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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Titty Meat 06:07 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Any more details?
#Wapo has legit bombshell indicating the #coronavirus was created by & escaped from a #Chinese lab experimenting on bats,
which means the whole wet market story was just BS cover for a bio-experiment ****up of epic proportion.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini....co/oddb49swcL
[Reply]
KCUnited 06:08 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Can people be happy when their neighbors are dying?

(That's meant to be a legitimate question - not being facetious.)
People are going to continue to die from this. There is no realistic zero fatality/opening back up scenario. So where’s the equilibrium point? What’s the metric we’re okay with? Hospital overrun? PPE resources? X number of deaths? New cases?
[Reply]
TLO 06:09 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
#Wapo has legit bombshell indicating the #coronavirus was created by & escaped from a #Chinese lab experimenting on bats,
which means the whole wet market story was just BS cover for a bio-experiment ****up of epic proportion.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini....co/oddb49swcL
An opinion piece behind the WaPo's paywall?

No thanks.
[Reply]
DaFace 06:13 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by KCUnited:
People are going to continue to die from this. There is no realistic zero fatality/opening back up scenario. So where’s the equilibrium point? What’s the metric we’re okay with? Hospital overrun? PPE resources? X number of deaths? New cases?
Exactly my point. What is the dollar value (in economic damage) per human life that we're willing to accept? And, conversely, what is the economic cost of a human death? It's a crazy thing to think about, but that's really what all of this comes down to.
[Reply]
Titty Meat 06:14 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
An opinion piece behind the WaPo's paywall?

No thanks.
Two years before the novel*coronavirus*pandemic upended the world, U.S. Embassy officials visited a Chinese research facility in the city of Wuhan several times and sent two official warnings back to Washington about inadequate safety at the lab, which was conducting risky studies on coronaviruses from bats. The cables have fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus — even though conclusive proof has yet to emerge.

In January 2018, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing took the Institute of Virology (WIV), which had in 2015 become China’s first laboratory to achieve the highest level of international bioresearch safety (known as BSL-4). WIV issued a news release in English about the last of these visits, which occurred on March 27, 2018. The U.S. delegation was led by Jamison Fouss, the consul general in Wuhan, and Rick Switzer, the embassy’s counselor of environment, science, technology and health. Last week, WIV*erasedthat statement from its website, though it remains archived on the Internet.

Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic

What the U.S. officials learned during their visits concerned them so much that they dispatched two diplomatic cables categorized as Sensitive But Unclassified back to Washington. The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.



“During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory,” states the Jan. 19, 2018, cable, which was drafted by two officials from the embassy’s environment, science and health sections who met with the WIV scientists. (The State Department declined to comment on this and other details of the story.)


The Chinese researchers at WIV were receiving assistance from the Galveston National Laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch and other U.S. organizations, but the Chinese requested additional help. The cables argued that the United States should give the Wuhan lab further support, mainly because its research on bat coronaviruses was important but also dangerous.

As the cable noted, the U.S. visitors met with Shi Zhengli, the head of the research project, who had been publishing studies related to bat coronaviruses*for many years. In November 2017, just before the U.S. officials’ visit, Shi’s team had*published research*showing that horseshoe bats they had collected from a cave in Yunnan province were very likely from the same bat population that spawned the SARS coronavirus in 2003.

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“Most importantly,” the cable states, “the researchers also showed that various SARS-like coronaviruses can interact with ACE2, the human receptor identified for SARS-coronavirus. This finding strongly suggests that SARS-like coronaviruses from bats can be transmitted to humans to cause SARS-like diseases. From a public health perspective, this makes the continued surveillance of SARS-like coronaviruses in bats and study of the animal-human interface critical to future emerging coronavirus outbreak prediction and prevention.”

The research was designed to prevent the next SARS-like pandemic by anticipating how it might emerge. But even in 2015, other*scientists questioned*whether Shi’s team was taking unnecessary risks. In October 2014, the U.S. government had*imposed a moratorium*on funding of any research that makes a virus more deadly or contagious, known as “gain-of-function” experiments.

As*many have pointed out, there is no evidence that the virus now plaguing the world was engineered; scientists largely agree it came from animals. But that is not the same as saying it didn’t come from the lab, which spent years testing bat coronaviruses in animals, said Xiao Qiang, a research scientist at the School of Information at the University of California at Berkeley.



