Warning: There are parts of this article that will anger you even more about Matheny:
Redbird Reset: Behold the impact ‘The Shildt Effect’ is having on the Cardinals
By Bernie Miklasz Apr 15, 2019
After opening the season with three losses in four games at Milwaukee, the Cardinals have sorted through their issues and made adjustments.
The preliminary results are encouraging. Not only did the Cards rebound from that losing weekend in Milwaukee to win eight of their next 11 games, they’ve shown improvement in multiple areas.
That said, it’s obviously premature to make firm conclusions. The Cardinals (9-6) had played only 15 games as they opened a three-game set at Miller Park on Monday night. Their team identity remains in the formative stage.
We’ll get into some of that later. But for now, I’m prepared to offer one opinion that, in my view, shouldn’t be written off as small-sample drivel.
Here goes: Manager Mike Shildt is exactly what the Cardinals’ front office hoped he would be. Shildt led the Cardinals to a 41-28 record after replacing the dismissed Mike Matheny following a dreadful home loss to the Reds on July 14.
Shildt cleaned up the Cardinals and got them into contention. A late fade cost them a playoff spot, but St. Louis tied for the most wins in the National League from the time Shildt took over as manager to the end of the season. And Shildt’s fine work was noticed; he finished fourth in the NL Manager of the Year voting.
With Sunday’s 9-5 victory over the Reds in Mexico, the Cardinals were 16 games over .500 (50-34) since Shildt first began the post-Matheny cleanup.
It probably doesn’t seem like a big deal until you remember that the Cardinals had a .480 winning percentage in Matheny’s final 102 games. By comparison, Shildt’s .595 winning percentage represents considerable improvement.
I want to focus on a couple of particulars that should be of special interest to Cardinals fans that spent two or three years complaining about their team’s appallingly clumsy defense and goofy baserunning.
Both areas are sharper, better and stronger under Shildt. Perfect? No. Still a source of irritation at times? Yes. But let’s take a closer look at what I like to refer to as “The Shildt Effect.”
The improved defense
The Cardinals aren’t all the way there; they must reduce the number of errors. But Shildt has made a major impact in his deployment of defensive shifts. Matheny had an aversion to shifting, and the Cardinals had only three defensive runs saved (DRS), total, in his last three full seasons as manager (2015-17).
But as play got underway Monday, the 2019 Cardinals were second in the NL, tied for second in the majors, with seven DRS on shifts. Yes, Shildt’s Cardinals already had saved four more runs via the shift in 15 games this year than Matheny’s teams had saved over a three-season period.
But that’s only part of a much larger picture. It isn’t that Shildt overloads his defense with a huge volume of shifts. He’s discerning and smart about it.
No question, Shildt puts his defense in more shifts than we had come to expect from Matheny. According to Statcast data pulled from the superb Baseball Savant site, the Cardinals used shifts on 7.8 percent of opponents’ plate appearances in 2016, and deployed them only 2.9 percent of the time in 2017.
Shildt increased the usage of shifts after becoming manager last season, but even then, the 2018 Cardinals ranked 29th in the majors with a shift rate of 4.4 percent. Shildt was reluctant to shift into overdrive until he had an offseason, and his first spring training, to educate his players on the value of deploying shifts.
Having been schooled by Shildt and the coaching staff, the Cardinals are shifting more in the early weeks of 2019. But the number of shifts — 12.6 percent of opponents’ plate appearances — isn’t substantial. In fact, that percentage ranks 25th among the 30 teams.
What really stands out is the success the team is having when Shildt moves fielders around. The Cardinals’ net gain of seven DRS — on a relatively low number of shifts — tells us a lot about the intelligent approach being applied by the manager.
Meanwhile, take a glimpse of the DRS via shifts elsewhere in the NL when compared to the frequency of shifts put into place.
The Diamondbacks have nine DRS on shifts to lead the league, but they have a shift rate of 31 percent, considerably higher than St. Louis.
The Marlins have minus-1 shift DRS despite using the shift on 50 percent of their opponents’ plate appearances.
The Brewers have four DRS on shifts despite using shifts 44.5 percent of the time. The Dodgers have four DRS on a shift rate of 34 percent.
The Pirates have utilized the shift on 27.5 percent of opposing plate appearances, saving just one run. The Giants: three DRS on a shift rate of 21 percent. The Phillies and Mets have used shifts at a slightly higher rate than St. Louis but both teams are minus-1 in shift-based DRS.
As you can see, it doesn’t matter how often a manager turns to the shift. It’s all about the shift being implemented as an effective strategy. And Shildt is clearly doing that.
For the Cardinals to rank 25th in shifts-deployed percentage — only to be among the top three MLB teams in DRS using shifts — tells me that Shildt knows what he’s doing. Call it “shift efficiency.”
It isn’t just defensive shifts, though. Through Sunday, the Cardinals ranked third in the NL with 12 DRS overall. And according to Baseball Prospectus, the Cardinals were second in the majors in park-adjusted defensive efficiency (PADE), and third in defensive efficiency on ground balls, getting an out on 80.5 percent of the grounders hit to them.
Opportunistic baserunning
This one floors me. For this math exercise, I’m using the data at (the subscription-based) Bill James Online.
Through the first 15 games, the Cardinals were second in the majors with a net baserunning gain of plus-21. That combines base-stealing gain and base-runner advancement on non-steals.
To put this into perspective, consider the Cardinals’ net base-running gain in Matheny’s final five full seasons as manager:
2013: minus-15
2014: minus-50
2015: minus-27
2016: minus-16
2017: minus-10
I added that up for you: that’s
minus-118 on the bases over a five-season stretch.
And the 2019 Cardinals already are at a plus-21. They were smarter as runners after Shildt took over last season. But given more time to work on the finer points, Shildt and his staff have dramatically increased the base-running acumen of their players.
