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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
ToxSocks 01:54 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning. A press release from IHME said the full set of new projections will be released later this afternoon.

Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, referenced the updated projections on CNN earlier today, but said he couldn’t provide the specific number.

“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation of social distancing, we’re adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we’re seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example.”

He said multiple variables impact infections – like heat, testing capacity and population density – but “the most important one is mobility.”

Right now, he said, “we’re seeing an increase in mobility that’s leading to an increase in mortality unfortunately in the United States.”

The IHME director, Dr. Christopher Murray, will be holding a press briefing at 4 p.m. ET today with additional details.
Well shit. Models are never wrong.
[Reply]
Donger 01:54 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by jdubya:
You lost me at "projections"....Washington model has been so........entertaining lol
The one that estimated 60,000 to 80,000 deaths?
[Reply]
Monticore 01:55 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
It's easier to collect the crude oil that way.
I just don't picture a nice day at the beach to look like a Costco parking lot.
[Reply]
Donger 01:55 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
I just don't picture a nice day at the beach to look like a Costco parking lot.
It's Texas.
[Reply]
dirk digler 01:56 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
You just now figuring that out?

Yes :-)


Originally Posted by DaFace:
I still have trouble getting upset about people who are 1) reasonably spread out and 2) outside in the sun.

It definitely is ok to be out just doesn't look like much social distancing is going on at least in some of those groups.
[Reply]
jdubya 01:56 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
The one that estimated 60,000 to 80,000 deaths?
after it happened? yes....I can also tell you what the weather in SF will be .....yesterday
[Reply]
SAUTO 01:56 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
The one that estimated 60,000 to 80,000 deaths?
Lol.
[Reply]
Donger 01:57 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by jdubya:
after it happened? yes....I can also tell you what the weather in SF will be .....yesterday
No, the 60,000 to 80,000 estimate was released over a month ago, if memory serves.
[Reply]
Mecca 01:57 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
It's Texas.
Yea I've been to Galveston, 3 times, the water there looks like dogshit, it's not appealing.
[Reply]
SAUTO 01:57 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by jdubya:
after it happened? yes....I can also tell you what the weather in SF will be .....yesterday
That estimate was from a month ago and with strict restrictions.
[Reply]
SAUTO 01:57 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
No, the 60,000 to 80,000 estimate was released over a month ago, if memory serves.
April 8 IIRC.

We had 15k or something at that point
[Reply]
mr. tegu 01:58 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
My issue is you switched gears in the middle of a conversation.


Other than that I'm great with more information leading to more questions and hopefully answers.


You said the thinking about the deaths would be different if the 70k was spread out over 4 months. I said you can't spread the 70k out over 4 months no matter what because they happened in 2.

Anything else doesn't matter in that conversation and us just moving the goals.
I never said to spread out the dates of 70k over four months. I said if the infection period was spread over four months. As information suggest might be possible, then regardless of when the deaths were, it changes our thoughts on those deaths because of questions it raises I previously posted. I haven’t tried to change the facts of when those occurred.

I’ll go back to your 10 year example as it illustrates this. Assuming all 70k occur in the last two months, 70k in ten years (start of virus) is not as bad as 70k in four months (from start of virus) which is not as bad as 70k in two months from start of virus.
[Reply]
petegz28 01:58 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by jdubya:
after it happened? yes....I can also tell you what the weather in SF will be .....yesterday
But can you do it within 1 degree of accuracy?
[Reply]
SAUTO 02:00 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
I never said to spread out the dates of 70k over four months. I said if the infection period was spread over four months. As information suggest might be possible, then regardless of when the deaths were, it changes our thoughts on those deaths because of questions it raises I previously posted. I haven’t tried to change the facts of when those occurred.

I’ll go back to your 10 year example as it illustrates this. Assuming all 70k occur in the last two months, 70k in ten years (start of virus) is not as bad as 70k in four months (from start of virus) which is not as bad as 70k in two months from start of virus.


I don't care when it started.

70k died in 2 months and are still dying.
[Reply]
Marcellus 02:00 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Certain states probably never should've locked down at all, based onthe information we have now. But what's done is done. Many states, particularly in the west/southwest should be opening back up as soon as practical.

For example, here in AZ we're seeing the curve pretty much flattened, the number of people admitted to hospitals has tailed off, the death rate has nearly zeroed out. In the four months since the virus has been tracked here in AZ, we're still under 400, and Maricopa county, the largest AZ county, is still under 200, at 168, up 7 from yesterday. Thankfully our governor isn't a complete tard, and we're opening things back up completely by the 15th, with some temporary guidelines of course.

Most of the rest of the West/Southwest/Northwest (with a couple exceptions) should be planning on the same for the sake of their economies and people.
Our facility (food plant) has over 700 employees, closer to 800 with temporary employees, we have been operating 24/7 the whole time. We have been taking employees temperatures every day as they enter the building going on about 2 weeks now, we have had 1 person sent home for a fever. (wasn't Covid)

We have 25 cases in the county, with a 1 case increase in the last week. Lowes, Home Depot, Walmart, Sam's Club are all pretty damn busy along with every fast food drive through in town is absolutely packed at lunch. The metro area population is about 250K.

**Knocks on wood***

I've never thought treating SW Missouri like NYC made sense or even treating SW Missouri like STL or KC for that matter.
[Reply]
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