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Nzoner's Game Room>*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***
Chiefspants 10:55 AM 04-05-2017
Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
mr. tegu 06:15 AM 07-20-2017
We can really stop including Esky in the hopeless offense discussion. He has been his normal self, if not better at times, for quite a while now.
[Reply]
Why Not? 06:58 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
Seems like a lot of his homers have come in garbage time when they're just throwing strikes.
At first thought, and I'm not going to do any research, I don't think that's true. Or at the least his ratio of garbage time to "game impacting" homers is not that different from anyone else. He had the game winning homer in Houston, the monster at the K a few weeks ago, last night and at least one other late inning blast at home that was important.
[Reply]
penbrook 08:51 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
We can really stop including Esky in the hopeless offense discussion. He has been his normal self, if not better at times, for quite a while now.
I've been saying that for awhile now. The last month or so he is on fire. Hell he is even taking walks. He said he fixed his approach. He's being more patient and not swinging at the first pitch. The good ones know how to get out of a slump. Gordon on the other hand ugh
[Reply]
siberian khatru 09:18 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by penbrook:
I've been saying that for awhile now. The last month or so he is on fire. Hell he is even taking walks.
Three walks in his last five games, after not drawing a BB in his previous 29 games, and one in 19 games before that. So one walk in 48 games, followed by three in five.

Baseball is a funny game.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 09:19 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin:
Not really Moss' fault.

He has been bad, no doubt, but can't really control runners getting on in front of him before he blasts one . . . . .
Brandon Moss has a .114 batting average with runners in scoring position and has struck out in 50% of his at-bats.

He's had 8 opportunities with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs - he has 1 hit and 5 strikeouts in those opportunities.

Everything Brandon Moss can do to diminish his RBI opportunities, he does. He won't shorten up and take a pitch the other way. He won't try to go up the middle. He won't even try to work himself into a hitters count. Nope, in an RBI situation he's gonna do the same thing he always does - grip it and rip it. And miss.

And the reason he doesn't hit bombs with runners on (or high leverage situations) is simple - he's easy to pitch to. Hes shockingly easy to pitch to. His hips are gone so he can't go down and get pitches and he's never been particularly good at hitting high pitches even when he was 'good'. He doesn't have 'cold zones' - he has a tiny little hot zone right in the middle of the plate - literally any other place you throw the ball, you're almost certain to get him out.

Y'all are still shell-shocked by his playoff game, I guess. But the bottom line is that Brandon Moss is a TERRIBLE baseball player. Just terrible. He can't field, he can't run, he can't hit. If a pitcher has a nice lead or is way behind, he'll just fire fastballs down the middle and occasionally Moss will time one and hit it hard.

Yesterday was his blind squirrel/nut moment. Tony Cruz once hit a homerun in the playoffs against Madison Bumgarner in a tie game and he's the worst player I've ever seen.

Don't talk yourself into Brandon Moss in any capacity. He's not unlucky. he's not in a cold streak. The guy just sucks.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 09:30 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by Why Not?:
At first thought, and I'm not going to do any research, I don't think that's true. Or at the least his ratio of garbage time to "game impacting" homers is not that different from anyone else. He had the game winning homer in Houston, the monster at the K a few weeks ago, last night and at least one other late inning blast at home that was important.
Zero homers in high leverage situations this year. Zero.

Now interestingly 8 of them have been in 'medium leverage' situations - so closer games in the early/mid innings. 3 have been in low leverage situations (blowouts).

I think the high leverage definition is a little strict; looking at his gamelogs I'd give him 1 in high leverage (8th inning bomb in a game the Royals were up by 1), but I understand why they don't - his HR didn't technically accomplish anything.

And it may be less of a 'pitch differently' thing than a 'different pitcher' thing. If it's the 7th inning and you've got a righty up there at 95 pitches and a 2-3 run lead, you'll leave him in there to face Moss even if he's starting to tire out. And if a runner gets on in front of him, that pitcher's coming out and Moss is going to have to face a fresh arm or simply a better pitcher.

And that's not who he can hit. Mistake hitters just don't hit quality pitching and Moss is no exception. Over large enough numbers, they'll stumble into one (again, Tony Cruz hit one off Madison Bumgarner), but as a rule, hitters like Moss just provide hollow offense and nothing else.

Eh, maybe he'll be able to drag himself over replacement level by the end of the year, but I doubt it.
[Reply]
Chiefspants 09:30 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Brandon Moss has a .114 batting average with runners in scoring position and has struck out in 50% of his at-bats.

He's had 8 opportunities with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs - he has 1 hit and 5 strikeouts in those opportunities.

Everything Brandon Moss can do to diminish his RBI opportunities, he does. He won't shorten up and take a pitch the other way. He won't try to go up the middle. He won't even try to work himself into a hitters count. Nope, in an RBI situation he's gonna do the same thing he always does - grip it and rip it. And miss.

And the reason he doesn't hit bombs with runners on (or high leverage situations) is simple - he's easy to pitch to. Hes shockingly easy to pitch to. His hips are gone so he can't go down and get pitches and he's never been particularly good at hitting high pitches even when he was 'good'. He doesn't have 'cold zones' - he has a tiny little hot zone right in the middle of the plate - literally any other place you throw the ball, you're almost certain to get him out.

