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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Monticore 08:36 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
It's not arbitrary at all.

March 21 = 374 deaths
April 21 = 45,318 deaths
with preventative measures in place with a few hot spots , not equally spread across the country.
[Reply]
Donger 08:37 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Yes it is. How do you know we didn't have anyone die from this before we started keeping count?
That isn't relevant to his statement of fact:

That's 45,000 people dead in one month.

[Reply]
Monticore 08:37 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Yes it is. How do you know we didn't have anyone die from this before we started keeping count?
How many more 200? 20000? either way you look at it is still bad.
[Reply]
petegz28 08:37 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
We most likely missed some as well with this theory.
I'm sure we missed a lot. I mean every day we are finding out this hit the country sooner than we thought. We are also being told more people up to a factor of 55 really have this virus.
[Reply]
Donger 08:38 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
with preventative measures in place with a few hot spots , not equally spread across the country.
Yes. I shudder to think what they would have been without it.
[Reply]
petegz28 08:38 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
How many more 200? 20000? either way you look at it is still bad.
Who knows? That is sorta my point. I am not disagreeing with his take just stating that the 300 number could very easily be more but we aren't counting them for obvious reasons.
[Reply]
DaFace 08:39 AM 04-22-2020
Good lord. More debates about the exact numbers. WHY??????
[Reply]
mr. tegu 08:40 AM 04-22-2020
This is a few weeks old but not sure if it was posted. Yes I’m aware it hasn’t been peer reviewed so try to contain yourself from mentioning that. It’s pretty subjective but interesting anyways.

Originally Posted by :
Abstract

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections to date has relied on RT-PCR testing. However, a failure to identify early cases imported to a country, bottlenecks in RT-PCR testing, and the existence of infections which are asymptomatic, sub-clinical, or with an alternative presentation than the standard cough and fever have resulted in an under-counting of the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we show how publicly available CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient surveillance data can be repurposed to estimate the detection rate of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. We find a surge of non-influenza ILI above the seasonal average and show that this surge is correlated with COVID case counts across states. By quantifying the number of excess ILI patients in March relative to previous years and comparing excess ILI to confirmed COVID case counts, we estimate the syndromic case detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the US to be approximately 1 our of 100. This corresponds to at least 28 million presumed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 patients across the US during the three week period from March 8 to March 28. Combining excess ILI counts with the date of onset of community transmission in the US, we also show that the early epidemic in the US was unlikely to be doubling slower than every 3.5 days. Together these results suggest a conceptual model for the COVID epidemic in the US in which rapid spread across the US are combined with a large population of infected patients with presumably mild-to-moderate clinical symptoms. We emphasize the importance of testing these findings with seroprevalence data, and discuss the broader potential to use syndromic time series for early detection and understanding of emerging infectious diseases.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....01.20050542v2
[Reply]
petegz28 08:40 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Good lord. More debates about the exact numbers. WHY??????
Why not? :-)
[Reply]
Donger 08:41 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Good lord. More debates about the exact numbers. WHY??????
Why not?
[Reply]
DaFace 08:42 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Why not?
Because people come to this thread to keep up on the latest news and information, but about every other day we go for 100-200 posts in a row where all you're doing is debating minutiae that doesn't matter. We've gone from "not many deaths" to "a fuck ton of deaths" in a month. Why is it so critical to agree on some exact number that we all know is pretty rough anyway?

It's why I keep joking about forcing "debate the numbers" talk into its own thread. It's just useless and clutters up what is otherwise mostly good conversation.
[Reply]
sedated 08:43 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I mean every day we are finding out this hit the country sooner than we thought.
No, we're not.

Where are you getting this bullshit?
[Reply]
Monticore 08:44 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Who knows? That is sorta my point. I am not disagreeing with his take just stating that the 300 number could very easily be more but we aren't counting them for obvious reasons.
I just know Influenza is very dangerous and deadly and people are not scared enough of it (45% of adults over 18 get the flu shot in US), this is worse(by how much who knows) , more complicated with no vaccine and natural immunity.

That is all that people should be considering at this point trying to makes sense of numbers at this point will make you go crazy and could potentially cause harm because depending on how you look at the numbers it could mislead people into thinking this isn't serious.
[Reply]
Donger 08:48 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Because people come to this thread to keep up on the latest news and information, but about every other day we go for 100-200 posts in a row where all you're doing is debating minutiae that doesn't matter. We've gone from "not many deaths" to "a **** ton of deaths" in a month. Why is it so critical to agree on some exact number that we all know is pretty rough anyway?

It's why I keep joking about forcing "debate the numbers" talk into its own thread. It's just useless and clutters up what is otherwise mostly good conversation.
I can't agree. Having more deaths in one month from this thing compared to a normal flu season IS news and information.

But, I digress.
[Reply]
petegz28 08:49 AM 04-22-2020
Originally Posted by sedated:
No, we're not.

Where are you getting this bullshit?
Coronavirus US live: first Covid-19 deaths were weeks earlier than originally thought
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...t-news-updates

This is just the latest from today....
[Reply]
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