Uh most of the years there are 15 guys with 1st round grades, there have been years with less than 10.
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Not my fault this dumb motherfucker can’t understand something so simple.
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Well this is blatantly false. A lot of teams could have had a first round grade on a player but they have other needs so they don't draft that player
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Where did you get that from?
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I think there’s usually a little more than that, but that was my point when we last had this discussion. We were talking about trading away 29 and my point was that we likely weren’t getting a 1st round talent at that spot.
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If you have a 1st round grade on a player and take a 2nd round talent instead because of need, you're a stupid organization.

Especially in a draft like 2019 that was short on R1 grades and super long on R2 guys.

Thornhill fell to the late 2nd - he clearly wasn't getting 1st round grades. Almost the entire NFL passed on him twice. And full disclosure - he want almost exactly where I thought he'd go; maybe about 5 picks later (I figured he was a mid-late 2nd round guy given the depth of the position in the draft).

Guys outperform their draft grades all the time - that doesn't mean their draft grades were necessarily wrong. It just means that they transitioned better than expected.
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I said the “majority”.

There are never 32 first round grades according to the professionals. If you fall to the 2nd, particularly in a weak draft like this years, the majority of teams likely didn’t have a 1st round grade on you.
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Since O.City worships the ground you walk on can you please explain to him that me saying the majority of teams likely didn’t have a 1st round grade on Ya-Sin or Murphy is probably correct?
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There’s always guys who are first rd talents who fall.

Chris Jones, Jessie Bates, JuJu, Alvin Kamara, etc.

This was a deep safety group this year. I think that and Thornhill being a year older than everyone hurt him.

That’s fine. Our gain
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I disagree. That's why there's usually a run on a position late in drafts. Teams draft players all the time that were supposed to be there in the 2nd round but because there's a run on a position, they go ahead and either pull the trigger in the first or even trade up to get him. Sometimes if you need a player, you can't just stand pat and hope he falls to you
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Agreed - I tend to figure most years have about 20 R1 graded players. This year seemed a little less; 12-15 or so.

It's not just about their ceiling, it's about their odds of getting there. You can say Thornhill had a 1st round ceiling pretty easily because he tested well and had a nose for the football. But he was in his first year at S at UVA and so he could occasionally be baited into a bad decision. He also didn't always look like a sure/confident tackler at S, which is something that would scare off teams that DON'T have Mathieu to play alongside him in run support.

A 1st round grade requires that same ceiling but without quite as much risk. I don't see any problem with an R2 grade on Thornhill coming into this draft. He's simply playing closer to his ceiling and easing concerns about his floor.

Happens all the time with 2nd round picks especially. These are your conventional boom/bust picks anyway.
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Those are not smart organizations.

FA is for addressing need. The draft is for getting as much talent as you can with the limited number of bullets you have. Over 3 years every position on the football team is likely to become a 'need' and with 4-5 year rookie deals, you can simply stay ahead of your need curve by taking premier talents every time.

In the 2nd or especially 3rd/4th rounds I don't necessarily like need picks, but I understand them.

But in the 1st, if you're picking for need, you're just not being very smart. Take the most talented player and make it work.
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There are guys with first round upside that fall every year and most of them have some risks associated with them that take that 1st round talent but make a 2nd round grade a reasonable conclusion.

Jones was pad level and consistent effort. Those were real, legitimate concerns coming into the draft. He very clearly addressed those. Kamara had inexperience (only a handful of college starts) and durability concerns that he's put to bed. JuJu - shit man, if you saw him being this good, I tip my cap. I liked the guy but he looked like a solid possession WR who could be a big time contributor between the 20s and on 3rd downs, I NEVER saw him being this good and I can't say anyone expected him to be a truly elite guy.

But guys develop. It doesn't mean the entire NFL got it wrong, it just means that the draft is inexact. I mean some picks are just flat fucking dumb {cough}BreelandSpeaks{Cough}, but a lot of the time a guy falls for legitimate reasons that he's able to rise above. That doesn't mean it was absurd that he fell in the 1st place.
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I think the whole draft bpa and don't worry about need strategy is something people say but isn't practical at all. All organizations for the most part try to balance the two. I think if you go back and look at most drafts, most players drafted fall within that teams needs. Now it might not be their biggest need, but it is a need.
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I think teams consider needs within a tier, yes.

But I don't think there are many teams that are going to ignore tier in favor of need.

If you have 2 players with 2nd round grades and you need one more than the other, you'll take the guy you need more even if he's deeper in that 2nd round tier - yes, I agree with that.

But I don't think there are teams passing on guys they're giving 1st round grades to so that they can take a guy they graded quite a bit lower (there's a significant gap between 1st and 2nd round grades) who fits an immediate need more. I mean QB is an obvious exception but everywhere else? I don't see it.

And if there are teams that are doing that, those teams are creating a .500 upside for themselves.
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