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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
petegz28 08:45 AM 08-18-2020
Originally Posted by loochy:
No. People were still free to move, mingle, and leave.

He means NO ins or outs, military blockades on all roads, no air or boat traffic, etc...national guard patrolling the streets and not letting anyone come out...you know, Wuhan-esque

But it still would have popped up and ignited elsewhere. It was inevitable.
Exactly. We aren't Italy. We aren't Germany. Our country is the size of their entire continent, generally speaking. We are spread out much more. We have a completely different type of economy.

And we still have less deaths per capita than Italy. Of all the places she picked I don't know that she could have picked a worse one.

And this morning I saw a blurb that the nursing home deaths in NY are more closer to 11,000 than 6,600. So a decent portion of our deaths came from some not-so-smart decisions on the part of some of our governors as well.
[Reply]
kgrund 09:06 AM 08-18-2020
I think just as many questions will need to be answered when the dust settles such as (1) did we need to lockdown at all? (2) was the PCR test really the best test to utilize to monitor this pandemic? and (3) why was the public health reporting so poor that it never gave the general public a true sense of the extent of the pandemic at any point in time? These are just three questions that could easily linger as long as whether or not we should have had an aggressive lockdown IMO.
[Reply]
petegz28 09:27 AM 08-18-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
I think just as many questions will need to be answered when the dust settles such as (1) did we need to lockdown at all? (2) was the PCR test really the best test to utilize to monitor this pandemic? and (3) why was the public health reporting so poor that it never gave the general public a true sense of the extent of the pandemic at any point in time? These are just three questions that could easily linger as long as whether or not we should have had an aggressive lockdown IMO.
I think the answer to question 1 is most definitely a yes. We did need to lockdown to a point until we saw what it was we were dealing with. We didn't know what would happen to the hospitals so a few weeks to determine that was needed.

That being said I think we stayed locked down way to long for some things such as elective procedures and some of the small businesses. Fear was and still is what is driving our decisions though people will claim it's the data. When I see the data I don't see proportional responses. I think in many cases the responses are based in fear and not the data. I know several will disagree with me on that but that's how things go.

I will keep referring to the schools as an example of reacting to fear and not the data. In my state at least and particularly my county there is no evidence in any data that there should not be an in-person option. There isn't any data to suggest that Teachers or students are in any more danger from Covid than yes, wait for it, the flu at this point.

According to the CDC 185 children died from the flu this past flu season. According to the CDC there have only been 86 deaths from Covid in kids 0-18. I don't know what the underlyings were in those but I will take it all at face value.

I will say that there needs to be accommodations for Teachers with high risk but by in large the data in and of itself does not show that children are at any more risk than they are during flu season. In fact, the data as I see says the opposite to be honest.

I just think that the school situation is a good example of allowing fear to dictate policy and not the data. The exceptions being places like LA where there was a hard run on the hospitals. We don't want people dying from lack of resources. But other than that for the majority of the country the data says it is safe to get back to school.


My long-winded rant aside, the other two questions you pose are very good ones.
[Reply]
KCUnited 09:30 AM 08-18-2020
Imagine ordering a lockdown around the same time we told people to stop buying masks because they weren't effective
[Reply]
Marcellus 09:38 AM 08-18-2020
Originally Posted by KCUnited:
Imagine ordering a lockdown around the same time we told people to stop buying masks because they weren't effective
Yea there is a ton of revisionist history with the timeline going on. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
[Reply]
jd1020 09:43 AM 08-18-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Yea there is a ton of revisionist history with the timeline going on. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
Indeed. Its almost like we have learned more and more about covid-19 the more we were exposed to it.
[Reply]
Marcellus 09:48 AM 08-18-2020
Originally Posted by jd1020:
Indeed. Its almost like we have learned more and more about covid-19 the more we were exposed to it.
No shit but that's not nearly the same as assigning blame for what we didn't do then based only on what we know now.
[Reply]
O.city 10:09 AM 08-18-2020
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...safe-reopening
[Reply]
O.city 10:11 AM 08-18-2020

Absolutely massive protests have erupted across South Korea. Protestors are demanding a loosing of #COVID19 restrictions. pic.twitter.com/VWfdCToaUz

— SV News �� (@SVNewsAlerts) August 17, 2020

[Reply]
Kidd Lex 10:27 AM 08-18-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...safe-reopening
We’ve been saying this is likely the case for a few months now:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/h...-immunity.html

Still a lot of “maybes” and “could be’s” but anyone who’s been paying attention can see this is almost certainly the case.
[Reply]
petegz28 10:57 AM 08-18-2020
Originally Posted by KCUnited:
Imagine ordering a lockdown around the same time we told people to stop buying masks because they weren't effective
There was the mask ordeal. There was political infighting all over the media about the travel ban to China. There were politicians saying to come party in Chinatown because it was safe. I mean you had a lot of early messaging both medically and politically that set the tone going forward.

Then after they started to get people to come along willfully or not you had the "protests". And with those you had medical professionals excusing and even encouraging them so I think that caused a lot of people to throw their hands up about a lot too. I mean it's a hard sell to a lot of people at that point.
[Reply]
O.city 12:20 PM 08-18-2020
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...rce=reddit.com
[Reply]
Demonpenz 12:37 PM 08-18-2020
Originally Posted by jdubya:
I wonder how many are symptomatic and/or hospitalized.
Lotsm. Complete failure on UNC
[Reply]
O.city 12:49 PM 08-18-2020

Interesting paper in @AnnalsofIM on #COVID19 contact tracing

Attack rate highly correlated with symptom severity; minimal transmission from asymptomatic carriers

As children ? most likely to be asymptomatic, could explain low levels of transmissionhttps://t.co/wqSESWHErF pic.twitter.com/9LRwaHRhR7

— Alasdair Munro (@apsmunro) August 18, 2020

[Reply]
Kidd Lex 12:52 PM 08-18-2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7

More good news. Starting to look like the IFR from antibody tests is still high, and that many people won’t show on antibody testing but do have t-cell protection.
[Reply]
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