NFL odds: After Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes is now the overwhelming NFL MVP favorite
Frank Schwab 2 hrs ago
We can cease and desist with any debate about someone other than Patrick Mahomes being the NFL MVP favorite.
You’ll hear people argue that Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Alvin Kamara or anyone else should be “in the conversation,” but the only real talk is that the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is the overwhelming favorite until further notice. Everyone else is vying for NFL offensive player of the year, though Mahomes should probably win that too.
Sunday night’s heroics, leading a game-winning drive over the Las Vegas Raiders everyone knew was coming, solidified Mahomes’ position. He’s the best player in football and he’s having a phenomenal year.
The odds at BetMGM reflect that.
Mahomes is -118 to win MVP at BetMGM. Next on the list is Wilson at +350. Aaron Rodgers is +550 and nobody else is less than 12-to-1. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I really think if we are being unbiased its Rodgers right now. But its close and an amazing game by Mahomes or a dud by Rodgers would change things. You take Rodgers off GB and they are not good. You take Mahomes off the Chiefs they still win 11 games.
Rodgers doesn't have the weapons Mahomes has and hes still balling. Its really something. I thought he was about done when he came off of a down year.
Rodgers is also #1 in QBR. You cant go wrong with either and the selling point for Mahomes is the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL
We’ve already seen both of those occur (Rodgers dud, Mahomes amazing game) against the exact same team! [Reply]
Originally Posted by mac459:
Who is the QB while the Chiefs are winning 11 without Mahomes?
Nobody on this current roster. With this OL and no running game, the only successful QB would be someone who is very mobile and can throw accurately on the run. Standing in the pocket and throwing behind this OL is not sustainable.
Also, the defense isn't good enough to carry the team to 11 wins. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I really think if we are being unbiased its Rodgers right now. But its close and an amazing game by Mahomes or a dud by Rodgers would change things. You take Rodgers off GB and they are not good. You take Mahomes off the Chiefs they still win 11 games.
Rodgers doesn't have the weapons Mahomes has and hes still balling. Its really something. I thought he was about done when he came off of a down year.
Rodgers is also #1 in QBR. You cant go wrong with either and the selling point for Mahomes is the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL
Of course, these games completely change without Mahomes and game planning around him, but still, take out those variables for argument's sake...
@Chargers... probably a loss?
Raiders... loss
Panthers... could see this as a loss
@Raiders... loss
TB.. could see this as a loss
Denver... classic 'everything goes wrong against a subpar team' kind of game to lose.
Dolphins... loss
Saints... loss
They might not be as bad as the Packers without Rodgers, but they're right back to "let's squeak into the playoffs and see what happens" this season without Mahomes. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I really think if we are being unbiased its Rodgers right now. But its close and an amazing game by Mahomes or a dud by Rodgers would change things. You take Rodgers off GB and they are not good. You take Mahomes off the Chiefs they still win 11 games.
Rodgers doesn't have the weapons Mahomes has and hes still balling. Its really something. I thought he was about done when he came off of a down year.
Rodgers is also #1 in QBR. You cant go wrong with either and the selling point for Mahomes is the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL
They are basically tied in QBR. The Packers have barely beaten any teams with a winning record. Suggests that he has padded stats against bad teams. There is a component of QBR called PAA: Points Added Above Average QB. Mahomes is blowing Rodgers out of the water in this metric.
2020 Mahomes on pace to finish around 95 PAA, similar to Tom Brady’s 2007 season. 2020 Rodgers on pace to finish around 77 PAA, similar to Aaron’s 2011 season. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I really think if we are being unbiased its Rodgers right now. But its close and an amazing game by Mahomes or a dud by Rodgers would change things. You take Rodgers off GB and they are not good. You take Mahomes off the Chiefs they still win 11 games.
Rodgers doesn't have the weapons Mahomes has and hes still balling. Its really something. I thought he was about done when he came off of a down year.
Rodgers is also #1 in QBR. You cant go wrong with either and the selling point for Mahomes is the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL
Never forget Mahomes's first NFL start. Albert Wilson and Demetrius Harris were his main two receiving weapons. Sherman was his RB. Several backups on the O-line. Denver had their starters on defense going even on the last drive of the game. Mahomes can make a mean chicken salad despite not having the best ingredients in the fridge. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
They are basically tied in QBR. The Packers have barely beaten any teams with a winning record. Suggests that he has padded stats against bad teams. There is a component of QBR called PAA: Points Added Above Average QB. Mahomes is blowing Rodgers out of the water in this metric.
