Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by O.city:
With the findings that mild and asymptomatic infections don’t always show antibody seroconversion, I think there’s some things to the fact that serology studies miss a lot. It’s possible New York and Chicago are already at or close to immunity. When you look at places like Italy and others that were hit hard, the curve down is just to damn similar to be a coincidence in my mind.
The argument against is always the deaths, but I think we’re finding that a lot of that is due to poor planning ie sending people back to nursing homes and age stratification etc.
New York also had issues in the hospitals of incubating early and not having the experience we have today on how to treat this. Same with Lombardy.
There are places around Bergamo that had 50+% seroprevalence. It's hard to reconcile that fact with the claim that a lack of antibody seroconversion confers protection needed for herd immunity. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
There are places around Bergamo that had 50+% seroprevalence. It's hard to reconcile that fact with the claim that a lack of antibody seroconversion confers protection needed for herd immunity.
The findings that mild and asymptomatic infections don’t always seroconvert though shows there’s something else going on.
As has always been the case, were just in the infancy of finding things out about this thing.
For instance in Stockholm the number of those with positive antibody tests is lower and yet the curve has trending down in similar fashion to other hard hit areas. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
The findings that mild and asymptomatic infections don’t always seroconvert though shows there’s something else going on.
As has always been the case, were just in the infancy of finding things out about this thing.
If you don't have enough of a vaccine to stimulate an immune response, you don't have a vaccine that is adequate to confer protection. I would be extremely cautious in extrapolating that cases that don't lead to antibody production lead to any kind of protective immunity. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
There are places around Bergamo that had 50+% seroprevalence. It's hard to reconcile that fact with the claim that a lack of antibody seroconversion confers protection needed for herd immunity.
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
If you don't have enough of a vaccine to stimulate an immune response, you don't have a vaccine that is adequate to confer protection. I would be extremely cautious in extrapolating that cases that don't lead to antibody production lead to any kind of protective immunity.
Immune response doesn’t always have to be adaptive though. It’s been a while since immunology but even if you clear something with a humors response you’re gonna have antigen recognition and be able to fight it later iirc.
We’re 6 months in, I think we’d know by now if immunity wanes that quickly if you just have a mild or asymptomatic case, they’d have been reinfected right? [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Immune response doesn’t always have to be adaptive though. It’s been a while since immunology but even if you clear something with a humors response you’re gonna have antigen recognition and be able to fight it later iirc.
We’re 6 months in, I think we’d know by now if immunity wanes that quickly if you just have a mild or asymptomatic case, they’d have been reinfected right?
You're right. For the sake of clarity, antibody-mediated responses are humoral. Cell-mediated are not.
Originally Posted by O.city:
Mortality in hospitals has dropped significantly as well so as long as we can keep them from overrunning we’re gonna hopefully be fine there
This is one thing that seems to be positive. I realize deaths lag but it seems like the death rate of hospitalized cases has dropped. Thats not the CFR but that is interesting. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
This is one thing that seems to be positive. I realize deaths lag but it seems like the death rate of hospitalized cases has dropped. Thats not the CFR but that is interesting.
The new spikes in the south and southwest are different in that it’s a different age range.
We’ll see how that works out. If deaths stay down and people recover fine we’ll get thru it
Couple things I’m curious about in regards to hospitalizations as well. Everyone going in for anything gets tested now. So if I’m in for an appendix problem and i test positive I’m now a Covid pt even if I’m Asymptomatic for it.
