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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Bwana 03:44 PM 09-12-2020

[Reply]
lewdog 03:53 PM 09-12-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Daily new hospitalizations in the KC area are at their lowest rate since the end of June.

35% of total beds are available and only 5% are being used for Covid

# of average daily tests is down over 60% from July where it peaked

# of daily new cases is down almost 50% from the peak in July
Oh wow, that's great. It seems in some areas that cases or positive percentage of tests maybe up, but hospitalizations are down. The virus may be weakening in the USA.
[Reply]
petegz28 04:17 PM 09-12-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Oh wow, that's great. It seems in some areas that cases or positive percentage of tests maybe up, but hospitalizations are down. The virus may be weakening in the USA.
The %positive rate is up because testing is down. It's a bullshit statistic when used alone. If I test 100 people and have a 10% positivity rate it doubles to 20% if I test only 50 people and gets cut in half if I test 200 people.

Then you factor in the fact that most people who get tested are people that think there is a need to be tested such as they are sick or have been exposed to someone who tested positive. Therefore the pool of test cases is already slightly skewed to one side of the probability scale.

Unless you are testing at random and at a consistent rate I think the %positive metric is fairly misleading.

Now if I remember correctly I believe it was KU who randomly tested Teachers and Students alike and had a 1.4% positivity rate.

I make a stink about this because the JoCo Dept of Health's lead doctor used the %positivity rate to make the statement that "we have to assume 10% of students are positive" and that is completely inaccurate. At best he could only say that 10% of students that feel sick or have been exposed to someone who tested positive are positive. That's a far cry from 10% of all students are positive.

I mean if you have 30,000 students he is making an assumption that 3,000 are positive. When in reality if you tested kids who felt sick and\or were exposed to someone who tested positive you might come out to maybe a total of 3,000 kids if that and then only 300 of them would actually be positive. And that is being extremely generous as I would think given what I think I have seen the numbers in JoCo would probably more like 30 kids saying they feel sick and we will say another 30 that have been exposed to a person who was positive and you would end up with a whopping 6 positive cases.

That may a bit of an underestimate but I think it's close to the actual if I had to bet $'s.
[Reply]
TLO 09:09 PM 09-12-2020
O. City - have you seen anything on theraputics lately? There's been very little news lately.
[Reply]
O.city 09:55 AM 09-13-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
O. City - have you seen anything on theraputics lately? There's been very little news lately.
Haven’t really. It’s all ben about vaccines

No news is usually good news though
[Reply]
Kidd Lex 10:15 AM 09-13-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Haven’t really. It’s all ben about vaccines

No news is usually good news though
https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...n-storm-2020-9

This is a very interesting story that should immediately help with even better therapeutics if the bradykinin findings are clinically supported.
[Reply]
O.city 10:20 AM 09-13-2020
Yeah the antivirals will always be tough because of their mechanisms and such
It’s more about controlling symptoms and such
[Reply]
TLO 02:13 PM 09-13-2020
Excess Patient Visits for Cough and Pulmonary Disease at a Large US Health System in the Months Prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Time-Series Analysis

Conclusions: A significantly higher number of patients with respiratory complaints and diseases starting in late December 2019 and continuing through February 2020 suggests community spread of SARS-CoV-2 prior to established clinical awareness and testing capabilities. This provides a case example of how health system analytics combined with EHR data can provide powerful and agile tools for identifying when future trends in patient populations are outside of the expected ranges.

https://www.jmir.org/2020/9/e21562/
[Reply]
Mr_Tomahawk 11:41 AM 09-14-2020
Damn....can't let this thread go 24 hours without a post.

Does that mean Covid is over and we are going to move on to something else finally?
[Reply]
htismaqe 11:42 AM 09-14-2020
Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk:
Damn....can't let this thread go 24 hours without a post.

Does that mean Covid is over and we are going to move on to something else finally?
Where's your mask mister?
[Reply]
Mr_Tomahawk 11:47 AM 09-14-2020
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
Where's your mask mister?
I have a beard.
[Reply]
htismaqe 11:48 AM 09-14-2020
Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk:
I have a beard.
Make it a comb-"upper". :-)
[Reply]
O.city 11:50 AM 09-14-2020
TLO, did you see any of the news on the Regeneron AB cocktail?
[Reply]
loochy 01:42 PM 09-14-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Excess Patient Visits for Cough and Pulmonary Disease at a Large US Health System in the Months Prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Time-Series Analysis

Conclusions: A significantly higher number of patients with respiratory complaints and diseases starting in late December 2019 and continuing through February 2020 suggests community spread of SARS-CoV-2 prior to established clinical awareness and testing capabilities. This provides a case example of how health system analytics combined with EHR data can provide powerful and agile tools for identifying when future trends in patient populations are outside of the expected ranges.

https://www.jmir.org/2020/9/e21562/

I've said it before, but my wife saw an abnormally high number of pneumonia cases and "flu" that came back negative last winter. I even remember her commenting on how strange it was back then.
[Reply]
htismaqe 01:47 PM 09-14-2020
Originally Posted by loochy:
I've said it before, but my wife saw an abnormally high number of pneumonia cases and "flu" that came back negative last winter. I even remember her commenting on how strange it was back then.
We had something similar here. My daughter and my brother-in-law both were tested for multiple respiratory conditions last winter and both of them ended up being diagnosed with an "unknown virus".
[Reply]
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