Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
The NY state strategy of "protect" everyone has no yielded better results than Sweden, far from it.
We only have limited resources. It doesn't matter how hard you lock down. None of these NPI's can stop the virus. At best a small delay.
Yeah, delay. That was always the idea. Stop, no.
Delay so you can learn. Which we did. We now know how to get the death rate down with different treatment. If we had let her rip in March, would we have known that?
Delaying infections is always preferable. The issue is there are massive tradeoffs and it's not a black and white situation.
New york also didn't shield everyone early enough. Once it gets as embedded as it did then, thats what happens. Plus they fucked everything else up and are basically a case of what not to do. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Yeah, delay. That was always the idea. Stop, no.
Delay so you can learn. Which we did. We now know how to get the death rate down with different treatment. If we had let her rip in March, would we have known that?
Delaying infections is always preferable. The issue is there are massive tradeoffs and it's not a black and white situation.
New york also didn't shield everyone early enough. Once it gets as embedded as it did then, thats what happens. Plus they ****ed everything else up and are basically a case of what not to do.
I'm not convinced treatment has improved all that much. Just think the truly vulnerable died first. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
The virus wasn't prevalent in areas it's hitting now. How would the vulnerable have died then when the virus wasn't there?
Wasn't prevalent where? We weren't doing massive testing when infections most likely peaked. I know NY peak was March, April and it had been spreading for months before that. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Wasn't prevalent where? We weren't doing massive testing when infections most likely peaked. I know NY peak was March, April and it had been spreading for months before that.
Uh, the rest of America? Rural america where it's going crazy now?
As we've seen, as it spreads that quickly, we can see it with hospitalizations and such. I'm guessing it wasn't as prevalent elsewhere then as we didn't see hospitals and such as they are now. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Uh, the rest of America? Rural america where it's going crazy now?
As we've seen, as it spreads that quickly, we can see it with hospitalizations and such. I'm guessing it wasn't as prevalent elsewhere then as we didn't see hospitals and such as they are now.
Yep. We aren't doing very good.
MORGAN STANLEY: “14 US states are currently at or approaching the rate of 200+ hospitalizations [per million], which appears to have triggered many of the EU lockdowns .. These states include SD, ND, MT, NE, IN, WI, IL, MO, MS, OK, AR, KY, TN, and AL.” pic.twitter.com/IE7SFeVGnn
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Yep. We aren't doing very good.
MORGAN STANLEY: “14 US states are currently at or approaching the rate of 200+ hospitalizations [per million], which appears to have triggered many of the EU lockdowns .. These states include SD, ND, MT, NE, IN, WI, IL, MO, MS, OK, AR, KY, TN, and AL.” pic.twitter.com/IE7SFeVGnn
In a population metro of 1 million people, that would only be 200 people in a hospital. That would be 200 people With Covid. That would be because if you go in for a knee surgery and they PCR test you and find dead virus fragments, Boom, you are now a Covid "patient".
I am in marketing, not medical but that 200 per 1 million doesn't sound that impressive. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
In a population metro of 1 million people, that would only be 200 people in a hospital. That would be 200 people With Covid. That would be because if you go in for a knee surgery and they PCR test you and find dead virus fragments, Boom, you are now a Covid "patient".
I am in marketing, not medical but that 200 per 1 million doesn't sound that impressive.
Thats not really how it's happening at this point, atleast here in our area.
It's also not just about beds. We can throw in millions of beds. Gotta have people to staff them and the correct PPE to wear.
We're about to have a pretty large national nitrile glove shortage. They're looking like they could end up like 80 bucks PER BOX. Thats outrageous. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Have fun with that.
I am reminded of the people who sold the War On Terrorism and the War on Drugs. Those great wasted efforts still have loyal cheerleaders, no matter the proof that it was all for nothing.
I'd say the war on drugs worked exactly as intended. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Thats not really how it's happening at this point, atleast here in our area.
It's also not just about beds. We can throw in millions of beds. Gotta have people to staff them and the correct PPE to wear.
We're about to have a pretty large national nitrile glove shortage. They're looking like they could end up like 80 bucks PER BOX. Thats outrageous.
Hospital I work in that's the biggest issue. Staffing We have ICU beds but nurses are scarce. Normally ratio is usually 2 to 1 some are getting 3 to 1 and in the step down unit is usually 4 to 1 they are doing 6 to 1. You also have nurses that are taking jobs in clinic or in other areas of the hospital cause they don't wanna deal with it.i had an ICU nurse tell me as soon as she can find something else she is gone. Tired of the staffing issues.
I have a couple friends in different states that they are facing the same issues. [Reply]
Originally Posted by LTL:
Hospital I work in that's the biggest issue. Staffing We have ICU beds but nurses are scarce. Normally ratio is usually 2 to 1 some are getting 3 to 1 and in the step down unit is usually 4 to 1 they are doing 6 to 1. You also have nurses that are taking jobs in clinic or in other areas of the hospital cause they don't wanna deal with it.i had an ICU nurse tell me as soon as she can find something else she is gone. Tired of the staffing issues.
I have a couple friends in different states that they are facing the same issues.
My mom is a contract / traveling nurse. Has always made great money. The hospital she most recently contracted at earlier this year asked her to come back, she declined, then they told her to name her price. She gave them an hourly rate that was through the roof, thinking they'd never say yes. They said yes. That's how bad these hospitals need nursing staff. [Reply]