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Super Bowl 2021 picks: Chiefs predicted as heavy favorites by our NFL experts
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Super Bowl LV between the Chiefs and Bucs is upon us.
Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes!
Tampa Bay playing … in Tampa!
The Chiefs going for their second straight championship!
We rounded up 33 The Athletic staffers to predict the winner. Below is a breakdown of the results — which lean heavily in the Chiefs’ favor.
Super Bowl predictions
Of the 25 writers who picked the Chiefs:
52% thought the Chiefs would win by 4-8 points.
28% thought the Chiefs would win by two scores or more.
20% thought the Chiefs would win by three points or fewer.
The biggest predicted win for the Chiefs came from Bo Wulf, who thinks they will win by 15 points, 42-27.
The smallest predicted wins for the Chiefs came from Zach Berman and Zac Jackson, who think they will win by one point (31-30 for Berman, 34-33 for Jackson).
Of the eight writers who picked the Bucs:
Only two thought the Bucs would win by more than three points: Jay Morrison, who thinks the Bucs will win in overtime(!) 37-31, and Mark Kaboly, who thinks Tampa will win 21-14.
Chiefs win predictions
The explanation for most of these? Two words: Patrick Mahomes. Below are all of the scores with a sampling of the responses scattered throughout.
Chad Graff, Vikings beat writer: Chiefs 31, Bucs 27
Matt Schneidman, Packers beat writer: Chiefs 34, Bucs 20
Matt Barrows, 49ers beat writer: Chiefs 35, Bucs 27
Mike Sando, national NFL writer: Chiefs 34, Bucs 24
Kevin Fishbain, Bears beat writer: Chiefs 32, Bucs 20
“Nobody is stopping Patrick Mahomes and his arsenal of weapons. It’s really that simple.” — Schneidman
“The Bucs beat two teams all season that had a winning record. The Chiefs beat five.” — Sando
“As someone who covered the 2020 Bears, I can’t pick a team that lost to the Bears to win the Super Bowl (but they can cover!).” — Fishbain
Tashan Reed, Raiders beat writer: Chiefs 35, Bucs 24
Aaron Reiss, Texans beat writer: Chiefs 30, Bucs 24
Jon Machota, Cowboys beat writer: Chiefs 31, Bucs 28
Zac Jackson, Browns beat writer: Chiefs 34, Bucs 33
Sheil Kapadia, national NFL writer: Chiefs 30, Bucs 26
“When in doubt, ride with the best football player on the planet — Mahomes. There’s a scenario where he’s under constant pressure, but even then, Mahomes has shown he can operate in less than ideal circumstances, and no lead against Kansas City is ever safe.” — Kapadia
“Patrick Mahomes is the NFL’s best player, and I don’t believe it’s particularly close. Tom Brady is the GOAT, but it’s Mahomes’ league now.” — Machota
“Tom Brady winning it all in his first season without Bill Belichick would be an amazing story, but I’m going with the best player in the world, Patrick Mahomes.” — Reiss
Jeff Zrebiec, Ravens beat writer: Chiefs 30, Bucs 24
Stephen Cohen, NFL editor: Chiefs 34, Bucs 28
Lindsay Jones, national NFL writer: Chiefs 34, Bucs 30
Joe Rexrode, Titans columnist: Chiefs 34, Bucs 23
Zak Keefer, Colts beat writer: Chiefs 31, Bucs 21
“Not a chance I’m picking against Patrick Mahomes. The scary part? We haven’t even seen the Chiefs at their best.” — Keefer
“The Bucs keep it close, but Mahomes hits Kelce for the game-winning TD late.” — Cohen
“The Chiefs will have a plan to offset their offensive line injuries. The Bucs will have no plan that can deal with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.” — Rexrode
Joe Person, Panthers beat writer: Chiefs 31, Bucs 24
Michael-Shawn Dugar, Seahawks beat writer: Chiefs 30, Bucs 24
Dan Duggan, Giants beat writer: Chiefs 34, Bucs 26
Nick Kosmider, Broncos beat writer: Chiefs 34, Bucs 23
Josh Tolentino, Dolphins beat writer: Chiefs 32, Bucs 27
