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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Chief Pagan 11:57 AM 02-20-2021
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

By Marty Makary
Feb. 18, 2021
...
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
...
Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine.
Yes. And once upon a time, people were claiming this was now worse than the flu. And last April people were claiming it would be gone by June. And the sort of people that once were claiming that it would be gone by summer probably didn't predict the huge surge of deaths we just this winter.

This is a new virus and scientific predictions are just that, predictions. But some predictions are based a little more on science and some are mostly on wishful thinking and/or trolling or populist denialism.

The huge drops in cases and hospitalizations the last few weeks has been great news. I doubt there were very many experts out there who both predicted the winter surge followed by such a steep decline.

If the virus didn't mutate, and especially if say 90% of the population got the vaccine, I could see the country getting to the point where the virus no longer circulated.

But given the mutated viruses that are circulating in South America and Africa and given that is likely that at least 20% or 30%, perhaps?, of the population will decline the vaccine, I find it extremely unlikely that the country is going to at an extremely low level of infection.

There does seem to be a summer effect. So the next wave may not be until next fall or winter. And there are lots of unknown.

The current vaccines still provide good, but not great, protection against getting the mutated forms. And my understanding is that the vaccines also drastically reduce the chance of getting a severe case of the disease even from a mutated virus. So I think the impact of the virus will be much reduced a year from now.

However, I would say its more likely that there are still plenty of people (mostly those who have not gotten vaccinated) that are getting really sick from mutated forms of the virus next winter than it is that the virus is at an extremely low level of infection.

I guess we will see. I will point out that there remain a lot of unknowns and I hope Marty Makary is correct in his prediction. But I'm afraid it will turn out to be more like the 'no worse than the flu' and the 'gone by summer' predictions.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 12:49 PM 02-20-2021
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
Yes. And once upon a time, people were claiming this was now worse than the flu. And last April people were claiming it would be gone by June. And the sort of people that once were claiming that it would be gone by summer probably didn't predict the huge surge of deaths we just this winter.

This is a new virus and scientific predictions are just that, predictions. But some predictions are based a little more on science and some are mostly on wishful thinking and/or trolling or populist denialism.

The huge drops in cases and hospitalizations the last few weeks has been great news. I doubt there were very many experts out there who both predicted the winter surge followed by such a steep decline.

If the virus didn't mutate, and especially if say 90% of the population got the vaccine, I could see the country getting to the point where the virus no longer circulated.

But given the mutated viruses that are circulating in South America and Africa and given that is likely that at least 20% or 30%, perhaps?, of the population will decline the vaccine, I find it extremely unlikely that the country is going to at an extremely low level of infection.

There does seem to be a summer effect. So the next wave may not be until next fall or winter. And there are lots of unknown.

The current vaccines still provide good, but not great, protection against getting the mutated forms. And my understanding is that the vaccines also drastically reduce the chance of getting a severe case of the disease even from a mutated virus. So I think the impact of the virus will be much reduced a year from now.

However, I would say its more likely that there are still plenty of people (mostly those who have not gotten vaccinated) that are getting really sick from mutated forms of the virus next winter than it is that the virus is at an extremely low level of infection.

I guess we will see. I will point out that there remain a lot of unknowns and I hope Marty Makary is correct in his prediction. But I'm afraid it will turn out to be more like the 'no worse than the flu' and the 'gone by summer' predictions.

Most of the problems we have is based on "it's a new virus".

Sure, it is novel enough that humans overall haven't built up enough immunity to protect against it, especially in the old and frail.

We also have known for a long time that coronaviruses are sharply seasonal. What is happening now looks like more like a "semi-novel" virus has been introduced and will soon be endemic.

Within a season or two this will just be another cold virus for most.

We also can see that there is a huge variation in how deadly this thing is. In many countries they could have done nothing and no one would have noticed it if the media wasn't talking about it. In others with an unhealthy and older population stacked in nursing homes this thing is very bad.

We have also known for almost a year that for people under 70 without preexisting conditions this virus was very weak.

The risk goes up a 1000 times based on age. Time for the Covid Doomers to find another end of the world scenario. The rest of us are getting ready to move on.
[Reply]
Chief Roundup 05:24 PM 02-20-2021
Since they are saying that they don't think the "immunity" to the virus will last very long or that the vaccine will only protect us for 6 months or so, if people do not continue to get the vaccine then the outbreaks could form again and cases would then rise to levels we do not want.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 05:36 PM 02-20-2021
Mods..can we start banning people as well for posting made up bullshit like the above post?
[Reply]
2112 05:40 PM 02-20-2021
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
Wut?
Lol I thought that they were going to be doing testing on people 6 months after they have been vaccinated to get an idea on booster shots/residual immunity et al. I don’t think any of this testing has been done yet.
[Reply]
KCUnited 05:42 PM 02-20-2021
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
Since they are saying that they don't think the "immunity" to the virus will last very long or that the vaccine will only protect us for 6 months or so, if people do not continue to get the vaccine then the outbreaks could form again and cases would then rise to levels we do not want.
Reads like death metal lyrics

Hell yeah man \m/
[Reply]
O.city 06:02 PM 02-20-2021
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
Since they are saying that they don't think the "immunity" to the virus will last very long or that the vaccine will only protect us for 6 months or so, if people do not continue to get the vaccine then the outbreaks could form again and cases would then rise to levels we do not want.
Just don’t know yet. The vaccines produce a very strong immune response that’s pretty sturdy. I’d guess we find out immunity is pretty long lasting but we just don’t know yet.

