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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
O.city 02:26 PM 07-21-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Here is the link to the CDC serology. Am I reading this right, in MO they are saying 2.8% of the population has been infected based on their estimate?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...dashboard.html
Based on that, when they did the tests, yes. So what, late April?
[Reply]
dirk digler 02:27 PM 07-21-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Here is the link to the CDC serology. Am I reading this right, in MO they are saying 2.8% of the population has been infected based on their estimate?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...dashboard.html
So I guess I am reading that right. Also these serology tests have a high false positive so if they are estimating 2.8% for MO then we aren't anywhere close to herd immunity. Heck they are showing NY Metro at 23.2%
[Reply]
dirk digler 02:29 PM 07-21-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Based on that, when they did the tests, yes. So what, late April?
Round 2 was May 25-May 30
[Reply]
Kiimo 02:39 PM 07-21-2020
It's interesting that people in this thread tend to believe that the number of people with it is under-reported but the people that die with it is over-reported.


Here's an article that suggests otherwise:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...lassified-such

Originally Posted by :
About 30% of COVID deaths may not be classified as such

[Reply]
O.city 02:45 PM 07-21-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
So I guess I am reading that right. Also these serology tests have a high false positive so if they are estimating 2.8% for MO then we aren't anywhere close to herd immunity. Heck they are showing NY Metro at 23.2%
That one doesn't have that high of a false positive rate. I'm guessing it's a pretty solid ELISA.

With the addition of those not actually showing high enough levels of antibodies, we might be closer than we think.
[Reply]
Donger 02:51 PM 07-21-2020
Task force briefing scheduled for 5:00pm EDT
[Reply]
TLO 03:01 PM 07-21-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
That one doesn't have that high of a false positive rate. I'm guessing it's a pretty solid ELISA.

With the addition of those not actually showing high enough levels of antibodies, we might be closer than we think.
I want to know what areas were sampled. Where were the majority of the tests done, etc?

Originally Posted by Donger:
Task force briefing scheduled for 5:00pm EDT
I have it pulled up now.
[Reply]
TLO 03:05 PM 07-21-2020
Originally Posted by Kiimosabi:
It's interesting that people in this thread tend to believe that the number of people with it is under-reported but the people that die with it is over-reported.


Here's an article that suggests otherwise:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...lassified-such
I'm a firm believer that the true case count for numbers infected would blow our minds.

I also won't dispute that the death count is also higher than reported.

We'll probably never truly know the numbers on either side.
[Reply]
stumppy 03:09 PM 07-21-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Task force briefing scheduled for 5:00pm EDT
Briefing for what?
[Reply]
TLO 03:15 PM 07-21-2020
Median age of those who have died =78
Over half the deaths have come from individuals in nursing homes.

:-)
[Reply]
Marcellus 03:27 PM 07-21-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Median age of those who have died =78
Over half the deaths have come from individuals in nursing homes.

:-)
And there are likely at least 10X the known number of cases, yet here we are.
[Reply]
lewdog 03:28 PM 07-21-2020
My 56 year old coworker is still in the hospital battling COVID PNA, going on day 10. He was given convalescent plasma over the weekend but continues to desat into the 70's, with light activity, even on oxygen. He has no prior health issues but simply waited too long at home before seeking help, IMO. Partly because his 80 year old mother, who is COVID positive, was refused medical care to the hospital 2 weeks ago when she called 911. They told her she "looked fine" and needed to manage at home because the hospitals were full. I convinced him to seek help but it was probably a few days too late.

A pulse oximeter is a MUST to have if you're positive. Even if you feel "decent," continue to check it multiple times per day while you are home.

My coworker's name in Joe and he's very Christian. A great man who is honestly struggling for his life right now. I've worked with him for 8 years and he would appreciate any prayers you could give him.
[Reply]
TLO 03:32 PM 07-21-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
My 56 year old coworker is still in the hospital battling COVID PNA, going on day 10. He was given convalescent plasma over the weekend but continues to desat into the 70's, with light activity, even on oxygen. He has no prior health issues but simply waited too long at home before seeking help, IMO. Partly because his 80 year old mother, who is COVID positive, was refused medical care to the hospital 2 weeks ago when she called 911. They told her she "looked fine" and needed to manage at home because the hospitals were full. I convinced him to seek help but it was probably a few days too late.

A pulse oximeter is a MUST to have if you're positive. Even if you feel "decent," continue to check it multiple times per day while you are home.

My coworker's name in Joe and he's very Christian. A great man who is honestly struggling for his life right now. I've worked with him for 8 years and he would appreciate any prayers you could give him.
Very well said. Prayers that Joe gets better soon.
[Reply]
O.city 03:33 PM 07-21-2020
How you doin Lew?
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 03:35 PM 07-21-2020
CDC was at .26 then they moved it up to .65 with no new data after April.

I am going with Ioannidis at Stanford and Oxford CEBM where it will be below .26 overall, less than .1 if you are not in a nursing home.
[Reply]
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