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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
FAX 11:50 AM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by SupDock:
I posted the data above. It isn't 10 percent.


I see that we have had around 18k confirmed influenza hospitalizations this year, and 260000 positive tests

That's less than 10 percent hospitalization.

I would love to see where on the CDC website you got your data, because I got mine from the recent influenza surveillance report

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
That's a good page.

Let's not talk past each other here, my friend. Okay?

Here are the confirmed case numbers on your page ...

Data Cumulative since
September 29, 2019
(week 40)
222,552 (20.7%)

Agreed?

Now then ... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

22,000 – 55,000
flu deaths

Take the low number and divide it by 222,000 (rounding downish).

Again ... it's probably wise to remember that the CDC's projections on either side of the equation cannot be entirely/perfectly accurate. It's not possible.

FAX
[Reply]
SupDock 11:53 AM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by FAX:
That's a good page.

Let's not talk past each other here, my friend. Okay?

Here are the confirmed case numbers on your page ...

Data Cumulative since
September 29, 2019
(week 40)
222,552 (20.7%)

Agreed?

Now then ... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

22,000 – 55,000
flu deaths

Take the low number and divide it by 222,000 (rounding downish).

Again ... it's probably wise to remember that the CDC's projections on either side of the equation cannot be entirely/perfectly accurate. It's not possible.

FAX

You cannot use confirmed positive cases when you are using estimated deaths.

Statistically this makes no sense

If you use estimated deaths, you need to use estimated cases, which is 36 million on the low end
[Reply]
Bwana 11:55 AM 03-16-2020
Looks like Canada is locking it up. Justin Trudeau says he will close Canada's border to non-citizens amid pandemic.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coro...-citizens.html
[Reply]
Donger 11:57 AM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by FAX:
That's a good page.

Let's not talk past each other here, my friend. Okay?

Here are the confirmed case numbers on your page ...

Data Cumulative since
September 29, 2019
(week 40)
222,552 (20.7%)

Agreed?

Now then ... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

22,000 – 55,000
flu deaths

Take the low number and divide it by 222,000 (rounding downish).

Again ... it's probably wise to remember that the CDC's projections on either side of the equation cannot be entirely/perfectly accurate. It's not possible.

FAX
Would you agree that not everyone who gets seasonal influenza gets confirmed positive?
[Reply]
ptlyon 11:57 AM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by Bwana:
Looks like Canada is locking it up. Justin Trudeau says he will close Canada's border to non-citizens amid pandemic.
Glad I don't have a fishing trip up there planned
[Reply]
SupDock 11:58 AM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Would you agree that not everyone who gets seasonal influenza gets confirmed positive?
This is why it's impossible to debate these things with certain people. They don't know how to use the data that they are using to make their hypothesis

Either you are using confirmed cases or you are using estimated cases
[Reply]
TLO 11:59 AM 03-16-2020
So I can't get in to speak to my counselor for over a week. I wouldn't mind hearing some advice from you guys on things I can do to alleviate this stress and anxiety regarding this disease.

I'd like to stay up to date on the current information, but I do feel like I'm overloading myself right now with TOO much information.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 12:00 PM 03-16-2020

[Reply]
stumppy 12:01 PM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by FAX:
That's a good page.

Let's not talk past each other here, my friend. Okay?

Here are the confirmed case numbers on your page ...

Data Cumulative since
September 29, 2019
(week 40)
222,552 (20.7%)

Agreed?

Now then ... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

22,000 – 55,000
flu deaths

Take the low number and divide it by 222,000 (rounding downish).

Again ... it's probably wise to remember that the CDC's projections on either side of the equation cannot be entirely/perfectly accurate. It's not possible.

FAX
Pretty sure that's no way to come up with accurate data.
[Reply]
Bwana 12:01 PM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
So I can't get in to speak to my counselor for over a week. I wouldn't mind hearing some advice from you guys on things I can do to alleviate this stress and anxiety regarding this disease.

I'd like to stay up to date on the current information, but I do feel like I'm overloading myself right now with TOO much information.
Dude take a breath, seriously.
[Reply]
Marcellus 12:02 PM 03-16-2020
Kind of interesting, I work in an industry where we make shelf stable beverages, mainly protein drinks so we expect a massive increase in sales volume over this.

Problem is a few of our suppliers are shutting down so at some point we may not be able to produce as much product as we need which would be beneficial to most people.

I hope they don't do a national lock down as thats going to cause major problems and as far as I know there isn't a single case of the virus within hundreds of miles.
[Reply]
stumppy 12:02 PM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
So I can't get in to speak to my counselor for over a week. I wouldn't mind hearing some advice from you guys on things I can do to alleviate this stress and anxiety regarding this disease.

I'd like to stay up to date on the current information, but I do feel like I'm overloading myself right now with TOO much information.
Quit reading and posting in this thread.
[Reply]
petegz28 12:02 PM 03-16-2020
I keep hearing this "we know over the next few days we are going to need a lot more ventilators and ICU beds, etc. That may be true but we've been hearing it day after day.

The question is when do you start coming in off the ledge?
[Reply]
Donger 12:03 PM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
So I can't get in to speak to my counselor for over a week. I wouldn't mind hearing some advice from you guys on things I can do to alleviate this stress and anxiety regarding this disease.

I'd like to stay up to date on the current information, but I do feel like I'm overloading myself right now with TOO much information.
Go for a nice walk, work out, and ejaculate. Not necessarily in that order, or at the same time.

Yes, this thing is real and it's here. But, unless and until we see exponential growth, and deaths, just use common sense precautions as much as you can, and carry on as best you can.

Oh, and watch this:

[Reply]
FAX 12:04 PM 03-16-2020
Originally Posted by SupDock:
You cannot use confirmed positive cases when you are using estimated deaths.

Statistically this makes no sense
You'll get no argument from me on that point.

Imagine you're a CDC drone, however .... data rolling in from all over the place ... hundreds of labs run dozens of different ways ... diagnostics reported from both the competent and the incompetent. That must be difficult for a statistician.

So you make your best guess. What choice do you have? Lives are at stake and topical information is crucial so you get it out there.

Reasonably, the best guess might involve "confirmed cases" vs. "mortality". At least you have a hard number of positive test results and a hard number of deaths. Otherwise, you can make assumptions that may or may not be further off base.

If you read my original post, that's an element of my concern. Frankly, the "data" that's being reported via the CDC or the WHO or the NREVSS or hundreds of contributing labs or the media is ultimately unreliable.

If you know the verifiable, incontrovertible facts, please advise. I'm all ears.

FAX
[Reply]
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