https://theathletic.com/2537783/2021...d-five-whiffs/
Chiefs’ gambles in 2017 draft resulted in one grand slam (Patrick Mahomes) and five whiffs
by
Nate Taylor
Originally Posted by :
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Inside the Chiefs’ draft room in 2017, every prominent member of the organization — team owner Clark Hunt, general manager John Dorsey, coach Andy Reid, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy and co-director of player personnel Brett Veach — clapped their hands together in applause. The men in that room had accomplished perhaps the boldest trade in Chiefs history to make the franchise’s greatest draft selection.
For the first time, Patrick Mahomes, the star quarterback from Texas Tech, put on a Chiefs hat. Just seconds earlier, the Chiefs had selected Mahomes with the 10th overall pick. Hunt was the first person to chat with Mahomes on the phone. Reid, wearing a red and white Hawaiian shirt, smiled. Dorsey and Veach hugged.
“I told you you were going to get this call,” Nagy told Mahomes. “We’re fired up, man.”
The Chiefs’ 2017 draft class will always be remembered most for the team’s pursuit of Mahomes, culminating in the execution of a blockbuster trade to acquire its franchise-altering superstar quarterback.
The men in the Chiefs’ second-floor draft room that year, though, still had more work to do. After the first round, the Chiefs selected five more prospects in their draft class: defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon, running back Kareem Hunt, receiver Jehu Chesson, linebacker Ukeme Eligwe and safety Leon McQuay.
“The teams I worked with, your goal was to get three to four starters out of every draft,” said Daniel Jeremiah, the NFL Network’s draft analyst who was a former scout for the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens. “So if you look back three years after the fact, those guys need to be starting players.”
Four years after the 2017 draft, the Chiefs have only one player from their class who is still on their roster: Mahomes.
Most NFL executives and analysts will acknowledge that the draft presents inherent risk for all 32 teams, no matter where a prospect is selected in the seven-round event. The theme throughout the Chiefs’ draft selections in 2017 was as high-risk, high-reward as any approach in the franchise’s history.
The reward of selecting Mahomes — via a trade that was considered risky for the Chiefs at the time by sending the 27th overall pick, a third-round pick and their 2018 first-round pick to the Buffalo Bills — has been bountiful. Since Mahomes became the Chiefs’ leading man in 2018, the team has hosted the AFC Championship Game the past three seasons, has made consecutive Super Bowl appearances the past two years and became champions in 2019 after its comeback victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. Mahomes also won the league’s MVP award in 2018, was the Super Bowl MVP in 2019 and has been a three-time Pro Bowler.
But when Mahomes was drafted, most analysts were unsure how successful he would be despite his rare arm strength, accuracy and ability to improvise on broken plays. Analysts were concerned that Mahomes, known for being a gunslinger, might be erratic with his decisions as a passer. At times at Texas Tech, Mahomes attempted passes with poor footwork and had a willingness to throw the ball into tight coverages.
“What I remember more than anything else is, ‘Dang, I was way off and way too low on Mahomes,’” Jeremiah said. “That was my biggest takeaway. I’d like to have that do-over on that one.”
Mahomes, of course, landed in perhaps the best situation for him. He spent his rookie season learning the Chiefs’ offense from Reid, Nagy and former quarterback Alex Smith. When Mahomes became the starter, he was surrounded by talented skill position players, such as receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.
Entering the 2017 draft, the Chiefs were coming off a 12-4 record in the previous season. But the Chiefs fell in the divisional round of the playoffs to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who won despite settling for six field goals. The Chiefs knew they were contenders, but they also realized they needed to gamble more than usual to acquire top-tier talent when preparing for that year’s draft.
“They saw 2016 as, ‘Look, everything went right and we’re still so limited that we can’t win in the playoffs,’” said Eric Eager, the vice president of research and development at Pro Football Focus. “They said, ‘We’re going to take a lot of longshot bets, knowing that if none of them hit, we’re still probably good enough to make the playoffs and be exactly where we are.’
