Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Donger:
Do you think it makes sense to wait until states/regions are seeing a 10 to 14 day downward trajectory of new cases before opening up, compared to opening up when the opposite is happening?
Sounds like someone should tell the Dutch they're opening up their country too early. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Do you think it makes sense to wait until states/regions are seeing a 10 to 14 day downward trajectory of new cases before opening up, compared to opening up when the opposite is happening?
At first I was, but now I don't. We are continuing to increase testing at a great pace, it is estimated that 80% are asymptomatic if they test positive, so new cases will continue to rise. I believe are resources should be used to protect the vulnerable subset, the 90% who are at risk of hospitalization and death. If someone has tested positive, we should use contact tracing as much as possible to see if they have had contact with a someone in the vulnerable subset. We are betting on a vaccine that may never happen. Developing herd immunity should be the goal and that means looking at a positive tests as a sign we are getting closer, but ensuring that person stays isolated from the vulnerable subset. However, this is counter-intuitive to a 14 days decrease in cases. Submission mitigation is not an option. You agree, right? [Reply]
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
At first I was, but now I don't. We are continuing to increase testing at a great pace, it is estimated that 80% are asymptomatic if they test positive, so new cases will continue to rise. I believe are resources should be used to protect the vulnerable subset, the 90% who are at risk of hospitalization and death. If someone has tested positive, we should use contact tracing as much as possible to see if they have had contact with a someone in the vulnerable subset. We are betting on a vaccine that may never happen. Developing herd immunity should be the goal and that means looking at a positive tests as a sign we are getting closer, but ensuring that person stays isolated from the vulnerable subset, this is counter-intuitive to a 14 days decrease in cases. Submission mitigation is not an option. You agree, right?
No, I don't agree. I'd prefer we follow the plan. [Reply]
Originally Posted by F150:
And the death toll will fundamentally be the same, just took longer to get there whilst destroying lives and livelihoods of the survivors.
Originally Posted by Loneiguana:
Reopening before this subsides harms small bussiness.
With a stay at home order, your small business has insurance and what to help you. Your employees have unemployment.
Ending the lock down too soon is a bailout to the insurance companies. Now, as 60 percent of the population still doesnt go out, you as a small businesses owner are on your own. You dont get business interrupted coverage. You dont get anything. The economy is reopen, it's your fault if you go under.
And we are forcing your employees off unemployment.
A lot of actual small businesses are going to negatively suffer from premature re opening. Because, get this, a large majority of Americans arent going to go out. Restaurants with thin margins and needing x number of tables served and hour wont survive limited customers.
And people like you are going to cheer on under a faux " what about economy" concern.
A friend of mine that works as a bartender in Florida, told me they reopened and they did 5 tables in 5 hours. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
You know, it would be really annoying if there were strategies employed by numerous other countries that have stopped the disease in its tracks, especially if those strategies had been promoted by public health experts and on this thread for weeks, and that countries that had employed said strategies were actually able to open up after the period of initial lock down.
Oh wait...
Please expand on your word salad... Are you talking about S. Korea... China?
Why do you just ignore 33 million unemployed and growing and the human costs in health and death that this will cost if it isn't rectified?
Oh, wait, are you talking about NY and sending Covid-19 patients back to Nursing homes? If so, my bad, that shouldn't have happened. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
A friend of mine that works as a bartender in Florida, told me they reopened and they did 5 tables in 5 hours.
And that's going to happen regardless. There is no magic number or magic date where people will just pull a 180. So again, it's disingenuous to say had they waited longer they would have been been busier. They may be but there is no way of knowing that. But what we do know is regardless of when things open I think it is safe to assume you aren't going to see droves of people rushing back out. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Loneiguana:
Reopening before this subsides harms small bussiness.
With a stay at home order, your small business has insurance and what to help you. Your employees have unemployment.
Ending the lock down too soon is a bailout to the insurance companies. Now, as 60 percent of the population still doesnt go out, you as a small businesses owner are on your own. You dont get business interrupted coverage. You dont get anything. The economy is reopen, it's your fault if you go under.
And we are forcing your employees off unemployment.
A lot of actual small businesses are going to negatively suffer from premature re opening. Because, get this, a large majority of Americans arent going to go out. Restaurants with thin margins and needing x number of tables served and hour wont survive limited customers.
And people like you are going to cheer on under a faux " what about economy" concern.
Business interruption in the context of Covid-19 will likely be decided by the courts and is far from a given when deciding whether to reopen or not. [Reply]