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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
RedRaider56 08:48 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15:
That's the thing. All this talk and protest about opening back up, anyone with the slightest bit of common sense is going to wait to see how this plays out.

Anyone thinking that opening things up just magically solves the economy is in for a harsh wake up call.

Governor Ducey can let the order expire on Thursday, but I don't know a single person that is going to rush back to the office, or a bar, movie theater, etc.
In Austin, most of the movie theaters have said they will not reopen for awhile even though they can open starting Friday. They just don't have processes in place to provide safety to the patrons Most restaurants are delaying opening for the same reason
[Reply]
lewdog 08:49 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
To all the gym goers how long are you going to wait before returning to the gym?
First fucking day.

I go at 5 am. Usually not more than 5 of us there anyway.
[Reply]
Monticore 08:49 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
New York is an anomaly and it doesn't make a lot of sense why their death rate is so high. It can only be a few things like putting Covid 19 positive patients back in Nursing homes, categorizing all deaths at home as Covid-19 deaths, 3700 without testing them, or poor treatment and care compared to other states. That being said, their deaths are still largely those with underlying conditions and/or older than 70...
Or it possible the virus is worse than the flu, and they put measures in place after the virus took hold, they could be under counting deaths too, maybe they gotta different strain, population density plus the theory of initial viral loads determining severity of symptoms, subways , mass transit etc ...
there are significantly more deaths in NYC compared to similar timeframe from previous years.
We don’t know why we just know it is.

Deaths of the flu are also normally related to underlying conditions, most deaths in general related to disease/infections are also secondary to underlying conditions
[Reply]
O.city 08:55 PM 04-28-2020
It's just weird that so many other cities were in similar situations as NY early and it just didn't materialize like it did there.
[Reply]
Monticore 09:00 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
It's just weird that so many other cities were in similar situations as NY early and it just didn't materialize like it did there.
Yes it is , theory that Europe and NYC got one strain and west coast got a different one . I just know that some healthy young people are dying , ah e not often but seems scary to me.
[Reply]
O.city 09:01 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Yes it is , theory that Europe and NYC got one strain and west coast got a different one . I just know that some healthy young people are dying , ah e not often but seems scary to me.
It's just extremely rare for a young healthy person to die. So many probably have it and don't even know it.
[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 09:03 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
Holy shit why are you lecturing me on math?

Is your calculator busted?

6501 divided by 4,410,000 is .147% not .0147% you are off by a factor of another 10. The two bolded numbers I posted are not the same you moved the decimal the wrong number of places. It has to be moved by two places in a percent.

Again .147% >> .026%




On the second point Of course it adds up we’ve had severe lockdown measures to reduce the r0 below its natural infectivity. As I explained the first time (you apparently didn’t read it closely) I used the figure 4.4 million as of April 14. It is two weeks old. It would be higher today. But also as I explained I had to match it with the CDC data that is also 2 weeks old. There is no current cdc table breaking down covid19 deaths by age I could find (and you sure aren’t providing it).
'

Again from the study:

Originally Posted by :
The IFR, including only individuals with no comorbidity, is likely several fold lower than the current estimate.
Those under 70 and no underlying health conditions would be several folds lower... get it.

Serious question, you really think we have only had 4.4 million infected in the US right now?

Death by age for NYC and Italy...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...gion-in-italy/
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 09:03 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
Come on...

Hamas even said this was a well designed study, and no offense to Hamas, but these people seem pretty well educated and used the variable in their estimates...
The study was well-designed. They smartly took blood donations from a period of time that almost certainly predated the epidemic to test for false positives (as did the other study I linked last night that tested commercially-available kits in the US).

The specificity is estimated by the authors at 99.5%, but that was taken from 654 blood samples, not 10,000, and they do reference the lack of a clinical gold standard to measure this against as a potential issue.
[Reply]
Kidd Lex 09:04 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
"Hope" is not a realistic strategy for large scale events, restaurants, gyms, haircut establishments and other businesses that some want to remain closed or at reduced capacity until there is a vaccine.

There may not be a scalable/effective vaccine for several years or ever.

Herd immunity is a more realistic strategy.
Incredible videos have been posted here to educate anyone who will take the time to watch them. Hearing from the people who do this for a living, there confidence level is way beyond hope for a vaccine, and there are many different approaches underway.
[Reply]
O.city 09:10 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Yes it is , theory that Europe and NYC got one strain and west coast got a different one . I just know that some healthy young people are dying , ah e not often but seems scary to me.
Kind of nitpicky too, but technically, there aren't multiple strains. It's a tree of subtypes, which IIRC, in these things isn't necessarily unexpected.
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 09:14 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
'

Again from the study:



Those under 70 and no underlying health conditions would be several folds lower... get it.

Serious question, you think, that we have only had 4.4 million infected in the US right now?

Death by age for NYC and Italy...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...gion-in-italy/
Ehh, they need to stratify their data better, to be honest.

The IFR per 100K for flu was the following last year (inclusive of those with comorbidities)

18-49: 20
51-64: 61

Compare that to COVID in patients that don't have comorbidities from this study: 82/100K for 18-69.

You have a healthier population that is dying at a substantially higher rate.
[Reply]
Monticore 09:17 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Kind of nitpicky too, but technically, there aren't multiple strains. It's a tree of subtypes, which IIRC, in these things isn't necessarily unexpected.
Ya sorry , what I am trying to say is we don’t know everything we need to know yet.
[Reply]
dirk digler 09:18 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Yes it is , theory that Europe and NYC got one strain and west coast got a different one . I just know that some healthy young people are dying , ah e not often but seems scary to me.
I was watching Chris Cuomo tonight and he was talking to Dr Gupta and he didn’t go into detail but he said he got his blood work back and his doctor didn’t know what to make of it. This virus is doing things to the body that we are only scratching the surface on.

A lot of these young people dying are dying from sudden heart attacks and strokes related to covid. We need to figure this shit out quick
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 09:25 PM 04-28-2020
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.20075838v1
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 09:26 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
I was watching Chris Cuomo tonight and he was talking to Dr Gupta and he didn’t go into detail but he said he got his blood work back and his doctor didn’t know what to make of it. This virus is doing things to the body that we are only scratching the surface on.

A lot of these young people dying are dying from sudden heart attacks and strokes related to covid. We need to figure this shit out quick
There are a lot of wacky lab values related to COVID.

A lot of patients present with elevated d-dimer and fibrinogen levels in the blood and the more serious cases will also have lymphopenia and leukopenia.

Elevated d-dimer and fibrinogen levels point to coagulopathies (they are byproducts of broken up blood clots), whereas the latter two point to a depleted immune system.

Increased levels of NT-proBNP and BNP are indicative of heart failure and troponin levels indicate recent cardiac damage.
[Reply]
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