Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Sweden's death rate is 6x that of their neighbors while still implementing many social distancing measures, but keep banging that drum.
And if the second wave of the virus comes back in the fall, Sweden with herd immunity will be a hell of a lot more prepared to deal with it than countries without the same herd immunity.
What's the plan to deal with the second wave without herd immunity?
There will be no vaccine.
Go back into draconian lockdown mode and destroy the economy again? [Reply]
South Korea - The battle is won
Norway and Denmark - Starting to win, but not there yet
Sweden, UK, and US - Looking better, but still not winning [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I think where Sweden comes out better is they could be one and done if you will. Whereas we could be looking at some repeats.
There is something to be said for just carrying on and dealing with it. Yes, it is more costly in the short term but longer term they might be ahead of the game.
Right. Their theory is that they're taking it on the chin right now so that they can be out of it sooner.
I don't know how you can look at the data right now and say that their approach is BETTER in the short-term. [Reply]
It sounds like Missouri is pretty much full open again next week. Some restrictions still in place, but restaurants and barber shops and such all can open. [Reply]
Originally Posted by wazu:
It sounds like Missouri is pretty much full open again next week. Some restrictions still in place, but restaurants and barber shops and such all can open.
Still have to use social distancing until May 31 though [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
It seems like any question of deaths could be resolved pretty quickly. Assuming that there's no other pandemic going on, and correcting for potential seasonal patterns, just look at the normal death rate and number of deaths, and compare it to what we've got this year. The difference is due to covid. Whether it killed a healthy person or exacerbated an underlying existing health issue, it's responsible for that difference.
For every studied location except Denmark, the excess deaths computed via this method greatly outnumber what has been being officially attributed to COVID-19.
By the way, the graphs in that article are a bit confusing, because the vertical axis is for weekly average deaths, but the excess deaths are show in absolute counts that don't match the vertical axis. I believe that those excess deaths are formed via integration (i.e. they are partial areas between the observed and expected curves over the time period of interest). [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Yeah, the log scale here is critical. Sweden is currently having about 10x as many deaths per week as their neighbors. That's not a very good argument that they're "winning."
Except for one flaw....sweden won't have a wave two. As much as they say that there's no evidence that getting the virus once will protect you from getting it a second time, that's bullshit. It's almost certain if you were to get it a second time the incidence is much less severe. Otherwise the entire premise of getting a vaccine is pointless.
So while Sweden may look higher now, they know there is no seccond wave. Everyone else will have a second wave unless they lockdown for the 12-18 months it takes to generate a vaccine. Let's consider the three studies on anti-bodies. Right now it looks much less deadly than feared...but at the same time much more contagious. No lockdown will stop it, only time shift the spike.
Personally I think the countries doing lockdowns will easily kill far more people than those that don't. Especially if you honest factor in the increase in suicides/homicides caused by isolation and economic devistation. [Reply]
So KCMO has had 2.5 incubation period cycles. The crude arithmetic mean suggests the shelter in place mandate puts a floor on new cases somewhere between 4-8% per day.
Since we've clearly moved from "flatten the curve" to "people cannot be allowed to die" goal I do not see how Lucas doesn't extend S-I-P past May 15 since the number of new cases will never go through that 4-8% floor. [Reply]
Originally Posted by CrazyPhuD:
Except for one flaw....sweden won't have a wave two. As much as they say that there's no evidence that getting the virus once will protect you from getting it a second time, that's bullshit. It's almost certain if you were to get it a second time the incidence is much less severe. Otherwise the entire premise of getting a vaccine is pointless.
So while Sweden may look higher now, they know there is no seccond wave. Everyone else will have a second wave unless they lockdown for the 12-18 months it takes to generate a vaccine. Let's consider the three studies on anti-bodies. Right now it looks much less deadly than feared...but at the same time much more contagious. No lockdown will stop it, only time shift the spike.
Personally I think the countries doing lockdowns will easily kill far more people than those that don't. Especially if you honest factor in the increase in suicides/homicides caused by isolation and economic devistation.
We don't know that either. It's not like life is normal there - they're still enforcing social distancing measures. Just not near as strongly as everyone else is. Whatever level of "not obviously losing" they have may be driven as much by voluntary compliance and climate, so it's possible they'll see a wave 2 in the fall like everyone else. [Reply]