“I think of Alex Smith extremely fondly because when your quarterback is Brady Quinn, you have no clue how good your receivers are that you gain no information about your team. But Alex was good enough (for the team) to gain all the information and find out exactly how far away (they) are. That was his purpose. That is underrated in Chiefs history.”
In the second round, the Chiefs used the 59th pick to select Kpassagnon, a developmental edge rusher who became the first Villanova defensive player drafted since Howie Long, a Hall of Famer, in 1981. Kpassagnon impressed scouts and analysts at the Senior Bowl, performing well against some of the best offensive linemen in the class. At 6-foot-7 and 289 pounds, Kpassagnon used his length, long strides and tenacity to be productive in college.
Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s NFL Draft analyst, ranked Kpassagnon as the 13th-best edge rusher, giving him a third-round projection. But the Chiefs were comfortable reaching for Kpassagnon in the second round because they believed he was capable of making large improvements in his NFL career. Louis Riddick, an analyst for ESPN and a former NFL defensive back, felt the Chiefs made a good pick because of Kpassagnon’s size and athleticism.
“He’s only played three years of high school football, and to see his development every year, he made a steady, steady, steady incline,” Dorsey said then. “I like that, especially because he’s a (Division) I‐AA guy, I believe an All‐American. I fight for those I‐AA All‐Americans. I was one myself. I really think the upside for him is excellent.”
The problem for Kpassagnon was that he started his career as an outside linebacker in the Chiefs’ 3-4 defense under former defensive coordinator Bob Sutton. Kpassagnon played just 10 percent of the team’s defensive snaps in 2018, but he returned to his natural defensive end position when the Chiefs switched to a 4-3 defense led by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The best stretch of Kpassagnon’s career occurred in 2019, when he collected two sacks during the Chiefs’ postseason run.
One reason Kpassagnon hasn’t become a star is because he has yet to develop a signature pass-rushing move. In 16 games last season, Kpassagnon recorded only one sack and just four quarterback hits.
A year after selecting Kpassagnon in the second round, the Chiefs made a similar pick. Veach, in his first draft as the Chiefs’ general manager, consummated a trade with the Cincinnati Bengals to move the team up eight spots in the second round to select defensive end Breeland Speaks with the 46th pick.
When Kpassagnon and Speaks didn’t provide consistent production in 2018, Eager said the Chiefs missing on both picks was part of the reason Veach executed a trade with the Seattle Seahawks just two days before the start of the 2019 draft. The Chiefs traded the 29th overall pick, a 2020 second-round pick and an exchange of third-round picks that year to acquire star defensive end Frank Clark. When Clark arrived in Kansas City, he signed a five-year, $105.5 million contract with $63.5 million guaranteed.
“The Seahawks picked (defensive end) L.J. Collier with that (29th) pick, who sucks,” Eager said. “I can see the Chiefs saying ‘We need an actual edge player, and we’re not going to get it unless we trade for Frank Clark.’ Ultimately, I think it’s a mistake, even though in the 2019 playoffs Frank probably earned his whole contract.”
In free agency last month, Kpassagnon signed a two-year contract, with $2 million guaranteed, with the New Orleans Saints.
The Chiefs’ second-best selection in 2017 was also produced via a trade. Dorsey sent the Chiefs’ third-round compensatory pick (104th), their fourth-round pick (132nd) and their seventh-round pick (245th overall) to the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for the 86th pick to select Hunt.
“I was sitting there, and I said, ‘We have to go up there and get this running back or else we are going to miss out,’” Dorsey said then of Hunt. “Take out the top-tier running backs and this was the next best guy on everyone’s list. So we had to go do it.”
At the time, Riddick compared Hunt to Emmitt Smith, a Hall of Famer who won three championships with the Dallas Cowboys and becomes the NFL’s all-time leading rusher.
