Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
Give them a couple of months. Odds are they are going to find out that herd immunity doesn't protect them from the mutated versions.
Hopefully enough people get the vaccines and the vaccines are effective enough against the variations, but both of those would appear to be in some doubt.
Hopefully people keep getting them. They should be spreading the 'hey your ass won't die from covid if you get a vaccine". I would think that should be enough to do it [Reply]
I imagine this will keep creeping higher. Cases down to 100k a day. 44 million doses administered. You can see progress but I wish there was a damn fast forward button [Reply]
#ZeroCOVID or #HarmReduction?
— Vinay Prasad weighs the two competing targets
by Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH February 9, 2021
#ZeroCOVID
Recently, two articles fleshed out the idea of zero COVID. Indeed, #ZeroCOVID is seductive. After all, who doesn't wish for a world without SARS-CoV-2? Moreover, some countries appear to have achieved or been within striking distance of the dream. Australia and New Zealand are averaging four to six and two new cases a day, respectively. Citizens in those nations can go to parties, concerts, and restaurants. I'm envious!
#HarmReduction
Harm reduction is an alternative view with a longstanding tradition in public health. The core idea is that sometimes abstinence or perfect adherence to policies is not possible, achievable, or desirable among human beings. Human beings are beautifully complicated, and often they have competing desires that influence the short- and long-term goals. Policies can and should encourage actions to lower the harm or damage of the virus, and the realistic pursuit of good can be superior to imperfect pursuit of perfection.
Lockdowns are a unique intervention. If you wish to combat drunk driving, you can mostly succeed even if there are a few violators. But if you wish to combat pandemic spread, your policy is only as successful as the least compliant people. A motivated fraction of the population can thwart the overall effect, by defying the measure and by actively seeking risky activity.
If I reflect on the United States politically at this moment, I cannot imagine a successful lockdown.
Meanwhile, vaccination changes the calculus. Across all vaccine trials to date, and 65,000 vaccinated participants, there are zero hospitalizations and zero deaths. Vaccination removes the fangs from the snake. If we can successfully vaccinate adults, particularly older adults, then eradicating SARS-CoV-2 takes on less importance.
Finally, policy is a series of trade-offs, and a sustained policy of #ZeroCOVID may entail severe downsides. At a minimum, societies might face restrictions on travel and movement. Unanticipated and strict lockdowns may lead to riots and strife.
Prolonged school closure may lead to a generation of kids with educational deficits, and loss of upward mobility. You can tell vaccinated people not to meet for dinner or lunch or to hug their parents whom they have not seen in a year, but I seriously doubt that they will adhere to that recommendation (and I still think the absolute risk is incredibly low, and consistent with many other risks we take in society every day).
In short, I am envious of all countries that are within striking distance of #ZeroCOVID, but given where the United States is in this moment, I struggle to think this is a realistic, feasible or practical goal for us. If you read my past columns, it should come as no surprise that I am of the school of public health that favors harm reduction. But I am curious about what you think?
I imagine this will keep creeping higher. Cases down to 100k a day. 44 million doses administered. You can see progress but I wish there was a damn fast forward button
One month ago we were at 795k cases a day. 4 days in a row we’ve been at 100k or less. We are in fast forward now. The reasons why are debatable, but I imagine it’s a combo of vaccinations and natural virus behavior. The latter being the driving force of cases dropping like a rock. Following the same trend line as the Spanish flu, and burning out. With the addition of the vaccines (something we didn’t have in the aforementioned pandemic), we can and likely will burn out even faster. If nothing else with spring time, increased vaccinations, and the way this thing tore through the country, the US should be in incredible shape come May. I can’t wait to attend some live baseball games. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
Give them a couple of months. Odds are they are going to find out that herd immunity doesn't protect them from the mutated versions.
Hopefully enough people get the vaccines and the vaccines are effective enough against the variations, but both of those would appear to be in some doubt.
From everything I've read - previous infection might not completely prevent infection and transmission of the new variants, but it almost certainly protects against getting super sick.
So a combination of vaccines and herd immunity will probably render covid less deadly than the flu is now, even against the new variants - at least for a while. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
I'm not sure. It has dropped like a rock in my area. From 90 to 15 hospitalized in a few months during a month you would expect numbers to be high. It sure isn't anything we are doing differently from the past 6 months so has to be something else.
Even the case numbers each day have plummeted. It all happened very quickly. [Reply]
Barring some major change in trend we are 20-30 days from this thing being back at pretty low levels for new cases and this is really mainly before the vaccine has had a chance to take effect.
Originally Posted by O.city:
Only thing I worry about is the new strain thats more transmissible taking off.
It’s not happening in the UK, they are dropping faster than us. Hell it’s not happening in SA. Don’t worry my man, we are finally awaking from this nightmare. Fear sales. We’re on our way out of this. [Reply]
Back in November I went in and got the antibody test. Came back positive. Fast forward to late January, I got sick. Ran a fever for a very short time, but felt like I had a head cold - stuffy, runny nose, congested, deep cough and overall just felt terrible. Kept me on the couch for about 4-5 days.
I didn't even consider that I may have caught covid because of the positive antibody test, but about 5 days after getting sick I noticed that I had no sense of smell and my taste was very faint. Over 3 weeks later I'm getting a little bit of my smell back, but my taste still hasn't really started to come back. Never did go for a test to know for sure what I had. [Reply]
