Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by O.city:
I just don't see the ability to test and trace out 330 million americans as a possibility.
Not now.
We needed to keep the lock down going through June 1. I said it weeks ago, and I'll say it again. I've stressed patience throughout this entire thread.
Beyond that, we need vigorous application of distancing and hygiene measures. The messaging behind this should have been consistent from the beginning, but the politicization of the virus has caused a sizable portion of the country to view methods of dropping the R0 as a partisan issue rather than one of public health.
Analyses in several locations around the world have shown the ability to get the R0 below one with these measures. If done, you can stamp the first wave of the epidemic out and then handle future flareups with much greater precision. But when you lack coordinated messaging about the seriousness and spread of the disease, and when people view public health through a political lens instead of a human one, you end up with a cocked up response. [Reply]
Originally Posted by staylor26:
That’s exactly what most of those people are saying though, so unless we’re waiting on a vaccine, what other reason would we have to still be hiding inside months from now?
You can go to work, restaurants etc but you will need to social distance, wear masks, frequent hand washing etc.
Certain sports though it is impossible to do that so I am skeptical the NBA or the NFL will play this year unless they just say fuck it. I know the NBA wouldn't do that though. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
must have been tough to go through. How is he doing now?
**** I feel like a dick now worried about my kids sports.
He is good now. He has Common Variable Immune deficiency so he will go through "sickly" spells where he is required to get an IVIG to bounce back. After the Kawasaki episode, he was getting an IVIG monthly for about 2 years and then less and less to the point where he hasn't had once in over a year and has been able to fight of illnesses on his own.
But this news just puts us back on high alert just because so little is known about KD to begin with. He is now 9.5 years old and 6 years removed from his KD episode. We are hoping he has "grown out" of this but know it's affecting teenagers as well now...
You don't want to mess with it...basically every blood vessel in there body becomes inflamed... [Reply]
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
You can go to work, restaurants etc but you will need to social distance, wear masks, frequent hand washing etc.
Certain sports though it is impossible to do that so I am skeptical the NBA or the NFL will play this year unless they just say fuck it. I know the NBA wouldn't do that though.
We can’t make exceptions for those kinds of jobs and just deal with the consequences? If the rest of the population is still doing that, I don’t see how we can’t. [Reply]
Originally Posted by staylor26:
That’s exactly what most of those people are saying though, so unless we’re waiting on a vaccine, what other reason would we have to still be hiding inside months from now?
I wouldn't call cherry-picking a few talking heads a representative sample. [Reply]
One thing that irritates me is the “new normal.” To me it’s a defeatist attitude that perpetuates the idea we can all just go about like this current existence is either normal or feasible long term. It’s neither and should be treated as such.
I also think that messaging causes more resistance to being patient. People are living in fear and uncertainty yet they have to hear “this is the new normal.” It’s not surprising that people will reject this idea and want to move out of it as quickly as possible. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
There may never be an effective/scalable vaccine, but society must re-open and go back to normal and not some bullshit “new normal”.
During the 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic which killed 100,000+ Americans (mostly ages 65+) and had an R0 comparable to COVID-19 (1.06-2.06 during the first wave and 1.21-3.58 during the second wave), there was no “social distancing” or lockdowns.
Instead America went on with their lives and historical events such as Woodstock, and millions gathering to watch and celebrate Neil Armstrong walk on the moon took place.
Meanwhile 50 years later people are now locked in their homes and afraid to get a haircut.
well jeez, maybe if we'd socially distanced and taken measures less than 100k would've died. you're cool with that many americans dead so we could get woodstock (not at all a success other than culturally mostly by people who weren't there--most who were there were miserable) and the moon landing (quick check: most watched from home. on tv. we could do that now both technologically AND with social distancing).
cool. 100k died in 1968-69. let's not socially distance so the 80k TOTAL IN LESS THAN FIVE MONTHS (you know, 1968-1969, 100k deaths... more than 24 months. 5 months 80k is way more dangerous, in case your logic board failed) can increase.
I still feel the biggest issue we have is we can't just pick something and do it, we have a population that has a huge number of people that will always be difficult no matter what is going on.
We're also a society that has a complete lack of patience, instant gratification that has been trained over the last 10 or so years has caused all that and with something like this having patience is needed. [Reply]