“Having covered Super Bowl 50, in which the Broncos overwhelmed offensive tackle Mike Remmers, I don’t love that matchup for the Chiefs. But I think Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have enough magic and firepower to overcome protection issues.” — Person
“It’s hard to pick against Tom Brady, but Patrick Mahomes will continue to build his resume to someday challenge Brady’s undisputed status as the GOAT.” — Duggan
“The Packers failed to capitalize on Tom Brady’s avalanche of NFC Championship turnovers, in large part because of their own giveaways and other miscues (see: fourth-and-goal from the 8). Patrick Mahomes won’t offer Tampa Bay the same gifts, and Mahomes will certainly make Brady pay for any mistakes he commits.” — Kosmider
Zach Berman, Eagles beat writer: Chiefs 31, Bucs 30
Paul Dehner Jr., Bengals beat writer: Chiefs 34, Bucs 30
Bo Wulf, Eagles beat writer: Chiefs 42, Bucs 27
Larry Holder, Saints beat writer: Chiefs 27, Bucs 24
Jourdan Rodrigue, Rams beat writer: Chiefs 34, Bucs 28
“Sure the obvious headliner will be Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes. But I think the difference-maker will be Tyrann Mathieu. He’ll make a game-changing play to give Kansas City another Super Bowl win.” — Holder
“Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Mahomes will be the stars in a game that goes back-and-forth through three quarters before Kansas City pulls away in the fourth.” — Rodrigue
“The only question in my mind is whether Brady will shake Mahomes’ hand after the game (he won’t).” — Wulf
Bucs win predictions
Because there were far fewer of these predictions, we’ve included all of the reasons for the Bucs picks below. Tom Brady magic factored in, but so did a stout defense.
Ben Standig, Washington beat writer: Bucs 31, Chiefs 28: No repeat Super Bowl champion since Tom Brady’s Patriots in 2003-04. Is that enough of a reason to pick against Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense? Probably not, but we’ll go with history and Brady’s new team.
Adam Jahns, Bears beat writer: Buccaneers 29, Chiefs 27: The Chiefs are the better team and Patrick Mahomes is the better quarterback. But a storybook finish is obviously being written by Tom Brady.
Vic Tafur, Raiders beat writer: Bucs 27, Chiefs 24: Team of destiny, yadda yadda yadda. There is no logical reason to pick against Patrick Mahomes, but the injuries on the Chiefs’ OL and 150-1 odds on Jason Pierre-Paul being MVP have nudged me in that direction.
Mark Kaboly, Steelers beat writer: Bucs 21, Chiefs 14: In a game that is going to go a little overboard waxing poetic about the starting quarterbacks, it’s going to be the Ronald Jones/Leonard Fournette combination that’s going to be the difference.
Jay Morrison, Bengals beat writer: Buccaneers 37, Chiefs 31 (overtime): Never bet against Brady. Never bet against revenge wins in Super Bowl rematches. And never, ever bet against a team playing the Super Bowl on its home field, even if we’ve never seen it before. It feels as though we’re in for a classic, and 60 minutes won’t be enough.
Dan Pompei, national NFL writer: Bucs 33, Chiefs 31: For the Bucs, the outcome of this game rides on Todd Bowles as much as Tom Brady, and the bet is he has learned from mistakes made earlier this season.
Chris Burke, Lions beat writer: Bucs 31, Chiefs 28: Can you bet on a defense when you’re predicting 59 points will be scored? I guess up against the Chiefs’ offense that counts as a strong showing. So, give me Brady and a couple of key stops.
Jeff Howe, Patriots beat writer: Bucs 34, Chiefs 27. It takes a nearly perfect game to knock off the Chiefs, so the Bucs better have gotten the sloppiness out of their system. Brady will be on point, and the Bucs pass rush has enough firepower to disrupt a short-handed offensive line, especially with Mahomes’ turf toe situation.
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