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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
TLO 08:18 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by Bugeater:
I don't know man....I think I'd be a little freaked out if I found out I was carrying it and potentially unknowingly spreading it around.
I think I would too. But it's very possible that may be the case already
[Reply]
O.city 08:19 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
We need to be able to test people who are symptomatic, that's a given. This will still be very important moving forward.

But what we really need is mass, (ACCURATE), antibody testing. We need to see just how many people out there have already had this thing.
Need to be able to test damn near anyone and everyone if that’s the route we’re going.

A precise and a specific test
[Reply]
TLO 08:20 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
probably in the hundreds of thousands maybe a million. Even with social distancing we will probably hit 100k
Unless we see a drastic drop off in deaths within the next 2 week's, 100k is not out of the question. Plus we'll still have to see if deaths spike back up once we are "open for business" again.

There's so much unknown..
[Reply]
O.city 08:20 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
probably in the hundreds of thousands maybe a million. Even with social distancing we will probably hit 100k
You think there’d me that many deaths already?
[Reply]
notorious 08:21 PM 04-25-2020
Just from using deductive reasoning we can assume:

1. It's a lot more widespread than previously thought
2. Death rates are way lower than predicted
3. It was going to spread everywhere anyway, the social distancing helped hospitals gear up for the worst case scenario

I am surrounded by the 3 "large" towns that have turned into hot spots the last few days. We will see how an area in the middle of nowhere reacts.
[Reply]
TLO 08:24 PM 04-25-2020
For anyone who isn't aware of how Sweden is doing things.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...y-2020-4%3famp
[Reply]
tk13 08:24 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I'm going to keep a close eye on Sweden. From my understanding, they are practicing some social distancing measures and not much else.

I agree that our number of deaths would be higher at this point, but would they have been higher overall? I guess it depends on if hospitals got overrun, etc.
We've had this argument. I think the Sweden argument is terrible because one, they are still social distancing. Two, they have way, way more cases than their neighbors. If they do end up having way more cases and deaths and Norway and Finland it's going to look horrible.

Thirdly, they are an entirely different society. Right or wrong, it's easy for people there to support this strategy because they don't have to worry about medical billing.
[Reply]
HonestChieffan 08:24 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
We need to be able to test people who are symptomatic, that's a given. This will still be very important moving forward.

But what we really need is mass, (ACCURATE), antibody testing. We need to see just how many people out there have already had this thing.
How will we do that? You think people who feel perfectly well and happy are somehow line up to get some test run?

What we really need is a return to some level of common sense

When a sick person goes to the doc, test them.....assuming we have a test that is actually accurate and fast. But no way will we get "mass testing" so that someone somewhere has a new number to mess with.

You may get a sample of people big enough to come up with a projection at the very most
[Reply]
Mr_Tomahawk 08:26 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by notorious:
Just from using deductive reasoning we can assume:

1. It's a lot more widespread than previously thought
2. Death rates are way lower than predicted
3. It was going to spread everywhere anyway, the social distancing helped hospitals gear up for the worst case scenario

I am surrounded by the 3 "large" towns that have turned into hot spots the last few days. We will see how an area in the middle of nowhere reacts.

Summed up nicely.
[Reply]
DaFace 08:26 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by Bugeater:
I don't see that as being bad, it means we may be closer to herd immunity than previously thought.
My fear is that it's somewhere in the middle. If it spreads that fast, that means you need a REALLY high percentage of people to get it to reach herd immunity (i.e., 80-90% or higher). Even if we already have 20% of the population impacted (which seems like it's on the high side, but maybe), that means we still have 4-5x as many people who will die.

But I guess on the good side, social distancing won't really have much of a point if it's that high, so life will kind of go back to normal relatively quickly (aside from the death count).
[Reply]
tk13 08:26 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
You think there’d me that many deaths already?
Why wouldn't there be? Every nursing home, prison and meat plant this thing gets into shuts the whole place down and there are hundreds of cases. Imagine if people were working normally. We'd have millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. We already have 50K dead with most of our workplaces and entertainment options shut down and people unable to congregate in large numbers.
[Reply]
petegz28 08:27 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
:-) 50,000+ dead in 6 weeks is an over reaction.
We are over counting deaths. Sorry but I just think we are. I mean if people even think the person has covid they are listing covid as the cause. Granted there are still a lot of people dying even so.
[Reply]
petegz28 08:28 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by notorious:
Just from using deductive reasoning we can assume:

1. It's a lot more widespread than previously thought
2. Death rates are way lower than predicted
3. It was going to spread everywhere anyway, the social distancing helped hospitals gear up for the worst case scenario

I am surrounded by the 3 "large" towns that have turned into hot spots the last few days. We will see how an area in the middle of nowhere reacts.
^
[Reply]
TLO 08:29 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by HonestChieffan:
How will we do that? You think people who feel perfectly well and happy are somehow line up to get some test run?

What we really need is a return to some level of common sense

When a sick person goes to the doc, test them.....assuming we have a test that is actually accurate and fast. But no way will we get "mass testing" so that someone somewhere has a new number to mess with.

You may get a sample of people big enough to come up with a projection at the very most
Um.. Yes. I think people who feel perfectly well would love to know if they've been exposed to the virus and have antibodies.

The tests they are using now is a finger prick test.
[Reply]
O.city 08:29 PM 04-25-2020
Originally Posted by tk13:
We've had this argument. I think the Sweden argument is terrible because one, they are still social distancing. Two, they have way, way more cases than their neighbors. If they do end up having way more cases and deaths and Norway and Finland it's going to look horrible.

Thirdly, they are an entirely different society. Right or wrong, it's easy for people there to support this strategy because they don't have to worry about medical billing.
We’ll see how it plays out.

The issue we’re gonna have is once we open back up it’s gonna happen at some point.
[Reply]
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