Brugler ranked Hunt as the eighth-best running back in the draft class. Although Hunt didn’t have breakaway speed, he was known for his quick feet, his balance after contact and his effectiveness as a receiver.
“Aside from Mahomes, Hunt was the only pick I agreed with in that draft for Kansas City,” Brugler said. “The others were really confusing.”
As a rookie, Hunt scored 11 total touchdowns and led the league in rushing with 1,327 yards. Playing alongside Mahomes in 2018, Hunt was an even better performer in his second season, scoring 14 total touchdowns and recording 1,202 all-purpose yards in 11 games.
“The Kareem Hunt situation,” Jeremiah said, “that was unique.”
Some executives and scouts, however, were somewhat leery of potential off-the-field issues concerning Hunt.
On Nov. 30, 2018, the Chiefs released Hunt just hours after TMZ Sports posted a video that showed him shoving and kicking a woman in the hallway of a downtown Cleveland hotel. The altercation occurred the morning of Feb. 10. The police were reportedly called after the incident, but there were no arrests made and no charges against Hunt were filed. Despite two police reports saying otherwise, Hunt had assaulted the woman — and he had lied about it to the Chiefs.
Through a statement, the Chiefs said Hunt was “not truthful” to his employer. If Hunt had told the truth in February 2018 and the months that followed, the Chiefs, according to team sources then, would have pursued every option available to them through the NFL to allow him to remain on their roster. Instead, he was cut in the middle of what the Chiefs hoped would be a Super Bowl run.
“The Chiefs have more of a risk tolerance for some players, which is generally good,” Eager said. “These prospects are people. They become adults and, in a good environment, they end up being quality players. Reid is very confident in his ability to coach up people.”
Veach acquired the Chiefs’ long-term replacement for Hunt in running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who the team selected with the 32nd overall pick in last year’s draft.
But when assessing Hunt’s tenure with the Chiefs, one question will always remain with Chiefs fans: How would the team’s future be different, perhaps for the better, if that incident didn’t occur and he remained on the roster?
“I think Hunt gets a veteran contract,” Eager said of such a scenario. “In 2018, do they win the Super Bowl? They might. He is one of the few running backs that I think is legitimately a difference-maker. If Hunt stays out of trouble, he’s probably making $12.5 million a year, much like Derrick Henry is.
“So what happens in this past draft? They probably take a different player than Clyde. It might’ve been a receiver, like a Tee Higgins. They might’ve even taken a tackle there.”
Hunt was given a chance to continue his career, through Dorsey, on Feb. 4, 2019, the day after Super Bowl LIII. Hunt returned to his hometown of Cleveland and signed a one-year contract with the Browns, who were led by Dorsey as their new general manager. Since then, Hunt in 24 games has recorded 1,609 all-purpose yards and 14 touchdowns.
“He’s a really talented player who’s playing really well for the Browns,” Jeremiah said. “After that, now you’re talking about picks 139 and beyond. That’s a crapshoot.”
The Chiefs continued to be aggressive in the fourth round of the 2017 draft. Dorsey traded the team’s two fifth-round picks (170th and 180th) to the Vikings for the 139th pick to select Chesson.
At Michigan, Chesson was a quality receiver who was known for making difficult receptions. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 204 pounds, Chesson struggled in his college career to create separation when running deep routes. His production dipped as a senior after he tore the posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in the final game of his junior season in January 2016.
Brugler ranked Chesson as the 41st-best receiver, a prospect who was projected to not be selected in the draft, instead graded as a priority free agent. In his one season with the Chiefs, Chesson recorded just two receptions for 18 yards. One reason the Chiefs released Chesson after training camp in 2018 was because he couldn’t beat out Demarcus Robinson and Marcus Kemp for a roster spot. Veach also used free agency that year to sign receiver Sammy Watkins to a three-year, $48 million contract to give Mahomes a third legitimate pass-catcher.
