Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by TLO:
So if I'm understanding you correctly, there are more people that get the flu as opposed to people that get covid (at this point anyway) so the percentages are inaccurate?
The study did not consider that question. It only compared the age distribution and comorbidities between people hospitalized with the flu and covid [Reply]
Originally Posted by cdcox:
The study did not consider that question. It only compared the age distribution and comorbidities between people hospitalized with the flu and covid
And for ages under 35, the percentages seem to look higher for the flu according to the chart I mentioned.
I'm not trying to be dense. I just don't understand. I'm 99.9% you are right, I'm just not understanding why the percentages are higher on that chart for flu vs covid. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
And for ages under 35, the percentages seem to look higher for the flu according to the chart I mentioned.
I'm not trying to be dense. I just don't understand. I'm 99.9% you are right, I'm just not understanding why the percentages are higher on that chart for flu vs covid.
I am not sure what you are looking at but by in large the flu is more deadly for people under 35 than Covid is at this point. Influenza kills people across the age spectrum from children to elderly. Covid seems to be more at the elderly end with few in the younger side of the spectrum. [Reply]
Not sure how true but makes for a good read anyway..
OPIED FROM AN OSHA CERTIFIED GENTLEMAN:
For all you mask wearers (especially those of you who think wearing it outside is NOT stupid ����*♀️). I know I’m about to burst your “google doctor degree” bubble, but here goes nothing.
So Masks?
I am OSHA 10&30 certified. I know some of you are too. I don’t really know WHY OSHA hasn’t come forward and stopped the nonsense BUT I want to cover 3 things
• N95 masks and masks with exhale ports
• surgical masks
• filter or cloth masks
Okay, so upon further inspection, OSHA says some masks are okay and not okay in certain situations.
If you’re working with fumes and aerosol chemicals and you give your employees the wrong masks and they get sick, you can be sued.
• N95 masks: are designed for CONTAMINATED environments. That means when you exhale through N95 the design is that you are exhaling into contamination. The exhale from N95 masks are vented to breath straight out without filtration. They don’t filter the air on the way out. They don’t need to.
Conclusion: if you’re in Target and the guy with Covid has a N95 mask, his covid breath is unfiltered being exhaled into Target (because it was designed for already contaminated environments, it’s not filtering your air on the way out).
• Surgical Mask: these masks were designed and approved for STERILE environments. The amount of particles and contaminants in the outside and indoor environments where people are CLOGGING these masks very, VERY quickly. The moisture from your breath combined with the clogged mask will render it “useless” IF you come in contact with Covid and your mask traps it, YOU become a walking virus dispenser. Everytime you put your mask on you are breathing the germs from EVERYWHERE you went. They should be changed or thrown out every “20-30 minutes in a non sterile environment.”
• Cloth masks: I can’t even believe I’m having to explain this, but here it goes. Today, three people pointed to their masks as they walked by me entering Lowe’s. They said “ya gotta wear your mask BRO” I said very clearly “those masks don’t work bro, in fact they MAKE you sicker” they “pshh’d” me. By now hopefully you all know CLOTH masks do not filter anything. You mean the American flag one my aunt made? Yes. The one with sunflowers that looks so cute? Yes. The bandanna, the cut up t-shirt, the scarf ALL of them offer NO FILTERING whatsoever. As you exhale, you are ridding your lungs of contaminants and carbon dioxide. Cloth masks trap this carbon dioxide the best. It actually risks your health, rather than protect it. The moisture caught in these masks can become mildew ridden over night. Dry coughing, enhanced allergies, sore throat are all symptoms of a micro-mold in your mask.
-Ultimate Answer:
*N95 blows the virus into the air from a contaminated person.
*The surgical mask is not designed for the outside world and will not filter the virus upon inhaling through it. It’s filtration works on the exhale, (Like a vacuum bag, it only works one way) but likely stops after 20 minutes, rendering it useless outside of a STERILE ENVIRONMENT (correct Becky, they don’t work in a bar, not even a little bit).
