It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine?
2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen?
Pending Free Agents:
1B | Eric Hosmer | San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out)
Spoiler!
(DI's Guess: Texas Rangers, 6, $118 million)
3B | Mike Moustaskas | Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million
Spoiler!
(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 5, $98 million)
CF | Lorenzo Cain | Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million
Spoiler!
(DI's Guess: San Francisco Giants, 4, $68 million)
RP | Mike Minor | Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million
Spoiler!
(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 3, $35 million+ $12 million team option
SP | Jason Vargas | New York Mets, 2, $16 million
Spoiler!
(DI's Guess: Baltimore Orioles, 2, $29 million)
SS | Alcides Escobar | Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million
In case I, picks would be #32, 33, and 34, if Alex Cobb of Rays signs for $50 million guaranteed.
Kansas City will likely have 5 of the top 40-45 picks in the draft, and the bonus pool money should rival that of the teams drafting 1-3 in the 2017 draft. This should give KC tremendous flexibility in acquiring talent that otherwise might slip or not be "signable."
2018 Draft Names to Watch
RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia.
Spoiler!
Possibly goes top 10 but is a big, physical SP with ace potential. Moore and co. will be all over him if he slips a bit and could offer top 10 money at No. 16
OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI
Spoiler!
Kelenic is the top prep bat, toolsy OF. Royals would be ecstatic to have shot at him.
1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL).
Spoiler!
Tremendous raw power, best in HS bats. Royals typically like HS arms or HS bats with "special" tools. He qualifies.
RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga).
Spoiler!
Another big, physical specimen with huge upside. More likely to be available mid-first than Rocker.
ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But again - no he didn't.
If he was consistently blowing leads in high% situations, his WPA would be a mess. If he came into a bunch of 8th inning games with 2 run leads (what, an 80% likely win) and turned them into 1 or 2 run defecits, that would cripple his WPA. He did have some games like that and those dropped some nasty numbers on his WPA (we'll get to those later). If he did that often, he damn sure wouldn't have held a positive WPA on the season.
Like I said - nobody likes their 7th/8th inning relievers because when they do their job it's just a 'ho hum' moment. But 48 times in 59 games, Joakim Soria left the mound with his team having higher odds of winning than they had when he entered. So more than 80% of the time he took the mound, he did his job, high leverage and low leverage included.
But he had 4 REALLY tough outings in there (4/28, 5/29, 7/31 and 8/15), two of which were against divisional opponents - Min and Det, the other 2 against 2 recent playoff foes for KC - Bal and Oak. So those stand out something awful.
No, there's not a single stat that tells the whole story and I'm not arguing that there is. But what I am arguing is that the stats on aggregate absolutely do tell A story and that story is that of a relatively forgettable, slightly above average reliever. That's all Soria is. His numbers say that. His gamelogs say that. His stuff says that.
Everything says that but your memory and frankly, we fans are not reliable narrators.
Soria had a lot of bad luck that doesn't show up on the stat sheet. [Reply]
A lot of Soria hate is overreaction from fans who for three years got spoiled from rarely seeing a lead blown after the 6th inning.
And I don't mean that in a condescending way. I mean, when you have a historic shutdown bullpen for such an usual amount of time, you get so comfortable that it naturally becomes a shock when the situation reverts to more normal levels. [Reply]
Originally Posted by siberian khatru:
A lot of Soria hate is overreaction from fans who for three years got spoiled from rarely seeing a lead blown after the 6th inning.
And I don't mean that in a condescending way. I mean, when you have a historic shutdown bullpen for such an usual amount of time, you get so comfortable that it naturally becomes a shock when the situation reverts to more normal levels.
That also has a lot to do with it.
That terminator bullpen you guys had with Herrera, Davis and Holland in their primes put together the best season or two of relief work as a trio arguably in baseball history. They were unreal.
But that's not happening again. Ever. Teams can keep trying to assemble super 'pens but reliever volatility says the odds of them ever having 3 guys put together years like that simultaneously are pretty much nil regardless of how much money they spend.
Soria was just...normal. He had his bad days but he had far more good ones. The problem for Jack was that Royals fans weren't used to guys having their bad days because his predecessors simply didn't. They were machines. [Reply]
Originally Posted by sedated:
Maybe this fanbase notices it more because 2014/2015 success was based on doing all the small things right.
Same with Soria - when you have 2-3 years of an absolutely unhittable bullpen, giving up a lead in the 7th is just something that is completely foreign.
Originally Posted by siberian khatru:
A lot of Soria hate is overreaction from fans who for three years got spoiled from rarely seeing a lead blown after the 6th inning.
And I don't mean that in a condescending way. I mean, when you have a historic shutdown bullpen for such an usual amount of time, you get so comfortable that it naturally becomes a shock when the situation reverts to more normal levels.
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
Soria was 2nd in the AL in blown saves. He was shit no matter how much polish you break out.
7 blown saves in back to back years? Great trade.
Will you still consider it a great trade if Alexander puts up 10 wins worth of value over the next five seasons, Oaks and Mejia give KC nothing, and Soria performs roughly on par with the 2017 version of himself?
Because if that happens, this becomes a salary dump gone very very wrong. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Will you still consider it a great trade if Alexander puts up 10 wins worth of value over the next five seasons, Oaks and Mejia give KC nothing, and Soria performs roughly on par with the 2017 version of himself?
Because if that happens, this becomes a salary dump gone very very wrong.
I guess we also need to factor in what they do with the 8 million saved. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
Soria was 2nd in the AL in blown saves. He was shit no matter how much polish you break out.
7 blown saves in back to back years? Great trade.
This. He's blown 14 saves last 2 years alone. Our team blew only 12 in 2014.
32 in 2015 which surprised me, Herrera 8 by his lonesome [Reply]