The Chiefs used another trade to get back into the fifth round of the 2017 draft. Dorsey traded tight end James O’Shaughnessy and a sixth-round pick (216th) to the New England Patriots in exchange for the 183rd pick to select Eligwe, a linebacker who spent his final two college seasons at Georgia Southern. In 2014, Eligwe had been dismissed from Florida State for violating team rules.
“I think he has learned from it, and that’s something, when you go meet a school, you dig on that,” area scout Ryne Nutt said of Eligwe then. “He is the guy on defense that is running around the field and making all the tackles. You can tell this kid was a four-star All‐American coming out.”
Eligwe was the 42nd-best linebacker, according to Brugler. In his one season with the Chiefs, Eligwe recorded five tackles, two quarterback hits and one sack. Eligwe didn’t have much of a chance to increase his role after Veach acquired linebacker Reggie Ragland through a trade with the Buffalo Bills four months after the 2017 draft. In March 2018, the Chiefs signed veteran linebacker Anthony Hitchens to a five-year, $45 million contract, with $21.2 million guaranteed, in free agency.
With their final selection of the 2017 draft, the Chiefs used the 218th pick to acquire McQuay, a safety from USC who was the 33rd-best prospect at his position, according to Brugler. McQuay played in only one game in his NFL career, the Chiefs’ regular season finale in 2017 against the Denver Broncos, which was also Mahomes’ first career start. In the Chiefs’ win, McQuay recorded four tackles and one pass breakup.
In 2018, the Chiefs used a fourth-round pick to select safety Armani Watts, who replaced McQuay.
A couple months after the 2017 draft, Clark Hunt fired Dorsey. Although Dorsey was a skilled evaluator of players, he was reportedly fired for mismanaging the Chiefs’ salary cap. Dorsey was also criticized for his disorganization. The team’s top internal candidate for the general manager job was Veach, who was promoted to the role in July 2017.
After the first round, the Chiefs had one of the league’s most disappointing 2017 draft classes, as the team failed to meet Jeremiah’s benchmark of selecting at least three starters who are on the team past their rookie contract. But Jeremiah understands the Chiefs did make the best selection — and by a significant margin — when evaluating each team’s pick in the first round.
“They went all-in to go get Mahomes,” Jeremiah said. “That draft will be viewed as probably the best draft in Chiefs history.”
The majority of fans agree. A poll on blog website Arrowhead Pride asked fans to grade the team’s 2017 draft class. As of Tuesday night, 3,102 of the 3,819 votes, 81 percent of participants, gave the Chiefs an A grade. Another 15 percent gave the team a B grade (the next highest grade).
Since 2017, the Chiefs, under Veach’s leadership, have selected plenty of players who are starters or are capable of such a role in future seasons. In 2019, the team got valuable production from four players — receiver Mecole Hardman, free safety Juan Thornhill, defensive tackle Khalen Saunders and cornerback Rashad Fenton — in its rookie class to help the team win the Super Bowl.
Last year’s draft class already has three starters in Edwards-Helaire, linebacker Willie Gay and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, and tackle Lucas Niang, who opted out of last season amid the coronavirus pandemic, has a chance to be a starter in 2021.
With Mahomes entering the prime of his career, along with several core star players on large contracts, Veach is tasked with continuing to identify and add skillful players who can be productive during their rookie contract. The Chiefs want to sustain their excellence. Any future draft class within the Mahomes era that is similar to 2017, where only one player (unlikely to be the quarterback) is on the roster after four years, will likely not help the Chiefs achieve their goal.
“I’ve always had the belief that as long as Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes get off the bus, the Chiefs basically have a 75 percent chance to win every game,” Eager said. “If they completely whiff on a draft and it’s a void year, it could be really bad. On the other side, them completely hitting a draft out of the ballpark would have so much of an outsized positive effect for them than any other team in the league. If Kansas City had a draft like that, they might be unbeatable.
“Does that realization make Kansas City swing for the fence in the (upcoming) draft, like they did in 2017? Or do they play it safe?”
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