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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
George Liquor 03:44 PM 03-17-2020
I plan on laying low for the next couple of weeks. I'll probably venture out to get food and booze, but other than that just relax at home.

Helps that I hate almost everyone in the general public.
[Reply]
Donger 03:45 PM 03-17-2020
Sounds like the Brits have moved from a mitigation strategy to suppression.
[Reply]
Kiimo 03:46 PM 03-17-2020
It's weird to see people starting to consider doing something that I've been doing since last Monday
[Reply]
Donger 03:47 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by BDj23:
Helps that I hate almost everyone in the general public.
:-)

I actually play a game every time I travel to see how long it takes someone to annoy me once I get to the airport. It's usually when I get on and off the elevator from the parking garage. But, on occasion, it takes as long as getting to the Clear or TSA Pre lanes.
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 03:48 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Nonetheless, those of you trying to figure out the mortality rate based on active cases and deaths are doing it wrong. Active cases do not mean anything. They are still active and ongoing and have no effect on mortality rate until they are either recovered or dead.
The real question is how many total infections have occurred. Is it twice the 5K in the US? Ten times? 100 times? If the number of people who have contacted this is actually 50,000 instead of 5,000 then the 1.5% mortality rate is really .15%.

Heck, Ohio estimated they had 100,000 cases just in that state based on some model created by someone smarter than me.

Not saying we shouldn’t be doing all we can to stop it or the impact this has on our health care system by happening all at once, but it also won’t surprise me if this ends up killing a smaller percentage of people than the flu. Not diminishing it, just saying the data conclusions are probably not as bad as they look right now.
[Reply]
petegz28 03:48 PM 03-17-2020
Governor of Kansas just ordered all schools to be closed the rest of the year
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 03:49 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:


This this same treatment has been used elsewhere. Hamas the pharmacist, thoughts? My pharmacist buddy was intrigued by it.
It's chloroquine along with lopinavir+ritonavir (Kaletra)

My thoughts about trial design and potential issues are explained here:

Spoiler!


I'll also add that many initially promising therapies usually don't bear fruit. There's a reason why the success rate of small molecule drugs is around 1:5000.

With that said, if there aren't drug-drug or drug-disease interactions, then if it appears safe and there are no other options, you have to try something.
[Reply]
FAX 03:49 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Nonetheless, those of you trying to figure out the mortality rate based on active cases and deaths are doing it wrong. Active cases do not mean anything. They are still active and ongoing and have no effect on mortality rate until they are either recovered or dead.
One of the most significant "unknowns", Mr. BWillie is this; How many people have contracted the virus? We know that you can be a carrier and show no symptoms. We know that because many people who have tested positive have no symptoms ... and never presented symptoms.

Those who are asymptomatic aren't even being counted by the CDC unless or until they are tested. They don't know who they are so they couldn't count them if they wanted to.

So, if the mortality "rate" doesn't include the entire population, at a minimum it should include all those with the virus ... not simply those who have tested positive, right?

Not to mention the problem of weighting the mortality rate numbers against only those who have contracted the virus and are "at higher risk" due to complicating health issues.

FAX
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 03:50 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Nonetheless, those of you trying to figure out the mortality rate based on active cases and deaths are doing it wrong. Active cases do not mean anything. They are still active and ongoing and have no effect on mortality rate until they are either recovered or dead.
But we do have a ratio of 'completed' cases and I wonder if you're not conflating those a little with the mortality rate.

Right now 8% of 'closed' cases ended in death, 92% ended in recovery. And those are closed cases. But remember that the spike is still working its way through the system and the trends have been improving for weeks. It's started to bow back up a little bit as more countries are hit and figuring out their own way through it, but those too shall stabilize.

So yes, there are projections in the numbers, but when you can see that even in 'confirmed' cases where we were still putting up with lag in the denominator, the ratio of closed cases that ended in death vs. recovery had whittled its way all the way down to about 95% to 5% before the global spread geared up about 10 days ago.

When the math sorts itself out I'd be surprised if the CFR stayed greater than 1%.
[Reply]
BWillie 03:50 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by stumppy:
Online gambling is going to get a surge in business.

[Reply]
stumppy 03:50 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by BDj23:
I plan on laying low for the next couple of weeks. I'll probably venture out to get food and booze, but other than that just relax at home.

Helps that I hate almost everyone in the general public.
Same here. I could go all year without having to interact with John Q Fuckstick and be perfectly fine with it.
[Reply]
stumppy 03:51 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
They been spamming the hell outta me this last week.
[Reply]
Mecca 03:51 PM 03-17-2020
Kevin Durant us one of the players that tested positive.
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 03:51 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
France President Macron suspends rent, taxes and utilities

https://www.graphic.com.gh/internati...utilities.html
Suspending all commerce except for food/health care isn’t a bad idea if you’re determined to mostly suspend all commerce piecemeal. If Trump came out and shut down everything for a month we’d all have a date circled on our calendar and wouldn’t much care about anything since we wouldn’t have any bills until next month.

Reminds me of the Wall Street Do-Over in Red Storm Rising.
[Reply]
BWillie 03:53 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by stumppy:
They been spamming the hell outta me this last week.
Come join the fun. I'll give you free moneys on any deposit.
[Reply]
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