I was reading alot more into this the other night. The argument with trading down lies with the AV model and suggests teams trade down no more than 5 picks and not to trade up. It's kind of interesting, to be honest.

My memory seems to indicate the opposite, but I suppose over all trades in all rounds over 20, 30, 40 years, the AV argument holds. Obviously, more darts = more bullseyes.

It seems like every time a team trades down, especially early, they come out the losers much more often than not.
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I traded up to 18 because Paye was still there.
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My latest, from PFN. I really like this:

36. (Trade down for 36 and 83) Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami.

This assumes I like his medical report. Taking a risk but it just fills what they need right away so we’ll. If his medicals are still worrisome, Ronnie Perkins slides in here.

63. Brevin Jordan, Te, Miami. The Chiefs 12 personnel gets an immediate upgrade here and also gets ramped up in usage in 21 as a result.

83. James Hudson, T, Cincinnati. I start planning for a post-Eric Fisher world and get a high-upside T who may also be able to sub for Eric Fisher from Day 1. I don’t love the idea of moving guys around, but if Fisher comes back strong, Hudson could slide in to LG and upgrade that spot while waiting to take over T full time in 22.

98. (Trade back 2 spots for 98 and 133). Tyree Gillespie, S, Missouri. I know, I know. Homer pick. But seeing someone I respect like Brett Kollman gush over him re-affirmed my belief he can be a real NFL star. Gillespie is a strong open field tackler who also has good tape against TEs (held Kyle Pitts to one catch for six yards). He gives KC a lot more juice, speed, and coverage ability in Sorenson’s role.

133. Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas. This is a versatile CB who fits KC’s outside corner profile.

144. Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State. I wait to take my X of the future and get a high-upside guy. Stock is down after a rough 2021 (bad situation) but his size/speed profile is DK Metcalf-lite. He may not start right away, but that’s OK getting him this late. Has the potential to become an elite threat in Years 2+.

256. Kayode Awosika, OL, Buffalo. Just a late-round flyer, but this small-school product has some real physical skill and was a nasty run blocker at T in college. Could be interesting if you put him inside.

All-in-all, I would be excited about this haul. Nice blend of “now” contributors at key spots (DE, S), high upside for the future (WR, OT) and an upgrade at a key supporting position (TE).

In FA, I’d need to handle C (either by retaining Reiter or signing another FA), supplement LB (likely with a SLB bandaid) and WR (someone I can plug at the X for a year while I see how Terry develops) but those are do-able. With Hudson, I likely also want a swing tackle I can roll with in case he isn’t ready to handle LT.
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With you on Terry. I like him as a guy to target later in the draft. Does more for me than Dyami who people are pushing as high as round 2.
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I absolutely LOVE Terry on day 3.

Like Robinson and other FSU prospects, he’s been the victim of playing on a really bad and borderline dysfunctional team.
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Trade downs!!

51. Daviyon Nixon
63. Josh Myers
74. D'ante Smith
94. Kenny Yeboah
136. Rodarius Williams
144. Sage Surratt
164. Janarius Robinson
176. Josh Imatorbhebhe
180. Israel Mukuamu
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Give me Terry and Darden if we go OL or DL early.


Then KC has Tyreek Hill, Terry, Darden, and Mecole plus Kelce.

That's enough to mess people up real bad.
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Yea I’d love to double down if we don’t get a WR early.

If we’re going to wait till day 3 on a WR, it would be smart to hedge our bets with an X and a slot guy, and if we hit on both, ohhhh boy.
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SDSU's Cade Johnson also would fit for the slot.

I think he's less explosive but a lot more polished and dangerous as a slot guy than Darden.
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Yea I’ve mentioned Cade Johnson as well before. Along with Darden, Shi Smith, and Marlon Williams (big slot), I think that’s a very good group in the middle rounds.
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This isn’t Chiefs related but I’m doing another mock draft and the Jets gave up the following to go from 2 to 1 for Lawrence.

#2, #23, #34, a 2022 1st and a 2022 2nd.
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It's worth it to get a franchise QB.

But I think the Jets may have a chance to get the better player at 2.
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FWIW....Chris Simms has released his QB list and he has Zach Wilson at #1 and Lawrence at #2.
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And Simms has been pretty much on the money lately.

He had Allen and Lamar as the two best coming out in 2019, and he had Burrow and Herbert last year.

I don’t think it’s crazy at all to prefer Wilson. Lawrence is a great prospect with a very high floor, but he’s a bit overrated in terms of the hype.
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For me it's

Zach Wilson
Trevor Lawrence
Trey Lance

That's it for the 1st round.
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