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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Donger 07:39 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by chiefzilla999:
What's the alternative?
At the minimum, everyone masking up and practicing social distancing to try to drive the R0 below 1. We had that alternative and "we" chose not to follow it. This is the result.
[Reply]
Donger 07:41 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
It’s too early to tell if herd immunity will actually work based on the immunology studies, which are too early to draw concrete conclusions from. There’s a current chance that you don’t gain permanent immunity once you’ve had this virus based on current data.
And we'd be doing it without a vaccine. 60% of the population is almost 200,000,000 cases. We don't want to do that with a CFR of ~.4 or .5%
[Reply]
O.city 07:49 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
And we'd be doing it without a vaccine. 60% of the population is almost 200,000,000 cases. We don't want to do that with a CFR of ~.4 or .5%
I don't think it'll end up needing 60% to get there. With how quickly the curves have come down in hard hit areas, it's probably less.

With things popping up now showing some have some previous immunity, it'll lower everything. Hopefully at least.
[Reply]
Donger 07:53 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
I don't think it'll end up needing 60% to get there. With how quickly the curves have come down in hard hit areas, it's probably less.

With things popping up now showing some have some previous immunity, it'll lower everything. Hopefully at least.
What's the highest percentage we've seen in those hard hit areas? Last I saw, even NYC was something in the 12% range.
[Reply]
kgrund 07:56 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
I don't think it'll end up needing 60% to get there. With how quickly the curves have come down in hard hit areas, it's probably less.

With things popping up now showing some have some previous immunity, it'll lower everything. Hopefully at least.
I have read that herd immunity could be as low as 10%-20% when the population is not viewed as totally homogeneous. The population would not be considered homogeneous due to the the variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others. I believe this speaks to your point.
[Reply]
Kidd Lex 08:07 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
I have read that herd immunity could be as low as 10%-20% when the population is not viewed as totally homogeneous. The population would not be considered homogeneous due to the the variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others. I believe this speaks to your point.
It’s possible Herd Immunity is already happening in Sweden. Once the virus burns through the population it seems to largely burn out. In the US that only really happened in most places after reopening, so we are in the thick of things now in the South and California and looking like the Midwest is heading there too. Only way places like Sweden and New York peaked so hard and then calmed down is a much lower herd immunity rate then 60% with a fairly large amount of the population having some natural immunity to Covid-19 imo.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...d-2020-7%3Famp
[Reply]
Eleazar 08:25 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by Kidd Lex:
It’s possible Herd Immunity is already happening in Sweden. Once the virus burns through the population it seems to largely burn out. In the US that only really happened in most places after reopening, so we are in the thick of things now in the South and California and looking like the Midwest is heading there too. Only way places like Sweden and New York peaked so hard and then calmed down is a much lower herd immunity rate then 60% with a fairly large amount of the population having some natural immunity to Covid-19 imo.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...d-2020-7%3Famp
Yeah, no way to know how many people are truly susceptible to it, and this could vary widely across different countries, different population centers in the same country, ethnic groups... who knows
[Reply]
RunKC 08:28 AM 07-09-2020
Ravens will only have 20% fan attendance. That is a huge advantage for us when we go there this Fall

2020 Ravens season tickets will be deferred to 2021.

If permitted under state and local government regulations to have fans attend games in 2020, a reduced seating capacity at M&T Bank Stadium will be in place of fewer than 14,000 seats per game.

��: https://t.co/Y83BkJUYDV pic.twitter.com/FN9jWTyTea

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) July 8, 2020

[Reply]
Kidd Lex 08:29 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
Yeah, no way to know how many people are truly susceptible to it, and this could vary widely across different countries, different population centers in the same country, ethnic groups... who knows
Very true, especially when multiple studies have shown blood types to have different infection rates and disease outcomes. Good time to be blood type O.
[Reply]
O.city 08:41 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
I have read that herd immunity could be as low as 10%-20% when the population is not viewed as totally homogeneous. The population would not be considered homogeneous due to the the variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others. I believe this speaks to your point.
Originally Posted by Kidd Lex:
It’s possible Herd Immunity is already happening in Sweden. Once the virus burns through the population it seems to largely burn out. In the US that only really happened in most places after reopening, so we are in the thick of things now in the South and California and looking like the Midwest is heading there too. Only way places like Sweden and New York peaked so hard and then calmed down is a much lower herd immunity rate then 60% with a fairly large amount of the population having some natural immunity to Covid-19 imo.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...d-2020-7%3Famp
If it is truly 60%, you probably wouldn't have the down turns in places like Sweden and NY that you do.

There's something else goin on there. HI won't be the same everywhere either. It may be more or less in different places.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 08:44 AM 07-09-2020
Once the deaths hit a peak and begin dropping it means herd immunity is building. Sweden is all set now as their deaths are now near 0 daily.

Traditionally, coronaviruses hit saturation at about 25% and then stop.
[Reply]
Donger 08:56 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Once the deaths hit a peak and begin dropping it means herd immunity is building. Sweden is all set now as their deaths are now near 0 daily.
No, it doesn't mean that.

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Traditionally, coronaviruses hit saturation at about 25% and then stop.
Based on which precedents?
[Reply]
O.city 08:57 AM 07-09-2020
That would be nice. If that's the case, some of these hotspot areas should start rolling over pretty soon.
[Reply]
Donger 09:02 AM 07-09-2020
https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safet...izers-methanol

Updated list of hand sanitizers containing wood alcohol/methanol.
[Reply]
stumppy 09:14 AM 07-09-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Once the deaths hit a peak and begin dropping it means herd immunity is building. Sweden is all set now as their deaths are now near 0 daily.

Traditionally, coronaviruses hit saturation at about 25% and then stop.
:-)
[Reply]
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