I know the title is my own question, but I'm going to answer my own question. This guy has very clearly shown that last year was an absolute fluke. He can't do anything worth a shit and if Veach wouldn't have given him a stupid ass extension, then he'd be off this team. In what universe do you keep giving the ball to a guy that has 41 rushes for 70 yards and 1.7 ypc. This last game was absolute dog shit 11 total touches for 6 ****ing yards. Are you kidding me? He shouldn't touch the ball again.
Bad is an understatement. He's horrendous. Literally the absolute worst back in the league. There are 43 qualified players and he ranks 43rd in ypc. He's at 1.7 ypc and no one else is under 3.0 ypc. The distance between him and the 42nd rank player, Le'Veon Bell, is 1.3 ypc. The distance between Le'Veon Bell and the 20th ranked player, Chris Carson, is 1.3 ypc.
This is definitely something that needs brought up more. That's gotta be some kind of record for worst ever. We are seeing history boys. The absolute worst RB performance in the history of the game or close. I took off the hide non qualifiers filter and it looks even worse. He's 192 out of 227. There are only 5 other players with 10+ carries that average less ypc, it's pretty much a Who's Who of most electric runners in the league.
#194 Kalen Ballage - 22 car/36 yards/1.6 ypc/13 carries since being demoted from being a starter 3 games ago
#198 Joe Flacco - 11 car/11 yards/1.0 ypc/He's a statue of a QB. **** id hope Williams would have more ypc than this bum. Spoiler alert - all the rest of this list is the same. Statue QBs.
#208 Jared Goff
#210 Jimmy G.
#213 Tom Brady
Did some more research and going all the way back to 1999, so 20 other years, and the lowest ypc for qualified runners is 2.5 ypc in 1999. The average of all the lowest ypc is 2.9. I can't believe how bad that he has been. There is no way anyone can even try to defend him. He's the king of shit fest running backs and for Reid to continue to allow him to play is egregious. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Gravedigger:
Let's not crown him King just yet fellas. Take out the 91 yard run and he's 11 carries for 34 yards.
Why would you take out the 91-yard run? It happened. I hate it when people say, "Well, if you take out _________ huge plays, the stats are much worse." Yeah, no shit. But the huge play actually happened in real life, so we don't take it out. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mama Hip Rockets:
Why would you take out the 91-yard run? It happened. I hate it when people say, "Well, if you take out _________ huge plays, the stats are much worse." Yeah, no shit. But the huge play actually happened in real life, so we don't take it out.
Agree. Take out Tyreeks bombs and he's not a game changing WR [Reply]
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
Agreed. I think we all kind of overreacted a bit. As fans we just expect perfection all the time. You can’t just bench guys because they have a rough patch. That’s why Reid’s still giving Shady carries, still trotting Hardman and DAT (well..) out there on returns and why we went back to Damien after he averaged like 1 YPC for multiple games.
Damien is probably the worst pure rusher on the team, but he’s the best pass catching back we’ve got and apparently he’s the best at securing the ball by a wide margin as well.
Good post.
And Pat's gimpy ankle and the injuries on the line didn't help any. Especially in the screen game. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mama Hip Rockets:
Why would you take out the 91-yard run? It happened. I hate it when people say, "Well, if you take out _________ huge plays, the stats are much worse." Yeah, no shit. But the huge play actually happened in real life, so we don't take it out.
Exactly. That’s why ypc is a good stat. It’s an average.
Do we also take out the times that the line blows their assignments and he gets hit by a DL in the backfield? Or does this only go one way?
Originally Posted by dls6501:
So beyond tired of people making comments like this. Why should we take out the 91 yarder? Did it not happen? Do we not know how averages work?
Just blows my mind. Sometimes, players need touches and big plays will happen. You know who used to be like this? LaDanian Tomlinson.
(Just because I know some people are idiots and cant understand that I am not comparing the two in total skill level, let me say I AM NOT COMPARING THE TWO IN TERMS OF HOW GOOD THEY ARE.)
LaDanian Tomlinson had plenty of games in his career where he had something like 20 total carries, 18 of said carries for 30 yards, 1 carry for 25 yards, and 1 carry for 65 yards and a touchdown.
Do you think Charger fans would bitch and say "oh well if you took out the two long runs, LT only had 30 yards on 18 carries"?!? No of f***ing course not. Sometimes, players make a big play if they are given a bunch of opportunities, even if said opportunities fail most of the time. Obviously, this didnt happen all the time with LT, but it did happen sometimes.