Y'all are still shell-shocked by his playoff game, I guess. But the bottom line is that Brandon Moss is a TERRIBLE baseball player. Just terrible. He can't field, he can't run, he can't hit. If a pitcher has a nice lead or is way behind, he'll just fire fastballs down the middle and occasionally Moss will time one and hit it hard.

Yesterday was his blind squirrel/nut moment. Tony Cruz once hit a homerun in the playoffs against Madison Bumgarner in a tie game and he's the worst player I've ever seen.

Don't talk yourself into Brandon Moss in any capacity. He's not unlucky. he's not in a cold streak. The guy just sucks.
Did the Cardinals ever sport a lineup that featured Moss, Vintage Adams, Wong and Cruz?
[Reply]
siberian khatru 09:31 AM 07-20-2017
Mariners getting David Phelps from the Marlins for four players
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 09:51 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by Chiefspants:
Did the Cardinals ever sport a lineup that featured Moss, Vintage Adams, Wong and Cruz in the same lineup?
Probably.

There's a good chance I turned into an apoplectic rage monster and just blacked out.

Edit: YES! One time that I can find. They may have all been on the field together a time or two but this was the only time they all started together.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...01509170.shtml

Man would you look at that beauty of a lineup. Adams at 1b, Moss in LF, Wong at 2b and Cruz at C. Combined 4/15 with 4 strikeouts, 0 RBI, 0 Runs scored and a tidy triple slash line of .266/.266/.266 for an OPS of .533.

And hell, that's better than I thought they'd do.
[Reply]
penbrook 09:53 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by siberian khatru:
Mariners getting David Phelps from the Marlins for four players
They're getting OF Brayan Hernandez, RHPs Brandon Miller, Lukas Schiraldi and Pablo Lopez
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 10:04 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by penbrook:
They're getting OF Brayan Hernandez, RHPs Brandon Miller, Lukas Schiraldi and Pablo Lopez
Hey, it's Calvin Schiraldi's kid!
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 10:56 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But 'where he was' is still prone as hell to getting wrecked by lefties because he refuses to challenge them with fastballs at their hands and doesn't have the breaking pitch to beat them away. So he just nibbles till he walks them or feeds them a cockshot.
Okay, so newest reports are that the Royals are waiting on the Cardinals to decide if they're sellers on Lynn, who is starting today. Once again confirming that the Cardinals are run by fucking retards.

But beyond that, should you get Lynn, I want you to go look at the AB he just had against Lucas Duda, a perfectly adequate but by no means excellent lefthanded hitter and you will get the entire Lance Lynn story.

His ' nibble away, away, away, cockshot' pattern I referenced above was just perfectly demonstrated. 7 pitch AB where he starts out 3-1 and in it he threw a single pitch on the inner half. Pitches 3-4-5-6 were all away and Duda just kept spitting on them or fouling them off because he doesn't have to be inside conscious.

And pitch 7? The inevitable cockshot that Lynn ALWAYS throws when he's tired of trying to figure out how to get a lefty out. "Jesus this at-bat has taken a long time, just fucking hit it already" and right down the chute.

He's amazing against right-handed hitters; honestly one of the best in the game. But he's just fucking helpless against anyone that hits from the wrong side of the plate.
[Reply]
BWillie 11:06 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
We can really stop including Esky in the hopeless offense discussion. He has been his normal self, if not better at times, for quite a while now.
Yes we can. He has the worst OPS in all of baseball. Think about that. THE VERY WORST. 120 out of 120 of qualified players. He's that bad. Every players go on streaks where they don't suck. He's been god awful this year.
[Reply]
mr. tegu 11:12 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Yes we can. He has the worst OPS in all of baseball. Think about that. THE VERY WORST. 120 out of 120 of qualified players. He's that bad. Every players go on streaks where they don't suck. He's been god awful this year.
A month and a half is more than a simple hot streak. He has been more than adequate since the end of May. His season totals do not reflect who he is and certainly not who he has been for a month and a half. He is no longer an offensive liability, which was the context of my post.
[Reply]
siberian khatru 11:20 AM 07-20-2017
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Okay, so newest reports are that the Royals are waiting on the Cardinals to decide if they're sellers on Lynn, who is starting today. Once again confirming that the Cardinals are run by fucking retards.

But beyond that, should you get Lynn, I want you to go look at the AB he just had against Lucas Duda, a perfectly adequate but by no means excellent lefthanded hitter and you will get the entire Lance Lynn story.

His ' nibble away, away, away, cockshot' pattern I referenced above was just perfectly demonstrated. 7 pitch AB where he starts out 3-1 and in it he threw a single pitch on the inner half. Pitches 3-4-5-6 were all away and Duda just kept spitting on them or fouling them off because he doesn't have to be inside conscious.

And pitch 7? The inevitable cockshot that Lynn ALWAYS throws when he's tired of trying to figure out how to get a lefty out. "Jesus this at-bat has taken a long time, just fucking hit it already" and right down the chute.

He's amazing against right-handed hitters; honestly one of the best in the game. But he's just fucking helpless against anyone that hits from the wrong side of the plate.

You really know how to make a sale.
[Reply]
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