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Nzoner's Game Room>*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***
Chiefspants 10:55 AM 04-05-2017
Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
KChiefs1 05:03 PM 08-01-2017
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
August schedules:

Royals:


Cleveland:


http://kansascity.locals.baseballpro...ing-schedules/

The good news for the Royals is that they appear to have a softer schedule than Cleveland. Royals opponents have a weighted actual winning percentage of .489. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s opponents are at .497. Appearances may be deceiving, though: Royals opponents have a third-order winning percentage of .502. while Cleveland’s are at .495. The Indians still have six games against Boston and seven against the Yankees (the Royals have one makeup game in the Bronx in late September). But the bad news for the Royals is that, while they have 10 games left against Cleveland, seven of them will be on the road. The division title is certainly in play, even though (perhaps not surprisingly), the third-order winning percentage seems to think Cleveland is a lot better than the Royals. I hate to say it, but that does match the consensus prior to the season. This Royals team has made a habit of making computer predictions and formulas look silly; perhaps they can do it again.

If the Royals can’t capture the division, they should still have a good shot at a Wild Card spot. Their closest pursuers, Tampa Bay and Seattle, are both 2.5 games back. They also face much tougher schedules. Here, the Royals may get a break by playing in the AL Central, with poor White Sox and Tigers teams and a fading Twins squad. The Rays face opponents with a weighted actual win percentage of .514 (and weighted third-order win percentage of .513) the rest of the way; the Mariners are at .505 and .507, respectively. Both teams have to come to Kansas City for a series; obviously, those are some big games.

Seattle’s problem is not as obvious as you might think. They face the Houston Astros juggernaut just six times the rest of the season. But they also face the Royals four times, Cleveland three times, New York three times, and Tampa Bay three times.

Meanwhile, the Rays have the double whammy of eight games against Boston and six against New York. They also have three games against Milwaukee, three against Houston, four against Cleveland, two against the Cubs, and those three games against Seattle.
[Reply]
Why Not? 09:42 PM 08-01-2017
Haven't ceded much ground this week but the charge from behind is significant. TB and Sea only 1.5 back of us. Need to take 3 of 4 from Seattle this weekend.
[Reply]
Prison Bitch 06:30 AM 08-02-2017
I blame Duncan for the Ian Kennedy fiasco
[Reply]
milkman 07:00 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by Pestilence:
They aren't going to trade for Darvish and they'll disappoint me in the playoffs yet again. :-)
I didn't see anyone mention the fact that the Dodgers did acquire Darvish.
[Reply]
Fansy the Famous Bard 07:01 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by milkman:
I didn't see anyone mention the fact that the Dodgers did acquire Darvish.
That's because Fuck the Dodgers.
[Reply]
duncan_idaho 07:52 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
I blame Duncan for the Ian Kennedy fiasco

Fiasco?

Are you going to start referring to him as "gopherball ian" again?

He didn't have a good game last night but has been a solid mid-rotation starter since the beginning of June, and outside of May - which featured a terrible start right before he went on the DL as well as there's bad starts when he came back too soon because the team needed him- his numbers are right in line with his very solid 2016 campaign.

He isn't an ace, but he isn't paid like one, either.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[Reply]
Prison Bitch 09:38 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Fiasco?

Are you going to start referring to him as "gopherball ian" again?

He didn't have a good game last night but has been a solid mid-rotation starter since the beginning of June, and outside of May - which featured a terrible start right before he went on the DL as well as there's bad starts when he came back too soon because the team needed him- his numbers are right in line with his very solid 2016 campaign.

He isn't an ace, but he isn't paid like one, either.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Dude, bro (puts arm around you): you were wrong about a Kennedy. Admit it. He sucks. He's a $15M/yr 5.00 FIP douche. And with $50M still owed, the worst is yet to come.
[Reply]
Chiefspants 09:47 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Dude, bro (puts arm around you): you were wrong about a Kennedy. Admit it. He sucks. He's a $15M/yr 5.00 FIP douche. And with $50M still owed, the worst is yet to come.
I'll join the bro-circle to say that my "James Shields has become Jeremy Guthrie" argument probably wasn't as dumb as you thought last year.
[Reply]
ChiTown 09:53 AM 08-02-2017
What is everyone's best guess on what the following Royals will be worth in Free Agency (looking for years and total dollars):

Cain
Esky
Vargas
Moose
Hosmer
[Reply]
The Franchise 09:54 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by milkman:
I didn't see anyone mention the fact that the Dodgers did acquire Darvish.
It surprised the fuck out of me.
[Reply]
penbrook 09:59 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by ChiTown:
What is everyone's best guess on what the following Royals will be worth in Free Agency (looking for years and total dollars):

Cain
Esky
Vargas
Moose
Hosmer
Cain 3/45
Esky 4/40
Vargas 2/30
Moose and Hosmer 5/150
[Reply]
BlackHelicopters 10:06 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by ChiTown:
What is everyone's best guess on what the following Royals will be worth in Free Agency (looking for years and total dollars):

Cain
Esky
Vargas
Moose
Hosmer
Someone will Give Hos $150M+
[Reply]
ChiefsCountry 10:34 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by ChiTown:
What is everyone's best guess on what the following Royals will be worth in Free Agency (looking for years and total dollars):

Cain
Esky
Vargas
Moose
Hosmer
Hosmer - 1b contracts if you look at the Chris Davis and Freedie Freeman deals. Probably 21 to 22 per year. 5 year deal, player option for 6. 110 for 5, 132 for 6.

Moose - 3b contracts. 14.5 to 17.5 is what the big long term deals have been per year.

Cain - you would have to use the Dexter Flower as the comp for that I'm sure. 14 to 16 per year.

Esky and Vargas - who knows.
[Reply]
ChiTown 10:45 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by penbrook:
Cain 3/45
Esky 4/40
Vargas 2/30
Moose and Hosmer 5/150
Moose and Hos $30MM/YR?? NFW

Moose is probably looking at 5/$65-75MM

Hos, I think is 8/$160-180MM

I think Cain is 4/$64MM

Esky is a total unknown for me

Vargas is probably looking at a Rich Hill type contract - Maybe 3/$33-36MM??
[Reply]
penbrook 10:55 AM 08-02-2017
Originally Posted by ChiTown:
Moose and Hos $30MM/YR?? NFW

Moose is probably looking at 5/$65-75MM

Hos, I think is 8/$160-180MM

I think Cain is 4/$64MM

Esky is a total unknown for me

Vargas is probably looking at a Rich Hill type contract - Maybe 3/$33-36MM??
Hos can definently get 30 mil a year. Look at the Yankees. He has it all. Second in the AL in hits. Has speed. Great defense. He's young. Ideally if Moose and Hosmer re sign here you can start working on their statues.
[Reply]
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