Geezzz Carlson is already hitting .455 this spring. Do you keep him in the minors till April 10th and get another year of control? That’s a free 6 months of control this year. And then the 6 years of control starts next year. Cubs did it with Bryant.
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Part of Bernie’s article on the Athletic:
Because of his maturity and talent and refined knowledge of the strike zone, the Cardinals have aggressively pushed Carlson through their minor league system. Never worried about Carlson’s early-age starting point (17), the Cards never hesitated to move him up to the next level.
Here’s what I’m referring to:
2016: Carlson played for the Cards’ affiliate in the Gulf Coast League. He was 17. The average age of position players in the league was 19.6 years. Carlson was one of only four regular position players younger than 18 to compete in the GCL.
2017: Carlson climbed to Peoria in the Class A Midwest League at age 18. The average age for position players in the circuit was 21.3. There were only three other 18-year-old hitters in the Midwest League that season.
2018: after starting out in Peoria, Carlson soon moved up to a more challenging level of Class A ball at age 19, playing for Palm Beach of the Florida State League. The league’s average age for position players: 22.4.
2019: On to Springfield, then Memphis, at age 20. In the Double-A Texas League, the average age of position players was 23.8. In the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, the average age for hitters was 26.3.
Carlson has always been among the very youngest players in the league at every stop of his climb, yet he validated management’s bold strategy. He did an impressive job, handled the increased difficulty at every level.
After displaying complete confidence in Carlson’s advanced baseball intelligence, his refined plate discipline, his surging power …
Mozeliak is now expressing a need for caution and the desire to see Carlson head back to Memphis for a few more “important” at-bats.
After comparing Carlson to Pujols and Taveras two months ago, Mozeliak now wants us to believe that Carlson’s place, at least for now, is at a spot in line behind O’Neill and Thomas — and heck, maybe even wait to take his turn after Justin Williams.
After enthusiastically putting young Carlson on a fast track to the majors and watching him ramp up without a hitch, the Cardinals now have the mind to tap the brakes and slow Carlson down.
Or could it simply be that they want to slow the service-time express that would take Carlson to a few stops at arbitration en route to the final destination of free agency a year ahead of management’s preferred schedule?
I wonder if this perceived reticence is somehow related to the oil-well contracts that went to Mike Trout ($426.5 million), Gerrit Cole ($324 million), Bryce Harper ($330 million), Manny Machado ($300 million), Nolan Arenado ($260 million), Anthony Rendon ($245 million) or Stephen Strasburg ($245 million).
Not that I’m skeptical or anything.
But the Cardinals have never handed out a contract larger than $130 million. That went to their new first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, a year ago.
If we look into the future, we can envision monster deals for pitcher Jack Flaherty and maybe Carlson. Obviously that depends on how the players perform until it’s their time to enter the free-agent sweepstakes.
If you can delay the massive payday for a year with Carlson, well, those few extra at-bats at Memphis really would be important and extremely valuable to Cardinals’ management.
Or if you are a team that’s desperate for offense, you could just put your best players in the lineup as much as possible — from Opening Day on.
It can be argued that Carlson should be in the St. Louis lineup for Game 1 of the regular season if he thrashes pitchers and excels defensively during his spring-training audition. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi:
Both Carlson and Gorman are having an impressive Spring Training so far.
The Cardinals have never played with players service time to get another year out of them besides Lynn. They have always started their "sure thing" players service time on Opening day. Pujols, Waino, Taveras, Mokina, Wacha, Hicks.
So should we try to get a free year of service out of Carlson and Gorman? [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
The Cardinals have never played with players service time to get another year out of them besides Lynn. They have always started their "sure thing" players service time on Opening day. Pujols, Waino, Taveras, Mokina, Wacha, Hicks.
So should we try to get a free year of service out of Carlson and Gorman?
Uhh... Taveras, Molina, and Wacha were all midseason call ups. Wainwright was a September call up in 2005 before making the roster in 2006.
Gorman definitely won’t make the opening day roster, it would probably be a stretch to see him in September, even without the new roster limitations this year. Carlson could play himself into a spot, but I see the more likely scenario as sending him to Memphis for at least two weeks until one of the other guys struggle. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi:
Uhh... Taveras, Molina, and Wacha were all midseason call ups. Wainwright was a September call up in 2005 before making the roster in 2006.
Gorman definitely won’t make the opening day roster, it would probably be a stretch to see him in September, even without the new roster limitations this year. Carlson could play himself into a spot, but I see the more likely scenario as sending him to Memphis for at least two weeks until one of the other guys struggle.
If Gorman sees action this year it means we are probably toast and also stupid. [Reply]
Man, how am I not supposed to get some serious wood over his spring training so far? He looks like the real ****ing deal. No over hype at all.:-)
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JUPITER, Fla.—There still are three more weeks of exhibition games to be played, which is a significant period of time. But if Dylan Carlson continues anything close to his current pace, the 21-year-old non-roster outfielder will be hard to keep off the Cardinals' club.
Carlton walked, singled and scored and doubled and scored in his first three plate appearances on Saturday. That extended Carlson's run to eight consecutive plate appearances in which he had reached base before he struck out in the eighth.
His double to right in the seventh keyed a three-run rally that broke a tie with the Washington Nationals and pushed the Cardinals to a 6-3 exhibition win. Carlson is seven for 14 (.500) with four walks in the first week's worth of Grapefruit League games.
Manager Mike Shildt summarized Carlson this way:
"I think you're seeing a good player. We use the word consistent a lot. Consistent with your approach. Consistent with your technique. You're seeing a guy that's able to do both and the rewards. . . eight for eight. . . that's a very impressive thing.
"But you're seeing a good player with a plan with the ability to execute. That's what you're seeing." [Reply]
I've seen every one of his AB's that was broadcast on MLB TV. Watched him play defense. I know its spring training but he seems to do everything right.
Corbin was eating hitters up. He was in mid season form. Carlson was pitched outside and down the whole AB. He was able to turn on a fastball inside and get good wood on it for a hit. Saw several players drop fly balls in the sun, he played it perfectly. Got back to the wall immediately, then started battling the sun and whether it was going out. Got the ball and threw a strike to 2B to avoid the runner advancing.
Estimates are he will miss 10-12 games this year if the Cardinals want to get another year of service time. So we would get 6 years and 145 or so games this year.
Dylan Carlson now leads all of MLB spring training with an 1.158 OPS. He’s making it difficult on any front office voices who might want to start him in the minors.
Andrew Miller is experiencing numbness and discomfort in his pitching arm. Mo gonna Mo with relievers. At least if he misses a good chunk of the year his contract won't vest for '21 and we can be done with him. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Does Carlson have like legit superstar upside?
Depends on how one defines a "superstar." I'm a little stingy with that designation. I think his upside could be a star player. One that makes the occasional All-Star team and is a solid hitter, good defender, good all round tools.
I'm not sure he projects as a +950-1050 OPS guy year in and year out that I would expect out of a superstar. That isn't a knock, obviously that is rarefied air. Something that Pujols spoiled us with for 11 years. [Reply]
