Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
waste of time to talk about it, unless one of you gets it and will die.
you dont have it. None you know has it. Just another hoax, like bird flu or Sars or what ever.
nothing happened with those. They didnt fly ebola into the usa a couple years ago either. [Reply]
It’s silly to compare number of recoveries to number of deaths in the Western World at the moment, because the real outbreak in Europe happened during last week and it takes at least two weeks to officially recover. [Reply]
Originally Posted by CarlosCarson88:
waste of time to talk about it, unless one of you gets it and will die.
you dont have it. None you know has it. Just another hoax, like bird flu or Sars or what ever.
nothing happened with those. They didnt fly ebola into the usa a couple years ago either.
I live in central Cali and this is a very real situation, if you think it's some hoax you couldn't be more wrong. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Honestly, this is pretty disturbing. Check out Post 378. Unless there's some particular reason for people outside China to be more vulnerable, I think China's death numbers are either understated or they're being really liberal on their diagnoses. But in the latter case, that would still mean that the death rate is really high for those who get it.
Can anyone give me a good theory on why people outside China are dying at triple the rate of the Chinese?
Because so far the majority of the people showing severe illness outside of China are elderly? That's my theory. [Reply]
I watched a video with Dr. Marc Siegel this morning. The "official" death rate is currently 1.4%. He said this is concerning, but that it will likely drop as more rapid testing becomes available. It's widely believed that there are thousands upon thousands of cases that have gone undiagnosed due to mild symptoms. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Schnitzel:
It’s silly to compare number of recoveries to number of deaths in the Western World at the moment, because the real outbreak in Europe happened during last week and it takes at least two weeks to officially recover.
Meant to thumbs up. This is a solid point. [Reply]
Originally Posted by CarlosCarson88:
waste of time to talk about it, unless one of you gets it and will die.
you dont have it. None you know has it. Just another hoax, like bird flu or Sars or what ever.
nothing happened with those. They didnt fly ebola into the usa a couple years ago either.
Because it's not affecting me directly, I don't care about it! Yet I will talk about it on public boards to say that I think it's a waste of time to talk about! [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
I agree with Wazu on this. To calculate the death rate, we don't include cases that are not yet concluded by either death or recovery, because we don't yet know their outcomes. To calculate the death rate, we divide deaths by (deaths plus recoveries), which gives me 6.3 percent.
That isn't how it's calculated. It's called case fatality rate, if memory serves, and it's deaths divided by total cases. And, yes, it varies. If using just known outcomes, you could also say that ~50% of those who contract the virus (90,000 and 45,000) recover. We better hope that the recovery rate (when known) ends up being better than ~50%, because that will mean ~50% deaths. [Reply]
I enjoy listening to Dr. Z podcasts; here he interviews an epidemiologist regarding the novel corona-virus. Worth a listen, IMO.
BLUF: No vaccines for about a year for this one; it's going to do what it will. Particle masks / N95 masks are merely a gesture for those not infected. If you already have it, it will help prevent you spreading to others... [Reply]
