usually goes in the next years thread. In this case the 2019 thread which will be posted when the calendar changes.
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Ugh...Profar. Guy would've been a hell of a fit for us and they dumped him for nada.

Minor I think simply has a higher ceiling than Miller right this very second. I think Miller's compromised and while Minor has a pretty nasty injury history, most of that is 2 years in his rearview. I think that speaks to the possibility that he gets hurt again - sure. But I think Miller's hurt now. Or at least has declined physically to the point that his stuff simply isn't as good as Minor's anymore.

Minor can also start. Hell, his stuff as a starter is about on par with what I think you'd get from Miller as a reliever right this very second. In the bullpen I think you'd get a couple ticks added. Additionally, because of Minor's background and pitch arsenal, I think he's a guy better suited for RHers going forward. Miller's slider is nasty enough he's probably still going to be better against lefties (even with lost velocity) than Minor, but Minor will remain plenty credible against lefties and can be trusted to face righties as well. And that said, Minor was SAVAGE against lefties in relief. He was Miller at his best good coming out of the 'pen for KC against LH batters.

Minor, to my eyes, has less immediate injury risk, a higher ceiling, a higher floor and more versatility. The prospect cost would have to be considered, to be sure, but that's the only thing that would make me question the decision. If he could be had for a return on par with the pittance the Rangers got for Profar, I'd make that deal in a second.
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Throw Leake on that list as well.
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Kemp, Puig and Wood all going to Cincy.

Harper's a Dodger; betting that's done by the new year.
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Knew I was missing one.


Man. You’re way more sold on his injury being a permanent degradation than I am. I think two years of heavy postseason use got to him and he’s ready for a bounce back.
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I see the words 'shoulder impingement' and cringe. I've seen too many situations like Mark Mulder just never finding his stuff and Matt Morris leaving a start as a CY contender before feeling 'a knot' in his shoulder before the next start and sucking for the rest of his life.

I get it - I'm irrational in this regard. And yes, Minor had his cut on but he had it cut on and now it appears to be working again. Most guys just don't get them worked on and fade away or they do...and fade away.

And the dual leg issues aren't something to disregard either. That's the sort of nagging perpetual crap that just starts to spring up with older players. That tendinitis issue is especially obnoxious. That stuff never truly goes away - I got it in my ankle 12 years ago and if I run 3-4 miles I end up with this bizarre gnarled knot thing below my shin that they say is just flared up tendinitis. I have it constantly in my elbow during softball season. That stuff is just always there. It's probably wise to just assume it will have him on the DL at least once every season he has remaining.

And he's not Bryce Harper. Which also pisses me off.
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They'd better get Harper then. All the rumors I've seen is that they don't want to give him some mega deal. Wonder if they'll keep Verdugo now that the outfield isn't as packed as it was.
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They met with Machado so they could get Manny. Harper really doesn't want to go to Philly. I can see the scenario where Philly gets shut out of the mega two.
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https://theathletic.com/728870/2018/...uldnt-pass-up/

Lefty Andrew Miller was the lottery ticket the Cardinals couldn’t pass up

By Mark Saxon 1h ago

Two​ brilliant young​ free​ agents​ are​ still​ out​ there, available​ for​ a song and roughly​ one-quarter of​ what​ the franchise​ is​ worth.​​ But since the St. Louis Cardinals have shown no indication of pursuing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, the team has been backed into a corner when it comes to their optics this winter.

They’re cheap, many of their fans argue, stubbornly clinging to middle-class payrolls while piling up “one-percenter” profits from their little fiefdom downtown, Busch Stadium and Ballpark Village. The project, which will make the Cardinals an even bigger presence in the city, grows by the day right across the street from the team’s front offices on Clark Avenue.

They’ve been bad at finding the right free agents lately, some say, overpaying for declining talent in an effort to lure them from bigger cities on the coasts.
They risk wasting the final years of Yadier Molina’s brilliant career.

Make no mistake, the Cardinals’ front office has heard and felt the chorus of displeasure from their fan base — frustrated they’re apparently not in on Harper or Machado — and that has shoved a fiscally conservative group out of its comfort zone.
Four straight seasons out of the playoffs could be the tipping point for ownership to dig deeper than the manager’s office when it looks for ways to get back in championship contention. Bill DeWitt Jr. and the silent partners he speaks for already crossed one rickety bridge, firing manager Mike Matheny, a man they liked and admired but who wasn’t winning enough games.

If things don’t go well in 2019, the mob will come for general manager Michael Girsch and president baseball operations John Mozeliak, too. It’s too soon to blame manager Mike Shildt.

They may not want to, but owners are forced to listen to mobs when they grow to a certain bulk and noise level.

It is, I think, in this context that the Cardinals signed 33-year-old reliever Andrew Miller to a two-year, $25 million contract with a third year that could vest with 110 appearances over the next two seasons. They essentially bought a lottery ticket, aware it could lead to nothing, but hopeful it could pay off massively.

