Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Ive participated in nation wide medical disaster drills. We have practiced this. I know what the results were. Anyone in the medical field will tell you the same thing. You think because we are USA!USA! We can magically produce more medical supplies, ventilators? 99% are made in China.
This is the reality of a worse case scenerio, a pandemic. Your already seeing it in Italy. China if they were honest, is in much worse shape.
Yes we know, the all knowledgeable BRC. Your expertise knows no bounds.
I take everything you say with a grain of salt. Then add 10 extra grains of salt for good measure. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
It feels like we've done a pretty good job of slowing it down thus far. I don't know how comparable this is to the Swine Flu outbreak of 2009, but here were the numbers from that.
It was estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.
We're about 3 months into the outbreak, (worldwide) and we're at under 100 confirmed cases in the US. (A lot of those cases were people we brought home from hot spot areas) Will the number of cases go up? Almost certainly. But can we limit the cases to communities in which they appear?
I'm trying to be optimistic.. The alternative is too bleak.
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
Slowing it down?
The initial test kits were flawed. 15,000 test kits were released over the weekend but it's so early in this process that there's no way to know how many people have been infected.
Fair point. But if there were multiple serious cases going around, don't you think someone somewhere would have figured it out? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
What we know now is that it's a minimum of 3.4%. If everyone with an open case survives, it's 3.4%. If everyone with an open case dies, it's 49.1%. Based on what we see with closed cases, the best bet is 6.3%. But as noted earlier, it'll likely vary due to some issues like timing of the virus arrival in different areas and whether those Chinese precincts are accurately reporting deaths.
This is not quite correct.
The denominator, the total number of cases, is likely low, because people are probably getting low grade symptoms and not seeking care or getting tested. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
What we know now is that it's a minimum of 3.4%. If everyone with an open case survives, it's 3.4%. If everyone with an open case dies, it's 49.1%. Based on what we see with closed cases, the best bet is 6.3%. But as noted earlier, it'll likely vary due to some issues like timing of the virus arrival in different areas and whether those Chinese precincts are accurately reporting deaths.
All of that still leaves out what is likely to be a large number of people who are infected but otherwise just treat it as a cold or who don't show any symptoms. Obviously the death rates are concerning, but you can't really compare it to similar numbers from the flu until people actually have time to study it in detail.
I haven't seen any estimates from experts that think the true death rate is above 1%. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
Fair point. But if there were multiple serious cases going around, don't you think someone somewhere would have figured it out?
There's up to a 2 week incubation period so the answer to that question is "no". [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
Yes we know, the all knowledgeable BRC. Your expertise knows no bounds.
I take everything you say with a grain of salt. Then add 10 extra grains of salt for good measure.
your hatred of me knows no bounds. I’m Facebook friends with literally over a hundred Planetters. Many are posting in this thread. They know who I am in real life. Yet, none of them are saying I’m FOS, wonder why? [Reply]
Originally Posted by SupDock:
This is not quite correct.
The denominator, the total number of cases, is likely low, because people are probably getting low grade symptoms and not seeking care or getting tested.
Originally Posted by DaFace:
All of that still leaves out what is likely to be a large number of people who are infected but otherwise just treat it as a cold or who don't show any symptoms. Obviously the death rates are concerning, but you can't really compare it to similar numbers from the flu until people actually have time to study it in detail.
I haven't seen any estimates from experts that think the true death rate is above 1%.
Yeah, that's the good news. It's possible that it's far more widespread and most are just able to shrug it off, and so they aren't included in the numbers. I'm not sure how they can test for that, though. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
your hatred of me knows no bounds. I’m Facebook friends with literally over a hundred Planetters. Many are posting in this thread. They know who I am in real life. Yet, none of them are saying I’m FOS, wonder why?
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Yeah, that's the good news. It's possible that it's far more widespread and most are just able to shrug it off, and so they aren't included in the numbers. I'm not sure how they can test for that, though.
The best way to test is actually a CT of the chest, as it presents with ground glass opacities w/ or w/o consolidation, bilateral lung involvement, and an absence of lymphadenopathy.
