Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Did you go get tested today?
No, I called and cancelled my appointment. After getting the false alarm message from work, I didn't feel like it was appropriate to go. Hopefully my spot went to someone who actually needed it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
No, I called and cancelled my appointment. After getting the false alarm message from work, I didn't feel like it was appropriate to go. Hopefully my spot went to someone who actually needed it.
I hopefully get my work paying for my antibody test. How weird would it be for me to have a positive test and then have nothing show up on antibody testing. If it can happen, it will be me! [Reply]
Welp it’s been in the US since December at least, I know this says otherwise.
But the more we learn, the more I’m inclined to say it was here late last year spreading.
The question that will always be posed is why didn't we see the "explosion" of this until March?
I agree, I think it was here as soon as November if not October but whatever. It calls into questioning the testing. I don't mean that as conspiratorial but simply we weren't looking for Covid back then. Of course now if you get ran over by a drunk driver, who was texting and and a heart attack behind the wheel you died from Covid. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
The question that will always be posed is why didn't we see the "explosion" of this until March?
I agree, I think it was here as soon as November if not October but whatever. It calls into questioning the testing. I don't mean that as conspiratorial but simply we weren't looking for Covid back then. Of course now if you get ran over by a drunk driver, who was texting and and a heart attack behind the wheel you died from Covid.
Two reasons
1) R0 is an average not an absolute
2) Exponential growth
Hypothetically a few people expatriate from Wuhan who were asymptomatic or have mild illness and decent hygiene. Is the disease over here? Yes. But if they are more socially isolated while over here, or just by random chance they may not pass the disease to anyone, or one person who doesn't pass it on to anyone else, so the disease dies out.
Also, it takes a while for an infected population to reach a critical mass where you are going to find large and sudden increases in caseload.
If I assume a 30% day over day growth in cases, how long does it take me to get over 1000 cases?
Originally Posted by petegz28:
The question that will always be posed is why didn't we see the "explosion" of this until March?
I agree, I think it was here as soon as November if not October but whatever. It calls into questioning the testing. I don't mean that as conspiratorial but simply we weren't looking for Covid back then. Of course now if you get ran over by a drunk driver, who was texting and and a heart attack behind the wheel you died from Covid.
Well if this was here in October, we seemingly missed cases or people dying from COVID-19 since our counters started in March. Guess the "over-stated" COVID death count you keep mentioning might just even out then. What do you say, Pete? [Reply]
Another limitation with the case fatality rate is that some people who are counted as confirmed cases may eventually die from the disease, which would lead to an increase in the death rate. For example, South Korea initially reported a case fatality rate of 0.6% in early March, but it later rose to 1.7% by the beginning of April, according to New Scientist.
Yes. A big issue with this is that the layperson thinks a snapshot is definitive. That's why I mentioned on here sometime back that 100% of current smokers have not yet died of lung cancer. Given what we've seen from some of the better-designed antibody studies and analyses of population level mortality, I would venture a guess that the IFR is probably a tick under 1% if you have adequate hospital capacity. However, given the R0 is also much higher than the flu, then absent mitigation strategies, you are looking at dozens and dozens of deaths more than a regular flu season, which is why we did what we did.
France, for example, reduced their R0 by 77%, from 2.9 to 0.67. [Reply]
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Well if this was here in October, we seemingly missed cases or people dying from COVID-19 since our counters started in March. Guess the "over-stated" COVID death count you keep mentioning might just even out then. What do you say, Pete?
I say go back to the gym and stop purposely being a douche. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Yes. A big issue with this is that the layperson thinks a snapshot is definitive. That's why I mentioned on here sometime back that 100% of current smokers have not yet died of lung cancer. Given what we've seen from some of the better-designed antibody studies and analyses of population level mortality, I would venture a guess that the IFR is probably a tick under 1% if you have adequate hospital capacity. However, given the R0 is also much higher than the flu, then absent mitigation strategies, you are looking at dozens and dozens of deaths more than a regular flu season, which is why we did what we did.
France, for example, reduced their R0 by 77%, from 2.9 to 0.67.
Thank you. Holding this fucker under 1% would be great. [Reply]
I kind of want to have the anti body test taken. I had all the symptoms and went to the dr because I was coughing a lot, had serious trouble breathing at night, woke up with crazy chills. It was a sickness I’d never felt and the shortness of breath lasted days. I went to the dr and while I was in the waiting room I read up on covid symptoms because it had been in the news a lot, but not here yet and I was like holy shit I have it. Went in for my appointment failed the flu test and they just prescribed me an inhaler(because when I was a child I had asthma) and told me to take Tylenol/ibuprofen and call them back if it gets worse. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RustShack:
I kind of want to have the anti body test taken. I had all the symptoms and went to the dr because I was coughing a lot, had serious trouble breathing at night, woke up with crazy chills. It was a sickness I’d never felt and the shortness of breath lasted days. I went to the dr and while I was in the waiting room I read up on covid symptoms because it had been in the news a lot, but not here yet and I was like holy shit I have it. Went in for my appointment failed the flu test and they just prescribed me an inhaler(because when I was a child I had asthma) and told me to take Tylenol/ibuprofen and call them back if it gets worse.