Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
I have been hearing "we are headed to being like Italy" for the last week. I am starting to doubt that more and more. Hopefully the people saying this are very wrong. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I have been hearing "we are headed to being like Italy" for the last week. I am starting to doubt that more and more. Hopefully the people saying this are very wrong.
I agree. Although I think CoronaVirus cases will continue to increase in USA for quite some time but not on that scale. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Meanwhile, no one anywhere else in the world is having the problems Italy is having. Why is that?
Several posts down --
Originally Posted by :
Italy is about 10 days ahead of Spain, Germany, and France in the epidemic progression, and 13 to 16 days ahead of the United Kingdom and the United States.
And of course China has many more deaths than Italy at this point. [Reply]
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
I agree. Although I think CoronaVirus cases will continue to increase in USA for quite some time but not on that scale.
I fully expect the number of cases to increase. Hopefully the death rate continues to decrease as they do. So far that is what we are seeing. Let's hope that is the trend. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Mortality rate in US is now under 2%. Let's hope it keeps going down.
That is now. It might be better to get it earlier than later. I'm not optimistic about stopping the spread in big populations. Most people either think it's the end of the world or imaginary/no big deal and both are bad.
Restrict your exposure to other people as much as possible, cut out risky behaviors (getting wasted, big gatherings, sex with Clay,) and don't panic.
There's a link to a gal's youtube video below that talks about already getting it and having a mild reaction. She already got tested and is waiting for results. She is a very political person but I don't remember anything political in the vid. TLDR is she had hot/cold flashes, high (bearable) fever, and difficulty breathing. I think it took her about 2 weeks to kick it. She was not hospitalized and her experience was basically a 2 week shitty flu experience.
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
COVID-19 isn’t just the flu?
COVID-19 has been described by some as “just a cold,” or just like the common flu. COVID-19 is not a common flu. COVID-19 is an order of magnitude worse than the flu. The fatality rate is approximately ten times worse than the flu.
The flu spreads from September through April in the U.S., and June through August in the Southern Hemisphere. Yes, it does cause severe illness in many, but it does so over a longer time course. Time is a variable that is working against us during this COVID-19 outbreak. COVID-19 victims will be presenting to a hospital in need of critical care at a rate that is far higher than occurs with the flu.
In addition, these patients will require hospital treatment over the course of a few weeks rather than the 3-4 months of a typical flu season. The health care system in the USA is not ready to handle tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people over a short time frame. In Italy, the health care system buckled under the strain, and the health care teams are now forced to make horrible life and death decisions.
COVID-19 is a severe respiratory illness caused by the virus named SARS-CoV2. It is a novel virus, which means that no one in the world has antibodies to it because no one has ever been infected by it before. As such, when the COVID-19 virus invades our body, we do not have antibodies. We do not have a template to utilize from a previous exposure to rapidly create a defense against the virus. Because no one has antibodies, everyone is at risk for catching the virus, becoming ill, and spreading the virus so that it can infect those around you.
Exponential math is very hard to grasp. Every person with the COVID-19 virus infects approximately two people. Some less, some more. The infection rate doubles every six days. That means that if 50,000 people have the virus today, then in 6 days, 100,000 people will have it. In another 12 days it’s 400,000 and less than two weeks later it’s over a million people. We have 330 million people in the US. The experts expect that 40-70% of people will be infected. Exponential growth does not take that long to get to those scary high numbers. Every six days, we delay the number of infections double. This YouTube video does a great job of explaining this.
This is not an apples to apples comparison at this point.
There are far less diagnosed cases of COVID-19 than the seasonal flu at this point.
As the testing becomes more widespread there are going to be more confirmed cases of COVID-19 in people who have just minor symptoms (and before widespread testing they could have easily passed their symptoms off as the cold and not a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis).
Right now the majority of people who are getting the confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis skew to be more sick which is why they are at a hospital/doctor and able to get the testing. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I have been hearing "we are headed to being like Italy" for the last week. I am starting to doubt that more and more. Hopefully the people saying this are very wrong.
Other countries learned from their mistake and are taking more aggressive measures.The same measures being bashed as panic and overreacting by some. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I have been hearing "we are headed to being like Italy" for the last week. I am starting to doubt that more and more. Hopefully the people saying this are very wrong.
That has been one of my biggest questions is why are people saying that? We had our first known case before Italy back in January 22 and our first death before them.
We are now almost 8 weeks in with this on our shore and if you look at China it took about a month then shit it the fan. Same with Italy their first case was 1-31 and by early March it was getting much worse. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rausch:
That is now. It might be better to get it earlier than later. I'm not optimistic about stopping the spread in big populations. Most people either think it's the end of the world or imaginary/no big deal and both are bad.
Restrict your exposure to other people as much as possible, cut out risky behaviors (getting wasted, big gatherings, sex with Clay,) and don't panic.
There's a link to a gal's youtube video below that talks about already getting it and having a mild reaction. She already got tested and is waiting for results. She is a very political person but I don't remember anything political in the vid. TLDR is she had hot/cold flashes, high (bearable) fever, and difficulty breathing. I think it took her about 2 weeks to kick it. She was not hospitalized and her experience was basically a 2 week shitty flu experience.