Again, not saying Damien is anything close to LT....but maybe, just maybe he is similar to him in this specific aspect. Feed him the ball and he might just break one for a gamechanging play.
Since you quoted my post, I'll try to answer your question without getting too "math-y".
In statistics and probabilities you are taught to ignore outliers in order to avoid skewing your results.
If we look at your proposed LaDanian's statistical line, twice within 20 carries LT ran for big gains. And if we look at his history, we can see that this is fairly consistent; every 20-30 carries LT often had a big gain. Furthermore, every 10 carries or so he had a gain of at least 10 yards. So even though LT only had a big gain every 20 carries, we can include those in his stats without dear of skewing his results, because of his consistency.
On the other hand, Damien has carried the ball 60 times this year for 225 yards. Basically, for three games, if we assume about 20 carries per game. That's about 3.75 yards/carry, even if we include the 91-yarder from yesterday.
But we all know that isn't accurate; for 59 straight carries Damien's average was around 2 yards/carry. He didn't have a few 10-yarders and a few 15-yarders mixed in. We watched him essentially run for 20 yards or less for 59 rushes in a row. Adding in the 91-yarder and then saying, "look, DW's average is 3.75 yards/carry," is obviously and unnecessarily skewing the results.
The other parameter we have to look at is the boundary of the duration of a game. Let's just say that about every 50-60 carries DW consistently breaks a big gain. That's about every two to three games. But the rest of his rushes are about 3 yards/carry. That's well below the league average. And not often enough to consider him as a starting RB in the NFL.
He needs to either break off big runs a lot more often, or his average rush per carry has to come up to at least the league average. Otherwise, no one's going to be impressed with a guy that runs for a big gain every two or three games.
So, since DW's frequency of running for large gains is so rare, mathematically we are taught to ignore the outlier.
The reason Shady is the better back as it concerns yards/carry is that about every 3-4 rushes he runs one for more than 7 yards and every 5+ rushes he'll run one for more than 10 yards. regardless of OL play, DL faced, weather, etc. Shady is consistent. You know that if you hand him the ball 15 times he'll get you 50+ yards.
Right now, we know that if we hand the ball to DW 15 times, he probably gets you 30.
By the way, even if you keep the 91-yarder, Damien's 3.75 yards/carry is still under the league average. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mama Hip Rockets:
Why would you take out the 91-yard run? It happened. I hate it when people say, "Well, if you take out _________ huge plays, the stats are much worse." Yeah, no shit. But the huge play actually happened in real life, so we don't take it out.
Yes it happened, but its what we call an outlier. It's not the norm, if he's popping off 91 yard runs even every fifth or sixth game it would be nice, but he's not. He's a sub 4 YPC back. You can put Damien Williams on your fantasy team if you want to, but I'm not going to is all I'm trying to say. I can't take away the 91 yard run, but if you look at his day outside of that one big play, he was mediocre to good. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hoover:
Take out K. Hunt's long runs and his average was shit too I bet.
I can go dig up the long runs if you'd like and I guarantee you he has more long runs in his career as a Chief than Damien does. Comparing Damien Williams to Kareem Hunt isn't an argument we should be making because it's not close. [Reply]
The most carries Damien got in the final five games last season was 13 vs the Chargers.
He averaged 9.4 carries a game, he rushed for 255 yards (5.42 ypc) or about 51 yards per game. He popped numerous 15 yard-plus runs during that span, and he scored 6 TDs. We need to utilize this kid. He's just fine for an Andy Reid pass happy offense. Those of you longing for a heavy dose of the run need to root for a different team. It's not happening here. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Gravedigger:
Yes it happened, but its what we call an outlier. It's not the norm, if he's popping off 91 yard runs even every fifth or sixth game it would be nice, but he's not. He's a sub 4 YPC back. You can put Damien Williams on your fantasy team if you want to, but I'm not going to is all I'm trying to say. I can't take away the 91 yard run, but if you look at his day outside of that one big play, he was mediocre to good.
He averaged 5.1 YPC last year, and he was huge down the stretch. [Reply]
Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief:
I think the turning point was in the GB game last week after Shady's fumble. On that next drive, Damien ran with authority and drive. He showed both the ability to be a workhorse and a burner.
He's gotta be RB1 from here on out with a few creative plays for McCoy, preferably where he's about 10 yards away from any defensive player who might touch his right wing while carrying the ball.
Completely agree.