If there’s enough drift where our antibodies don’t recognize yes, we’ll need new vaccines
[Reply]
Queefythong 02:35 AM 02-21-2021
Multiple studies have shown that the vaccines still work on the new strains. I dont nessecarily agree with Kansas City opening up so quickly right now. I would give it another 4 weeks or so right before St.Patricks day to allow more people vaccinated and then businesses will see the St.Patricks day boom in business. Missouri has about 6 million people about a million have been vaccinated and we know there has been atleast 500k positive meaning there is some sort of immunity. If I had to guess that number is probably closer to 1 million so we as a state might be at 1/3 of the way towards some sort of immunity. Which you are seeing in states like Wisconsin and North Dakota.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 06:57 AM 02-21-2021
Originally Posted by Queefythong:
Multiple studies have shown that the vaccines still work on the new strains. I dont nessecarily agree with Kansas City opening up so quickly right now. I would give it another 4 weeks or so right before St.Patricks day to allow more people vaccinated and then businesses will see the St.Patricks day boom in business. Missouri has about 6 million people about a million have been vaccinated and we know there has been atleast 500k positive meaning there is some sort of immunity. If I had to guess that number is probably closer to 1 million so we as a state might be at 1/3 of the way towards some sort of immunity. Which you are seeing in states like Wisconsin and North Dakota.
You think we caught half the positives? Maybe 20% at best.
[Reply]
O.city 08:02 AM 02-21-2021
https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/s...544230912?s=21
[Reply]
IA_Chiefs_fan 08:14 AM 02-21-2021
Originally Posted by O.city:
https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/s...544230912?s=21
I was sure hoping and expecting this to be the case. Thank goodness and thanks for sharing.
[Reply]
O.city 08:36 AM 02-21-2021
Originally Posted by IA_Chiefs_fan:
I was sure hoping and expecting this to be the case. Thank goodness and thanks for sharing.
Yep. Great news
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 02:09 PM 02-21-2021

Well everyone. It’s time.

It’s officially been two weeks since the single worst thing that’s ever happened to experts & media…maskless Super Bowl Celebrations

They’ve been wrong SO many times…surely THIS is the time a huge maskless gathering becomes a “superspreader”

Oof pic.twitter.com/NX184cnFQo

— IM (@ianmSC) February 21, 2021

[Reply]
Chief Roundup 06:57 PM 02-21-2021
Fauci expects Americans could still need to wear face masks in 2022.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/w...uyBHmW37vzHL8E

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser for Covid-19, said on Sunday that Americans may still be wearing masks outside their homes a year from now, even as he predicted the country would return to “a significant degree of normality” by fall.

“I want it to keep going down to a baseline that’s so low there is virtually no threat,” Dr. Fauci said on the CNN program “State of the Union,” referring to the number of cases nationally that would make him comfortable enough to stop recommending universal masking. “If you combine getting most of the people in the country vaccinated with getting the level of virus in the community very, very low, then I believe you’re going to be able to say, for the most part, we don’t necessarily have to wear masks.”

Dr. Fauci appeared on a series of TV news programs on Sunday morning, where he was quizzed on the dangers of variants of the coronavirus, the schedule of the nation’s vaccine rollout and when vaccination would allow more students to return to schools.

On this last question, Dr. Fauci said on “Fox News Sunday” that he hoped high school students, far fewer of whom have gone back to classrooms compared with younger children, would be eligible for vaccination in the fall.

“That’s why we are pushing on those studies, to get them vaccinated,” he said of teenagers, who are currently the subject of clinical trials by Pfizer and Moderna. “That will likely occur in the fall; I can’t say it’s going to be on day one of when school starts in the fall term.”

Dig deeper into the moment.

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Vaccinations for younger children, however, “likely will not be before the beginning of the first quarter of 2022,” Dr. Fauci said.

On the hotly debated question of whether people should wait longer than the recommended three or four weeks to get a booster vaccine, or even skip the second dose, Dr. Fauci said on NBC News’s “Meet the Press” that it was prudent for people to stick to the prescribed schedule.

“There are enough unknowns in that, particularly the durability of the protection,” he said.

He added that while that new data suggesting people who have had Covid could get enough protection from one dose was “really quite impressive,” it might be complicated to document who has had the virus.

He also addressed the subject of the mutated variant of the coronavirus identified in South Africa. In clinical trials involving the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine in that country, patients who were inoculated were not protected from mild or moderate illness caused by the variant, known as B. 1.351. Dr. Fauci said on “Fox News Sunday” that while it is still rare in the United States, “if it becomes more dominant, we may need a version of the vaccine that’s effective specifically against” it.
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Continue reading the main story

With the United States expected to surpass 500,000 deaths from Covid-19 in the coming days, Dr. Fauci told Chuck Todd on “Meet the Press” that “we haven’t seen anything even close to this for well over 100 years,” since the 1918 influenza pandemic, adding, “People will be talking about this decades and decades and decades from now.”
[Reply]
TLO 07:06 PM 02-21-2021
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
Fauci expects Americans could still need to wear face masks in 2022.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/w...uyBHmW37vzHL8E
Behind a paywall.

I suppose things could really flare back up next fall/winter. But I personally think mask mandates will be a thing of the past very, very soon.
[Reply]
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