It’s also in that context that they earlier traded for one of the best players in the National League, Paul Goldschmidt, with no guarantees he’ll stick around beyond 2019. Goldschmidt, 31, could join a jailbreak of players leaving the Cardinals after next season. Starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Michael Wacha and cleanup hitter Marcell Ozuna also could reach free agency next November.

The stakes for this organization, and every individual in it, are enormous for 2019. That pressure is forcing the team into an all-in mentality this winter it has rarely taken.

One executive at last week’s winter meetings told me he thought Miller, who dealt with knee and shoulder injuries last season, would end up signing a one-year, incentive-laden deal. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Cardinals overpaid egregiously. MLBTraderumors, which does a great job with these estimations, predicted Miller would sign a three-year, $27 million deal.

Still, the signing is higher stakes than it might at first appear, particularly for the reputations of Girsch and Mozeliak. That’s because over the past three seasons, they have gotten into a bad habit of paying declining 30-something relievers for past performance. Over the previous two offseasons, Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson and Greg Holland put the Cardinals on the hook for $55.5 million. The three pitchers have combined to contribute a 5.10 ERA and a paltry strikeout-to-walk rate of 1.72.

Miller, who has a deserved reputation for philanthropy, came across as friendly and team-oriented in the conference call the Cardinals set up for reporters on Friday. Here’s what he said about the health of his body: “I feel like last year was a grind, and I feel like we put together a plan and I’m in a great place now. I’m confident it’s not going to be an issue and I can show myself to be the pitcher I have been the last however many years.”

Mozeliak gushed, “He has pitched on the biggest stages in the world. He has pitched at an elite level. His character, his competitiveness and his leadership all led us to pursue him this offseason.

“Today we added someone we feel can change the look of our bullpen and we feel will make us very competitive in the NL Central and the National League.”

And if Miller isn’t healthy? People will wonder when the Cardinals will learn their lesson. If Cecil and Gregerson don’t rebound, the Cardinals could have essentially flushed more than $80 million down the toilet. Most front offices nowadays hate overpaying for aging relievers. Many of those front offices viewed Miller as among the riskiest bets on the market.

There were, no doubt, arguments from within this front office to avoid taking on such exposure. It might have been smarter to have signed several failed starters with good raw stuff on minor-league deals and to have given them a chance to compete as relievers this spring. Sign a few Shelby Millers, in other words, and try to turn them into Archie Bradleys. If those guys don’t pan out, you just demote or release them.
The financial pain is minimal. That flexibility is widely coveted.

Given the public pressure to do something, the Cardinals’ front office wasn’t willing to be seen as complacent.

Again, if Miller is healthy, it could be one of the best signings of the offseason. If he’s not, it’s not going to look good for Mozeliak and his group. The fan unrest might, at that point, be the least of their concerns. The people who have been writing all these checks for older relievers might start asking uncomfortable questions.
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Fuck Machado...I don't want him back.
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I've read that they dont want to give him the year but they will max out the AAV.

I would have to imagine if you are dumping outfielders for ****ing Homer Bailey and no legitimate prospects then is has to be for Harper. Took on money and the best prospect coming back doesnt have a single plus grade on any tool. Thats a yikes if Harper signs somewhere else.

EDIT: Actually the money is just about equal assuming Puig is going to get $9M he projects to get in arb.
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What I don't get is that it suggests that Wood and Puig combined have NEGATIVE trade value. I mean they took on Bailey at $28 million and shipped out Kemp while taking on some of his deal at $18 million. They effectively ate $10 million and moved Kemp to rid themselves of Wood and Puig.

But Wood and Puig were arb eligible, no? I mean...non-tender them if you want them gone that bad. I have to be missing something here? What's the upshot that I'm not seeing in trading Kemp for Bailey and getting some organizational chaff thrown in to boot?

It's just very odd to me that they couldn't have found a taker for Wood and Puig that didn't also require them to do that Kemp/Bailey swap. They didn't HAVE to keep Puig and Wood. Did they mis-read the market on those 2 guys that badly?
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To your edit - I read that the way the cap works has that being a net savings to the Dodgers of around $25 million total. I don't know how Craig Edwards got there, but that's what he's saying.

But again - that brings me around to my original point - why not just non-tender the both of them if all you can do with them is include them in a deal allowing you to offload Kemp for Bailey?
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I don't understand this trade from the Dodgers perspective at all. I get the need to clear some payroll for tax reasons, but they could have easily spun those guys off for prospects without needing to take back the worst starter in baseball owed $50 million.
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I forgot to add Wood in the deal.

~$20M for Puig + Wood and $20M, assuming we are talking AAV tax hit, for Kemp.

$17.5M for Bailey.

So ~$22.5M cap savings for the Dodgers. Not sure where he is picking up the extra $2.5. Guess his projections on the arbs for Puig and Wood is higher than MLBTR.
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