2020 Mahomes on pace to finish around 95 PAA, similar to Tom Brady’s 2007 season. 2020 Rodgers on pace to finish around 77 PAA, similar to Aaron’s 2011 season.
This is a fantastic rebuttal actually. Well done. I'm not familiar with this metric but if its anything like war in baseball I'm on board. Id be interested in how exactly they calculate it because unlike baseball there are tons of playa in football that could be up for interpretation for how well a QB played them [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I really think if we are being unbiased its Rodgers right now. But its close and an amazing game by Mahomes or a dud by Rodgers would change things. You take Rodgers off GB and they are not good. You take Mahomes off the Chiefs they still win 11 games.
Rodgers doesn't have the weapons Mahomes has and hes still balling. Its really something. I thought he was about done when he came off of a down year.
Rodgers is also #1 in QBR. You cant go wrong with either and the selling point for Mahomes is the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL
If you were to put Rodgers with us and Mahomes with the Packers, then the Packers are probably undefeated and we would have lost at least 3 of the last 6 games and lost to LA.
Rodgers would probably not even be the QB right now because our O line would have gotten him killed. The O line for the Packers is such a huge advantage that it completely erases the difference in skill positions. The Chiefs were having trouble running the ball when we were going against a 5-6 man box and a lot of that has to do with our God awful run blocking.
Could you imagine Rodgers playing for us this season and teams knew we couldn't run the ball so they constantly blitzed Rodgers or they dropped 7 into coverage because they knew a 4 man rush could generate enough pressure. He'd be dead or he'd be having a mediocre year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Coogs:
Never forget Mahomes's first NFL start. Albert Wilson and Demetrius Harris were his main two receiving weapons. Sherman was his RB. Several backups on the O-line. Denver had their starters on defense going even on the last drive of the game. Mahomes can make a mean chicken salad despite not having the best ingredients in the fridge.
Its not a knock on Mahomes. Its reality. Mahomes and Rodgers are the Top 2 QBs that ever existed in talent. Mahomes would throw 80 TDs if he played in the no risk it no biscuit Bruce Arians offense with (3) #1 WRs [Reply]
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
If you were to put Rodgers with us and Mahomes with the Packers, then the Packers are probably undefeated and we would have lost at least 3 of the last 6 games and lost to LA.
Rodgers would probably not even be the QB right now because our O line would have gotten him killed. The O line for the Packers is such a huge advantage that it completely erases the difference in skill positions. The Chiefs were having trouble running the ball when we were going against a 5-6 man box and a lot of that has to do with our God awful run blocking.
Could you imagine Rodgers playing for us this season and teams knew we couldn't run the ball so they constantly blitzed Rodgers or they dropped 7 into coverage because they knew a 4 man rush could generate enough pressure. He'd be dead or he'd be having a mediocre year.
I doubt that. You seriously aren't accounting for how good Travis Kelce is. Travis Kelce is as good at TE as Mahomes is at being QB. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I really think if we are being unbiased its Rodgers right now. But its close and an amazing game by Mahomes or a dud by Rodgers would change things.
Aaron Rodgers did have a legit awful game this season... vs Tampa when he had 160 yards passing, 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s in a blowout loss (the same Tampa team that Mahomes savagely lit up).
Mahomes “worst” game was vs the Dolphins and he still had almost 400 yards passing, 2 TD’s and a win.
Also the Chiefs aren’t winning 11 games with Henne or Moore at QB.
Originally Posted by BWillie:
This is a fantastic rebuttal actually. Well done. I'm not familiar with this metric but if its anything like war in baseball I'm on board. Id be interested in how exactly they calculate it because unlike baseball there are tons of playa in football that could be up for interpretation for how well a QB played them
Yes, I assume it’s similar to WAR. The fact Mahomes is on pace for the 2007 Brady season is pretty special. Rodgers’ pace is no slouch either. Similar to his 2011 MVP year which was also very special. You can’t go wrong picking either guy. [Reply]