Rule: You can change your answer up until next Thursday!
This might be the toughest year yet for this. I can see so many different possibilities, especially considering that I think there's a solid chance the Chiefs trade up.
Edit: It's draft day and I'm changing my pick!
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
There's way too much smoke about the Chiefs trading up and/or them targeting a LT. I'm going with a guy that I think could make it into our range, who also has the kind of upside that would have Veach itching to make a move to go get him. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yeah, the 5th year option has gotten a LOT more expensive with the new CBA. I think it depends on Pro Bowls; 1 will get you a big number (transition tag, IIRC) and 2 will get you the Franchise number.
If you haven't made a Pro Bowl though, the number is big not not terrifying. McDuffie, for instance, has a ton on the line the next couple years on the 5th year figure. He got boned and didn't get a Pro Bowl nod (even though he made All Pro). So as it stands his option would be in the 13-14 million range. If he gets one, he'll be at like $20 million and if he gets 2 he'd be near $22 million in all likelihood.
In either event, the odds of a rookie OT making any pro bowls in his first 4 seasons are pretty remote. And 2 of them damn near zero because of the intertia of Pro Bowl voting.
And at WR it's just not happening. The WR pool in the AFC is WAY too deep. So you're probably looking at around $15 million for a WR though that will go up as salaries do.
Ideally..you don't have to worry about the 5th year option as you're gonna just sign them to a deal anyway.
McDuffie will get extended after this year I'd guess if all goes accordingly. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yeah - it's hard to disagree with him.
Historically it does look like late 1st, early 2nd is about as late as you can get without looking at real outliers. By 45, you're looking at swing guys and maybe some eventually average starters.
Which would be fine, but even that is probably 2 seasons down the road. And at that point, what's the difference between someone you're likely to see at 64 and, say, Wanya Morris?
Which is why I'm still leaning Jordan Morgan in the 1st and 'Tez Walker in the 2nd. If you're strictly looking to game the draft to fill as many holes as possible with contributing depth, OT in the 1st and WR in the 2nd is pretty clearly the best way to do it.
I’m not a fan of Morgan but we have the same idea. Guyton, Mims, Kingsley, Morgan, Paul whoever they prefer + Legette or Walker in rd 2 would be perfect IMO.
I think Legette and Tez have just as much potential for the Chiefs as Mitchell, Worthy, Franklin and McConkey. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Ideally..you don't have to worry about the 5th year option as you're gonna just sign them to a deal anyway.
McDuffie will get extended after this year I'd guess if all goes accordingly.
Of course.
It's just leverage in contract talks. But with someone like McDuffie, it probably doesn't matter much. At 'very good' it's relevant. At elite, it really isn't. You come correct looking to re-set the market or the guy gets traded. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
I’m not a fan of Morgan but we have the same idea. Guyton, Mims, Kingsley, Morgan, Paul whoever they prefer + Legette or Walker in rd 2 would be perfect IMO.
I think Legette and Tez have just as much potential for the Chiefs as Mitchell, Worthy, Franklin and McConkey.
I think it was Duncan that pointed out that Morgan measures almost identically to Slater. With that in mind, I'm not sure how anyone could still be down on him. He's incredibly athletic and a very very smart player. I think he would be a turnkey option at LT. Maybe not a premier player in his first year or two, but better than Morris and likely better than what we got on balance last season.
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I think it was Duncan that pointed out that Morgan measures almost identically to Slater. With that in mind, I'm not sure how anyone could still be down on him. He's incredibly athletic and a very very smart player. I think he would be a turnkey option at LT. Maybe not a premier player in his first year or two, but better than Morris and likely better than what we got on balance last season.
His floor is just so high.
This is the thing with him for me, he may not ever be Trent Williams, but if he's Slater?
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yeah, the 5th year option has gotten a LOT more expensive with the new CBA. I think it depends on Pro Bowls; 1 will get you a big number (transition tag, IIRC) and 2 will get you the Franchise number.
If you haven't made a Pro Bowl though, the number is big not not terrifying. McDuffie, for instance, has a ton on the line the next couple years on the 5th year figure. He got boned and didn't get a Pro Bowl nod (even though he made All Pro). So as it stands his option would be in the 13-14 million range. If he gets one, he'll be at like $20 million and if he gets 2 he'd be near $22 million in all likelihood.
In either event, the odds of a rookie OT making any pro bowls in his first 4 seasons are pretty remote. And 2 of them damn near zero because of the intertia of Pro Bowl voting.
And at WR it's just not happening. The WR pool in the AFC is WAY too deep. So you're probably looking at around $15 million for a WR though that will go up as salaries do.
$20 million or $15 million its still something to be considered these days where in the past, it wasn't a big consideration. I'd bet money every team is considering it as part of any deal that takes you out of the 1st round. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I think it was Duncan that pointed out that Morgan measures almost identically to Slater. With that in mind, I'm not sure how anyone could still be down on him. He's incredibly athletic and a very very smart player. I think he would be a turnkey option at LT. Maybe not a premier player in his first year or two, but better than Morris and likely better than what we got on balance last season.
His floor is just so high.
I love Slater, so I'd take that in a heartbeat. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
This is the thing with him for me, he may not ever be Trent Williams, but if he's Slater?
Yeah, you take that to the bank.
It's a very 'Karlaftis' pick.
And Karlaftis may have more ceiling than we gave him credit for.
Very safe, solid football player who contributed immediately. Isn't going to be Parsons, but he's going to play good football for a decade.
At the back of the first you take that every single time. And I think people are shying away from Morgan in favor of guys like Mims or Guyton because they do appear to have higher ceilings. But what are their odds of hitting them?
I'll again dust off my hockey prospect scale where you go with a number grade (peak) and a letter grade (odds of hitting said peak).
Oh sure, maybe Guyton is a 9.0(D) but if Morgan is an 8.0(B) isn't that a guy you'd rather have? [Reply]
CB is a dark horse pick for us imo. Conventional wisdom suggests either WR or OL, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Veach went BPA and took a corner knowing how deep this draft is with wideouts and linemen. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 493rd:
CB is a dark horse pick for us imo. Conventional wisdom suggests either WR or OL, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Veach went BPA and took a corner knowing how deep this draft is with wideouts and linemen.
If he goes BPA, it won't be a corner. The top 3 guys will likely be well gone and there's quite a drop to Kool-Aid at 4. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
It's a very 'Karlaftis' pick.
And Karlaftis may have more ceiling than we gave him credit for.
Very safe, solid football player who contributed immediately. Isn't going to be Parsons, but he's going to play good football for a decade.
At the back of the first you take that every single time. And I think people are shying away from Morgan in favor of guys like Mims or Guyton because they do appear to have higher ceilings. But what are their odds of hitting them?
I'll again dust off my hockey prospect scale where you go with a number grade (peak) and a letter grade (odds of hitting said peak).
Oh sure, maybe Guyton is a 9.0(D) but if Morgan is an 8.0(B) isn't that a guy you'd rather have?
Yeah, that's kinda my view.
I've changed my thoughts on that alot. I used to think you needed the high end blue chippers, and while you'd always like to have them, just get good players.
With the Qb and coaching staff/organization we have right now, you want as many Nick Boltons as you can get. If Morgan is that at LT...well......hell that seems good enough for me. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ModSocks:
Feels like all signs point to a trade down. The cost to trade up for a LT will likely be too much, and i can't imagine they'd trade up for a WR.
And the WR's that will be available at 32 likely won't be all that different from the next grouping of WR's that are expected to go in the 2nd.