Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Sure, but debating what the real number is is an exercise in futility. It's pretty solid to assume this is way more deadly than H1N1, though.
Not really. It’s not debating numbers to accept that there are going to be thousands of cases unreported. If there aren’t then it’s not as contagious as suggested. Cant have both of those statements be true. How many cases would guess South Korea has? Do you think they have a proportional amount of deaths as well? Because regardless of how many they have additional the proportion is almost, as you would say, solid to assume not even close. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Sure, but debating what the real number is is an exercise in futility. It's pretty solid to assume this is way more deadly than H1N1, though.
I can't go there. Not yet. H1N1 killed people across a much broader age spectrum along with over half a million people. We haven't even hit 10,000 yet globally. [Reply]
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
Not really. It’s not debating numbers to accept that there are going to be thousands of cases unreported. If there aren’t then it’s not as contagious as suggested. How many cases would guess South Korea has? Do you think they have a proportional amount of deaths as well? Because regardless of how many they have additional the proportion is almost, as you would say, solid to assume not even close.
I think there's plenty to this argument, the problem is we are probably way more in line with Italy's approach to this than South Korea. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
I think there's plenty to this argument, the problem is we are probably way more in line with Italy's approach to this than South Korea.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
How do you figure, sports fan?
This ain't rocket science. We are hardly testing at all and are unable to tell where the virus has spread in America, save a few specific hotspots. South Korea is testing and isolating people at a very, very high rate. We are rationing tests for people who fit a specific group of criteria. [Reply]
This morning I tested positive for Covid 19. I feel ok, I have no symptoms so far but have been isolated since I found out about my possible exposure to the virus. Stay home people and be pragmatic. I will keep you updated on how I’m doing 👊🏾👊🏾 No panic. pic.twitter.com/Lg7HVMZglZ
Originally Posted by tk13:
This ain't rocket science. We are hardly testing at all and are unable to tell where the virus has spread in America, save a few specific hotspots. South Korea is testing and isolating people at a very, very high rate. We are rationing tests for people who fit a specific group of criteria.
I just ran some numbers and right now we are on pace to be about 1670 deaths below Italy if we maintain and reach the number of cases they have.
We are testing people with symptoms. Testing you now means dick if you're negative. You walk outside and talk to someone who has it and now we wasted a test on you and will eventually have to do another one. [Reply]
I'm going to do a stupid thing and weigh in here after a prolonged absence. I think FAX is probably onto something in that people are pretty firmly entrenched in wherever they stand on this so anything I have to say is probably just going to inflame passions either way. Oh well.
Like most I've been watching these curves and I've done as much as I can to try to inform myself of what's going on. I was cognizant of the 'capacity vs. severity' problem well before the "flatten the curve" movement put it into an easily digestible and graphic form. Ultimately it's been clear from the start of the real issues in Italy that this is not an issue of contraction (because the severity is extremely focused but otherwise benign as far as this sort of high intensity outbreak is concerned) but rather capacity to treat. If an 80 year old gets it and takes up a bed, that's still taking up a bed, even if it's an 80 year old rather than a 20 year old.
So that being the case, it still feels to me like the focus on contraction is misplaced when we discuss 'the curve'. Rather, ALL of this needs to be centered upon critical care instances, does it not? Because those are the ones that really need to be addressed. Those are the ones that strain the healthcare system and when it snaps create catastrophic outcomes. And from what I've seen, we're in MUCH better shape over a similar timeline than Italy was in terms of critical care cases. Remember that while we are very similar in our 'beds per 1,000' count to Italy, we're WELL ahead of them in our critical care beds; rates nearly 3 times as high. That puts us in a far stronger situation than they were. There are systemic (not to mention cultural and demographic) reasons to believe that our critical care system will take this hit far better than theirs did.
Additionally, I worry that our focus is shifting too much. What people seem to be ignoring about the 'flatten the curve' simulations is that there is a NEEDED spread in them. Remember that the long-term timeline on that curve effectively ends as the 'eligible' population for spread continues to reduce towards zero. Well in that curve that eligible population isn't being reduced by isolation (or death), it's being reduced through recovery. They get moved out of the 'carrier' group at that point through acquired immunity. Once that eligible population gets small enough, spread reduces for lack of carriers. All those cute little curves people are posting are based on simulations built around that very premise.
