[Reply]
eDave 05:13 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I see shit like this and I'm ready to just give up.. Like, who even cares.

I was feeling optimistic today. Now... Shit.
Call me bud. I'll cheer your ass up.
[Reply]
candyman 05:14 PM 03-19-2020
So with all these deaths that are happening and social distancing are people still having funerals?
[Reply]
burt 05:14 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by eDave:
Call me bud. I'll cheer your ass up.
Okay, Bud.

Nope...not cheered up....
[Reply]
Donger 05:15 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Well again, it’s just math.

Change the variables and you’ll get different numbers which is why they’re trying to get the rate of spread down. Just adding one day to the doubling makes a huge impact in your final number.

And I agree with everyone that it’s an absolutely worst case scenario that is unlikely to be realized. My only point was that it has happened like this in other places and, if not mitigated, could happen here.
Yes, I ran the numbers myself, too. But we haven't seen consistent, day after day, doubling anywhere. Even China or Italy, right?
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 05:16 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
“The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day – that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyse numbers and that is exponential growth,” he was quoted as saying. At this rate, the entire world should have been infected within 90 days, he added.

But then, the trend changed. When Levitt started analysing the data on February 1, Hubei had 1,800 new cases each day and within six days this number reached 4,700, he said. “And then, on February 7, the number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop. A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
Amazing what happens when they lock people inside their homes!

I really hope this can be duplicated without being stuffed into a box.
[Reply]
jjjayb 05:16 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Well again, it’s just math.

Change the variables and you’ll get different numbers which is why they’re trying to get the rate of spread down. Just adding one day to the doubling makes a huge impact in your final number.

And I agree with everyone that it’s an absolutely worst case scenario that is unlikely to be realized. My only point was that it has happened like this in other places and, if not mitigated, could happen here.
What country has had 56% of the population get it? I don't remember reading about 500 million people in China getting it.
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 05:17 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yes, I ran the numbers myself, too. But we haven't seen consistent, day after day, doubling anywhere. Even China or Italy, right?
The doubling isn’t day to day. More like every 4-5 days, China and S Korea notwithstanding.
[Reply]
Titty Meat 05:18 PM 03-19-2020
Dominos is giving me the squirts and I'm down to half a roll of TP
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 05:19 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by jjjayb:
What country has had 56% of the population get it?
Yeah none. That’s why I said I agree that is BS and could only happen if everyone was running around going to meetups with uninfected which isn’t happening. I’m not doom and gloom.
[Reply]
petegz28 05:19 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by jjjayb:
What country has had 56% of the population get it?
I am gonna nitpick here a bit again, since I don't understand numbers but the current estimated population of the state of CA is 39.94 million. 56% of that is 21.8 million. He said 25 million or roughly 56%.

Okay, just had to toss that out there....
[Reply]
Donger 05:21 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
The doubling isn’t day to day. More like every 4-5 days, China and S Korea notwithstanding.
Oops, my mistake, sorry. I get the math, but we do have some pretty solid case history from other countries who got the bug long before we did to work with, and I simply don't see it.

I think we should start a new thread giving predictions of total US cases. The winner gets a lifetime supply of TP.
[Reply]
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