*Cloth masks are WORSE than none. It’s equivalent to using a chain link fence to stop mosquitos.
The CDC wants us to keep wearing masks. The masks don’t work. They’re being used to provide false comfort and push forward a specific agenda. For the love of God, research each mask’s designed use and purpose, I bet you will find NONE are used in the way of “viral defense.”
Just like EVERY Flu season kids, wash your hands. Sanitize your hands. Don’t touch stuff. Sanitize your phone. Don’t touch people. And keep your distance. Why? Because your breath stinks, your deodorant is failing, your shoes are old and stink, that shirts not clean, & I like my space. Trust me I can hear you from here. Lots of reasons to keep your distance and work on body hygiene. But trust me, the masks do not work.
*Occupational Safety & Hazard Association sited.
The top American organization for safety.
They regulate and educate asbestos workers, surgical rooms, you name it.
I know, facts suck. They throw a wrench into the perfectly (seeming) packaged pill you are willingly swallowing. Facts make you have to form your OWN OPINION, instead of regurgitating someone else’s, and I know how uncomfortable that makes a lot of you. If your mask gives you security, by all means wear it. Just know it is a false sense of security and you shouldn’t shame anyone into partaking in such “conspiracies.”
If select politicians stopped enforcing it, no one would continue this nonsense....
P.S. I am also OSHA 10,30 certified and have my MSHA. I also currently work at a mine where we do training on this subject regularly. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Worldometers might provide a pleasant surprise of sorts today. Right now it looks like we will come in under the 871 new deaths we saw Tuesday of last week so that's good news. Also it looks like we might drop back under the 40k new cases number for the first time in 5 days.
639 with the majority of states reporting. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
639 with the majority of states reporting.
Yeah I think we are going to stay under the 871 but might not stay under 40k cases.
There is going to have to be some sort of break down on how much the increase in cases is due to an increase in testing vs. people who are actually sick and know it.
AZ is in a rough spot right now but CA is actually piling up cases like crazy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Yeah I think we are going to stay under the 871 but might not stay under 40k cases.
There is going to have to be some sort of break down on how much the increase in cases is due to an increase in testing vs. people who are actually sick and know it.
AZ is in a rough spot right now but CA is actually piling up cases like crazy.
Originally Posted by TLO:
And if not - check out appendix table 1 in that study. Yes I'm a moron, so I appreciate the breakdown.
That table lists the characteristics of hospitalizations in terms of age - not the percentage of people in each age group who were hospitalized. That alone can't tell you whether you're "more likely" to be hospitalized from COVID or flu since it doesn't show how many hospitalizations there were in the first place.
In an extreme (and made up example), imagine that there were 100 flu hospitalizations and 100 million COVID hospitalizations. The percentage of flu hospitalizations who are under 35 could be 90%, and the percentage of COVID hospitalizations who are under 35 could be 10%, but you're still far, far more likely to have been hospitalized due to COVID in that scenario.
To try and get at what you're looking for, though, this article says that the 2019-2020 flu season had around 410k hospitalizations, and they apparently consider the season to be about 30 weeks long. That's roughly 14k hospitalizations a week, and among those the table in the article says that around 12.2% of them would be under 35, so somewhere in the ballpark of 1,700 people per week were hospitalized with the flu.
It's REALLY tough to get a comparative stat on COVID hospitalizations, but this page from the CDC says 98.4 per 100k people is the current rate overall, which works out to around 325k hospitalizations since March 1. That's around 20k per week. And your article says 7.5% of those are under 35, which works out to around 1,500 per week.
So my basic, probably error-filled, back of the napkin calculations says that you're slightly more likely to be hospitalized with the flu than you are with COVID. But as I've said many times in this thread, idiots with calculators on the internet don't have a clue what they're doing with this most of the time, and right now I'm just being an idiot with a calculator on the internet. The answer to your question is "no, the data doesn't show that," and to be safe, that's really the only solid conclusion you should draw from this. [Reply]