So to the 'shut it down' crowd - to what end? Let's say we actually DO just stop the spread - what happens in 6 months? This virus exists worldwide and will always exist unless a vaccine wipes it out. That seems unlikely according to most sources I've read. So the moment you try to open the taps back up, you've re-introduced the same 'eligible carrier' population with little/no acquired immunity developed. In the meantime you've shut down the economy for 6 months to do...what? Start back where we were on 3/1/2020? How's that get us out of this? That's untold harm done to the population for precisely zero long-term gain.
I'm a military history/tactics guy so this kinda brings me around to my POV here. This is an ambush - full stop. Direction #1 for not dying in an ambush? Avoid it. Okay - but this idea that we could've just avoided it is silly - that was never going to happen. The rest of the world has different leadership than we do ALL of them are getting hit as well. So let's take option 1 off the table because it simply isn't realistic given modern life. So we were marching a column and the ambush is here - what are you supposed to do in an ambush once you're in it?
No, you don't keep your rifle on your shoulder and keep marching. I think that's the folly of the 'keep up your everyday life crowd'. This is here and things are different than they were a month ago. So we need to act like it. But guess what? The answer isn't to dig trenches and go prone either. And that's what the "shut it down!" crowd is espousing. We cannot simply duck our heads and hope they run out of ammo before they kill us all. Keep marching and you get shot in the chest. Lay on your belly and you'll get shot in the back. You're still gonna get wiped out - the latter may just take a little longer.
The tactic for addressing an imminent ambush is that you have to shoot your way out. You find the source of fire, shoulder your rifles, KEEP MOVING and you fucking attack it. You change what you were doing but above all else you stay on the attack. And yes, when a unit is trying to fight its way out of an ambush, people die. But a damn sight fewer of them than if you just keep marching or simply dig a trench.
As a nation we can't simply shut down. That's digging in and hoping for some miracle air support that simply may not come at all and if so it could easily be far too late. And we can't ignore it - that's just marching with your rifles on your shoulders. We have to accept that part of the assault on COVID -- even with the 'flatten the curve' simulations -- is acquired immunity. It's fighting back on the ground. And yes, that's going to yield casualties but it will also give you a chance to actually win the damn thing and shoot your way through it.
Are there people with this disease who are showing no symptoms? Yup - almost certainly. And that's GOOD. Because it means that they're slowly building up that acquired immunity that will pass them out of the 'eligible carrier' population into the acquired immune population. And are they carrying as high/higher a viral load than those that are showing symptoms? Very probably - but it's also super SUPER easy for them to not do the things that transmit the virus. If you aren't coughing/sneezing aerosolized virus on people/surfaces, you're far less likely to actually transmit it. You're the guy who can do a shitload to combat this thing by living normally but washing your hands more and avoiding your face. Don't share vapes or lick your fingers. Don't do things that puts your saliva/virus on surfaces because those are going to be voluntary acts for you that you can otherwise avoid (coughing/sneezing among the symptomatic is obviously far less voluntary).
We've gotta recognize that the end-game isn't a complete elimination of any sort of spread. It never was. The end-game is a 'rolled out' version of it. And to know if the steps we're taking are effective, we have to give them time to breath and focus on critical care cases rather than simply instances of contraction because in these scenarios, asymptomatic (or mild) contraction is in many ways an ally. By doing too little, we defeat the ability to slow roll it. But by doing too much we do just as much damage by not allowing it to spread at all and thus accomplishing NOTHING. At some point this has to become endemic, IMO.
I think the 'do nothing' crowd has largely evaporated but I worry the 'lock it down' crowd is going to do just as much damage if we don't recognize that at some point the drive to be 'more concerned' than the last guy who suggested something is just going to prolong the inevitable and in all likelihood permanently scar the nation that emerges. As a nation we have to keep moving forward to get through this. Keeping everyone locked in their houses for a month or longer won't do it.
I suspect this will do nothing but convince everyone that I'm an idiot, but such is life. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Why are curfews being discussed by states and cities to be implemented? Has there been some unrest that I’m not aware of?
Yeah, I don't get the curfew shit at all. Just another over the top reation. [Reply]