For those who love stolen bases, here’s a nugget for you: Under Shildt, the Cardinals have a stolen-base success rate of 76.5 percent, including nine of 11 this season. The Cardinals had a base-stealing success rate of 65 percent during Matheny’s six-plus seasons as manager — the worst in the NL over that time.
The upgraded defense and baserunning aren’t flukes. This is the result of hard work, keen attention to detail and more enlightened judgment on the basepaths.
The Shildt Effect is real.
Now, let’s get to the next topic …
Forming an identity
Just a brief follow-up from something I mentioned early in this piece. The Cardinals are developing a bit of a performance personality.
In addition to the tuned-up defense and more alert baserunning …
… they’re feisty. Five of the Cardinals’ first nine wins were comeback victories; no other team in the NL Central had more than three entering Monday.
Perhaps the plate-discipline lessons taught by Jeff Albert, the new hitting instructor, are starting to click in. Yeah, you can toss this into the “small-sample” file, but in their first five games of the season, Cards hitters had a plagued strikeout rate of 31 percent. Over their last 10 games (leading into the Milwaukee series), the Cardinals had a strikeout rate of 21 percent.
The offense is power-heavy, which isn’t unusual based on contemporary standards. But at 47 percent, the Cardinals rank second in the majors in the percentage of hits that have gone for extra bases. And they are sixth in the majors with an AB/HR of 21.2 percent.
The bullpen appears to be settling down. (One bad habit hasn’t gone away, which I’ll cover later on.) Over their last 11 games through Sunday, the Cardinals had a 3.07 bullpen ERA that ranked fifth-best in the majors since April 1.
The rotation, well, not sure what the identity is there. Still a work in progress.
The week in review
Three positives
1. Marcell Ozuna: As the Cardinals opened their series in Milwaukee, the flamboyant left fielder had five homers, two doubles, six runs and 11 RBIs in his previous eight games.
2. Adam Wainwright: After giving up three runs in the first inning of his season debut, Wainwright has allowed four earned runs in his last 15 innings (2.40 ERA), with 16 strikeouts and two unintentional walks. He’s 37. He was on pitcher life support for most of 2018, and was re-signed by the Cardinals at a $2 million salary for 2019. This could evolve into a very nice comeback story.
3. John Gant and John Brebbia: Through Sunday the two right-handed relievers had combined to face 74 batters over 21 1/3 innings. They had been scratched for just five hits and one earned run (0.42 ERA). Sure, their combined 11 walks have created some suspense — but nothing wrong with a few thrills along the way if the results are sound.
Honorable mentions: Fueled by Kolten Wong and Harrison Bader, the Cardinals’ No. 7 and No. 8 spots have combined for a .381 OBP and .505 slugging percentage through Sunday, and were 30 percent above league average in park-adjusted runs created (wRC+) … Right fielder Dexter Fowler went into the new week with five hits in his last 15 at-bats (.333) with two doubles … In his last seven games through Sunday, catcher Yadier Molina was 10-for-29 (.345) with three doubles, a homer and six RBIs.
Three negatives
1. Miles Mikolas: After a superb 2018 season in which he went 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA, Mikolas is off to a bumpy start in his second season with the Cardinals. After signing a four-year contract extension worth $68 million during spring training, Mikolas has a 6.00 ERA in his first four starts. He has been ripped for five homers and a .576 slugging percentage in 21 innings. With a strikeout rate of 12 percent, Mikolas isn’t missing many bats. Last season, he had an exceptional K/BB ratio of 5.03. In his first four starts of ’19, his ratio was 2.20.
2. The rotation: It’s more than Mikolas. For example, Michael Wacha has a 5.28 ERA in his three starts, with a 6.87 FIP and an alarming walk rate of 18 percent. In all, the Cards’ rotation ranks 17th in MLB with a 4.46 ERA and is 27th with a 5.47 FIP. The rotation’s mediocre K/BB ratio (2.18) ranks 23rd.
2A. More squawks over walks: The Cardinals’ bullpen has the third-worst walk rate in the majors at 14.3 percent. That must come down, fellas.
3. Hitting with runners in scoring position: This team has made strides offensively, and RISP performance tends to be random. But still, the Cardinals’ batting average with runners in scoring position (.205) ranks 27th in MLB, and the slugging percentage with RISP (.323) is 26th. The hitters’ showing with runners in scoring percentage is 35 percent below the league average of 105 wRC+ in those situations.
Just wondering
1. Is Paul DeJong headed to stardom in his third MLB season?
Among MLB shortstops who had at least 60 plate appearances through Sunday, Paul DeJong ranked second in slugging percentage (.597) and OPS (.964.) DeJong is 50 percent above league average offensively in park-adjusted runs created.
2. Does Tyler O’Neill deserve more starting time in the outfield?
He mostly has come off the bench so far this season. But in his three games as a starting outfielder through Sunday, O’Neill was batting .308 with a .357 OBP and .538 slugging percentage. O’Neill hit his first homer of the season in Sunday’s win over the Reds as an injury replacement for Harrison Bader (sore hamstring). O’Neill has a 114 OPS+ in 170 big-league plate appearances, and has homered every 15.7 at-bats — albeit with plenty of strikeouts.
Update: O’Neill left Monday’s game with right arm soreness after uncorking a wild throw, and his status for Tuesday’s game is unknown.
3. Can the Cards’ front office find relief for their left-handed relief?
Early on, the team’s lefty relievers, Andrew Miller and Tyler Webb, have combined to allow a .350 OBP and .563 slugging percentage to lefty batters. Their FIP vs. lefties is an unsightly 9.61. But it’s early, and Miller was progressing until having a hiccup Sunday vs. the Reds.
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