Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by loochy:
So basically, if you are old and sickly you probably won't die if you are young and healthy you have an even better chance of surviving. :-)
Sounds like near half of US adult and teens are Vit D deficient , so finding many COVID patients that have it isn't surprising especially in elderly, obese, chronic kidney and liver disease . [Reply]
Gilead Sciences. Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) is aware of positive data emerging from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ (NIAID) study of the investigational antiviral remdesivir for the treatment of COVID-19. We understand that the trial has met its primary endpoint and that NIAID will provide detailed information at an upcoming briefing.
Remdesivir is not yet licensed or approved anywhere globally and has not yet been demonstrated to be safe or effective for the treatment of COVID-19. Gilead will share additional remdesivir data from the company’s open-label Phase 3 SIMPLE trial in patients with severe COVID-19 disease shortly. This study will provide information on whether a shorter, 5-day duration of therapy may have similar efficacy and safety as the 10-day treatment course evaluated in the NIAID trial and other ongoing trials. Gilead expects data at the end of May from the second SIMPLE study evaluating the 5- and 10-day dosing durations of remdesivir in patients with moderate COVID-19 disease.
Gilead will continue to discuss with regulatory authorities the growing data set regarding remdesivir as a potential treatment for COVID-19.
Originally Posted by Bowser:
I will own that I took that video to mean something more than it was, possibly. Maybe even go as far as falling for some confirmation bias I found in the words of those two doctors. It's clear that more testing needs to be done before we "conclusively" can state numbers on the scale they are suggesting.
However, if their lead detractor Dr. Carl Bergstrom of the University of Washington has anything else to say than "They've used methods that are ludicrous to get results that are completely implausible" I would be all ears. In fact, I think he really should explain how he came to that conclusion, especially in the face of what's being accused of the two doctors.
Also, let the record show that the Orange County Register is the one that took it political by pointing out how the two doctors were going on to Laura Ingraham's show, and how their story were making the rounds on "right wing media". Additionally, the article goes on to allege the two doctors are in this for fame and fortune, but never really shows WHY what they're saying is indeed not factual outside the lack of more wide spread testing.
Not sure if these two are 100% correct or incorrect, but it sure is telling how the media subtly tries to paint them in a certain light.
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Ehh, they need to stratify their data better, to be honest.
The IFR per 100K for flu was the following last year (inclusive of those with comorbidities)
18-49: 20
51-64: 61
Compare that to COVID in patients that don't have comorbidities from this study: 82/100K for 18-69.
You have a healthier population that is dying at a substantially higher rate.
They did include deaths due to comorbidities based on this statement from the release:
Originally Posted by :
Using available data on fatalities and population numbers a combined IFR in patients younger than 70 is estimated at 82 per 100,000 (CI: 59-154) infections. Conclusions: The IFR was estimated to be slightly lower than previously reported from other countries not using seroprevalence data. The IFR, including only individuals with no comorbidity, is likely several fold lower than the current estimate. This may have implications for risk mitigation.
As I have stated before from all the links I have posted, the flu, specifically H1N1 and 2017-2018 was much more harmful to the young and healthy than Covid-19. Therefore, if you extract deaths out of those with comorbidities and under age 70, it would be similar or less than some flu's in the past for the young and healthy...
^this^ from an inititial IFR from 3-6%. Again, I get why we took the measures that we did, but it is time that everyone understand the true risk and open back up in unison based on science. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Sounds like near half of US adult and teens are Vit D deficient , so finding many COVID patients that have it isn't surprising especially in elderly, obese, chronic kidney and liver disease .
Vitamin D is also one of the few nutrients we produce by exposure to the Sun. We should probably be getting out of our houses at some point. [Reply]
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
Vitamin D is also one of the few nutrients we produce by exposure to the Sun. We should probably be getting out of our houses at some point.
The official statement has always been: You need to get outside. Just stay inside while you do it!
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Not that I am aware of. We need more drugs like this to fully reopen our country prior while we wait for a vaccine. this is a very big deal
Oh yeah they did. Gilead claimed they were wrong. FWIW I don't believe jack shit from the WHO right now. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Didn't the WHO just shit all over this drug last week?
It was some sort of weird fluky thing. It was a "draft manuscript" that they accidentally posted and quickly took down. So yes, they said it didn't work, but apparently it was an accident? Hard to make much sense of what happened there. [Reply]