Right after McCoy's fumble Williams came in and was running hard. I think he saw his opportunity, realized he'd already tripped over his feet the first shot he had at it, and wasn't gonna let it happen again.
I said it several times last year but Williams wasn't the soft finesse back that needed a goaline handcuff that people assumed he'd be. He was tough between the tackles and willing to deliver a blow. He wasn't a pile mover, but he wasn't gonna dance and get hit sideways when there was a shot at hitting the gap and falling forward for 2 yards. He was an effective back.
If he's back to being that guy again then he needs to be the starter and carry 70% or more of the load. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Since you quoted my post, I'll try to answer your question without getting too "math-y".
In statistics and probabilities you are taught to ignore outliers in order to avoid skewing your results.
If we look at your proposed LaDanian's statistical line, twice within 20 carries LT ran for big gains. And if we look at his history, we can see that this is fairly consistent; every 20-30 carries LT often had a big gain. Furthermore, every 10 carries or so he had a gain of at least 10 yards. So even though LT only had a big gain every 20 carries, we can include those in his stats without dear of skewing his results, because of his consistency.
On the other hand, Damien has carried the ball 60 times this year for 225 yards. Basically, for three games, if we assume about 20 carries per game. That's about 3.75 yards/carry, even if we include the 91-yarder from yesterday.
But we all know that isn't accurate; for 59 straight carries Damien's average was around 2 yards/carry. He didn't have a few 10-yarders and a few 15-yarders mixed in. We watched him essentially run for 20 yards or less for 59 rushes in a row. Adding in the 91-yarder and then saying, "look, DW's average is 3.75 yards/carry," is obviously and unnecessarily skewing the results.
The other parameter we have to look at is the boundary of the duration of a game. Let's just say that about every 50-60 carries DW consistently breaks a big gain. That's about every two to three games. But the rest of his rushes are about 3 yards/carry. That's well below the league average. And not often enough to consider him as a starting RB in the NFL.
He needs to either break off big runs a lot more often, or his average rush per carry has to come up to at least the league average. Otherwise, no one's going to be impressed with a guy that runs for a big gain every two or three games.
So, since DW's frequency of running for large gains is so rare, mathematically we are taught to ignore the outlier.
The reason Shady is the better back as it concerns yards/carry is that about every 3-4 rushes he runs one for more than 7 yards and every 5+ rushes he'll run one for more than 10 yards. regardless of OL play, DL faced, weather, etc. Shady is consistent. You know that if you hand him the ball 15 times he'll get you 50+ yards.
Right now, we know that if we hand the ball to DW 15 times, he probably gets you 30.
By the way, even if you keep the 91-yarder, Damien's 3.75 yards/carry is still under the league average.
All I can tell you is that running backs need to get in a rhythm too. Its not just QBs and WRs.
In the 7 games DW has played this year, here are his attempts:
13
9
9
1
9
7
12
Sorry, but this is not enough. Has he done a great job with the limited opportunities he has gotten this year? No, he hasnt. But given more opportunities, its very possible he could exceed the production he has already had.
I do not buy your premise that it will take him 50-60 carries to break a big one, just because thats what the numbers tell you right now. So the entire premise of your point of view is very misleading to me. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dls6501:
All I can tell you is that running backs need to get in a rhythm too. Its not just QBs and WRs.
In the 7 games DW has played this year, here are his attempts:
13
9
9
1
9
7
12
Sorry, but this is not enough. Has he done a great job with the limited opportunities he has gotten this year? No, he hasnt. But given more opportunities, its very possible he could exceed the production he has already had.
I do not buy your premise that it will take him 50-60 carries to break a big one, just because thats what the numbers tell you right now. So the entire premise of your point of view is very misleading to me.
You want to see him get in a rhythm, sure. But you also have to earn your carries in this league.
The Williams that started the season didn't look NFL caliber. Take the averages and the numbers out of it if you want - the guy looked soft and indecisive. He didn't look like someone who just needed more carries - he looked like someone who was taking touches away from Mahomes in a quixotic attempt to 'establish the run'.
Now the guy that carried the rock against GB deserves to get carries and get settled into a rhythm. Even if his YPC is low, you give him the ball a dozen times each game and see if he comes around; if he does he gets 15-20 touches and if not you lean on the passing game or work Shady in a bit more.
But he has to demonstrate that he's gonna run hard early on so you can give him the rope he needs to get up and running. I don't blame Reid for freezing him out prior to the last two weeks - he earned that cold shoulder. But now he seems to have gotten himself back into the game and we should reward that. [Reply]