I get a Cutlerian vibe from this guy. Seems to be built like a franchise QB. Powerful arm, some beautiful passes, perfect bodytype. But he is lacking an "it" factor, is he not? He's not a world-beating, overcome-the-odds, particularly spiriting QB. Looks like he could have an okay career in the NFL in which he wins nothing of consequence.
Well if there was one Andy Reid QB in this entire draft, it's Trubisky, isn't it? Super accurate, doesn't take too many risks with the ball, is very mentally tough and very athletic. He's a slam dunk for the Chiefs to trade up for, if he lasts to the 20s, but in a QB-starved NFL with at least 6 new head coaches looking for their QB, there's no chance he lasts to us. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pestilence:
The biggest thing that Mahomes will have to get used to is knowing that his defense isn't complete shit. It's ****ing awesome to know that if we are down by 14 points....we have a legitimate ****ing shot of our QB bringing us back from it.
This is the thing that drives me the most nuts. When you're down by two scores and our offense or qb is still throwing those short passes. Take some fucking shots down the field for fucks sake. Let your receivers or your big fucking athletic tight end make a play. I couldn't care less if the pass is intercepted, we're likely losing anyways but maybe just maybe we make a big play and get back into the game. The same thing during the two minute offense. We throw so many short passes to the flat or in the middle of the field that take so much time off the clock [Reply]
What really gripes me is throwing short on 3rd and long (or running a draw play). Once in a blue moon, it works but generally it leads to a punt. In today's NFL, you have fairly decent chance of an illegal contact or PI call if it's not complete, so why not throw it past the sticks? And then to add insult to injury, after the five yard pass on 3rd and 15, the punt team will come out and take an intentional delay of game penalty to give Colquitt more room. :-)
I'm thinking Mahomes won't settle for dump offs very often on 3rd and longs. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Darnold is the cream of that class and something that this class didn't have - a high-ceiling starter with a long track record from an NFL style offense. He's the only thing that sets that class apart from this one.
Rosen's reports read EXACTLY like Kizer's from the same time a year prior. All sorts of ability but can't get it all to come together. Attitude and work ethic questions, etc...
Mahomes and Allen are the same damn guy but with Allen you add some level of competition questions. When the draft rolls around, you're going to hear the same things about Allens arm talent but rough edges that you hear about Mahomes. Baker Mayfield has a lot of similar traits to Trubisky though admittedly more experience. Mason Rudolph is going to end up getting picked apart a lot like Davis Webb.
The 2018 class is extremely similar to this class but with a true #1 overall prospect at the top of it with Darnold. There's no Deshaun Watson type; great college resume with questionable translation kind of player but a lot of teams really like Watson.
The weakness of this class has been wildly overstated as has the strength of next year's class.
Agree, except I doubt Darnold comes out. He's going to be a Redshirt Sophomore. Sure, he can declare but I can't recall one coming out before their Junior season. I'm sure there might be one or two, but I doubt they were any good. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Agree, except I doubt Darnold comes out. He's going to be a Redshirt Sophomore. Sure, he can declare but I can't recall one coming out before their Junior season. I'm sure there might be one or two, but I doubt they were any good.
If we were judging this based just on collegiate efficiency, then Patrick Mahomes would hold the top spot. He had the best AY/A in the class, and his passer efficiency rating was second by a hair. With the discrepancy between Kaaya and Mahomes in games played, though, Mahomes slides down to a respectable second.
Mahomes took big strides between his 2015 sophomore season and last year in limiting interceptions, something that helped vault him to the top of this list. He threw 15 picks as a sophomore, leading the Big 12, but he cut that to 10 this year despite adding 18 more total attempts. When you couple that with a gaudy 41 touchdowns, it's easy to see how his AY/A got so meaty.
This isn't to say he cowers over previous first-round picks, though. Going back to our group of 60 candidates, Mahomes ranks 26th in AY/A and 29th in passer efficiency rating. This is all while starting for just two-plus seasons, limiting him to 30 games played. Even the elite in this class bring some serious questions.
Whenever Mahomes' name is brought up this draft season, you can bet someone will make mention of his playing in the Big 12. This isn't a conference known for stellar defense, potentially tainting his efficiency stats. Looking back at how past Big 12 first-round picks have fared likely won't help his case.
Since 1995, there have been seven quarterbacks from the Big 12 drafted in the first round. Here's a look at how they've fared in the NFL through the eyes of NEP, again focusing on top-15 seasons in years in which they had at least 200 drop backs.
Quarterback School Top-15 NEP Seasons Qualified Seasons
Robert Griffin III Baylor 1 3
Sam Bradford Oklahoma 1 6
Vince Young Texas 1 3
Brandon Weeden Oklahoma State 0 2
Josh Freeman Kansas State 1 4
Ryan Tannehill Texas A&M 1 5
Blaine Gabbert Missouri 0 3
In 26 qualified seasons, former Big 12 quarterbacks have finished in the top 15 in Total NEP just five times. Sam Bradford didn't get his first top-15 finish until this year. You can bet Mahomes is going to hear about this, whether it's fair or not.
Perhaps it's fitting, then, that Mahomes' top comp is the late Steve McNair, who played his college ball at Alcorn State, which was -- at the time -- Division I-AA. His stats there weren't anything otherworldly, either, and he and Mahomes line up well across the board.
Quarterback Games Pass. Eff. Rat. AY/A
Steve McNair: 33 155.4 9.0
Patrick Mahomes: 30 157.0 9.2
McNair was a tremendous NFL player despite putting up just decent stats against lower-level competition in college; it's probably not right to write off Mahomes simply because he played in an offensive-minded conference.
Mahomes is similar to Kaaya in that he's not likely to cost a team a first-round pick. That makes any warts and worries he may present less frightening. He showed some reasons for excitement when he was at Texas Tech, and it would seem fully justifiable to target him at some point beyond the first round.
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I think Andy Reid drafted Mahomes with the belief that there's a chance, albeit small, that Mahomes starts THIS YEAR. Not on day 1, but by week 17.
I've been wanting to state this as well.
When you listen to the way Reid talks about Mahomes, it sounds like he thinks he could start THIS year. He certainly doesn't rule it out. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
I've been wanting to state this as well.
When you listen to the way Reid talks about Mahomes, it sounds like he thinks he could start THIS year. He certainly doesn't rule it out.
Nobody can sit there and tell me that Mahomes can't do some of the things that Smith is doing right now. Yeah you'd probably get a few more INTs....but guarantee that you'd get more TDs out of it. And I don't think we're going to be cruising to a 12-4 record this year like we did last year. We're going to be fighting for a playoff spot this season. And I think that if Smith isn't cutting it later in the year.....Reid would have no problem sitting his ass for Mahomes (if Mahomes is at least somewhat ready). [Reply]
Albert Breer spends the first 5 minutes talking about this years QB class. He then interviews Daniel Jeremiah starting at the 30 minute mark and they start talking about the QB's at the 35:20 mark...
Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe:
Albert Breer spends the first 5 minutes talking about this years QB class. He then interviews Daniel Jeremiah starting at the 30 minute mark and they start talking about the QB's at the 35:20 mark...
He's knocking the Chiefs for trading up and not waiting for next year?