“The cable tells us that there have long been concerns about the possibility of the threat to public health that came from this lab’s research, if it was not being adequately conducted and protected,” he said.

There are similar concerns about the nearby Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab, which operates at biosecurity level 2, a level significantly less secure than the level-4 standard claimed by the Wuhan Insititute of Virology lab, Xiao said. That’s important because the Chinese government still refuses to answer basic questions about the origin of the novel coronavirus while suppressing any attempts to examine whether either lab was involved.

Sources familiar with the cables said they were meant to sound an alarm about the grave safety concerns at the WIV lab, especially regarding its work with bat coronaviruses. The embassy officials were calling for more U.S. attention to this lab and more support for it, to help it fix its problems.



“The cable was a warning shot,” one U.S. official said. “They were begging people to pay attention to what was going on.”

No extra assistance to the labs was provided by the U.S. government in response to these cables. The cables began to circulate again inside the administration over the past two months as officials debated whether the lab could be the origin of the pandemic and what the implications would be for the U.S. pandemic response and relations with China.

Inside the Trump administration, many national security officials have long suspected either the WIV or the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab was the source of the novel coronavirus outbreak.*According to*the New York Times, the intelligence community has provided no evidence to confirm this. But one senior administration official told me that the cables provide one more piece of evidence to support the possibility that the pandemic is the result of a lab accident in Wuhan.



“The idea that it was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from the lab is circumstantial. Right now, the ledger on the side of it leaking from the lab is packed with bullet points and there’s almost nothing on the other side,” the official said.

As my colleague David Ignatius*noted, the Chinese government’s original story — that the virus emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan — is shaky. Research by Chinese experts published in*the Lancet*in January showed the first known patient, identified on Dec. 1, had no connection to the market, nor did more than one-third of the cases in the first large cluster. Also, the market didn’t sell bats.

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Shi and*other WIV researchers*have*categorically denied*this lab was the origin for the novel coronavirus. On Feb. 3, her team was the first to*publicly report*the virus known as 2019-nCoV was a bat-derived coronavirus.



The Chinese government, meanwhile, has put a total lockdown on information related to the virus origins. Beijing has yet to provide U.S. experts with samples of the novel coronavirus collected from the earliest cases. The Shanghai lab that published the novel coronavirus genome on Jan. 11 was quickly shut down by authorities for “rectification.” Several of the*doctors and journalists*who reported on the spread early on have disappeared.

On Feb. 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping*called for*a new biosecurity law to be accelerated. On Wednesday,*CNN reported*the Chinese government has placed severe restrictions requiring approval before any research institution publishes anything on the origin of the novel coronavirus.

The origin story is not just about blame. It’s crucial to understanding how the novel coronavirus pandemic started because that informs how to prevent the next one. The Chinese government must be transparent and answer the questions about the Wuhan labs because they are vital to our scientific understanding of the virus, said Xiao.



We don’t know whether the novel coronavirus originated in the Wuhan lab, but the cable pointed to the danger there and increases the impetus to find out, he said.

“I don’t think it’s a conspiracy theory. I think it’s a legitimate question that needs to be investigated and answered,” he said. “To understand exactly how this originated is critical knowledge for preventing this from happening in the future.”
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 06:15 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I think it depends on what area of the country you're in.
We have been shut down in Saint Joe for a month and had what? 2 hospitalizations at this point?
[Reply]
TLO 06:16 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
We have been shut down in Saint Joe for a month and had what? 2 hospitalizations at this point?
That is correct. And approximately 22 confirmed cases.
[Reply]
DaFace 06:16 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
#Wapo has legit bombshell indicating the #coronavirus was created by & escaped from a #Chinese lab experimenting on bats,
which means the whole wet market story was just BS cover for a bio-experiment ****up of epic proportion.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini....co/oddb49swcL
That's not an accurate summary of the article. There is a lab that was experimenting to try and figure out ways to contain another SARS-like outbreak, and U.S. officials were concerned about the safety of it.

There's not actually any evidence that that's where this originated, though it's in the realm of plausibility.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 06:17 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Step 1: Don't overrun hospitals.
Step 2: Keep the spread low until vaccines and treatments can be developed and until PPE supplies can be replenished.

#1 is within reach for many areas of the country (though I wouldn't go declaring victory just yet). #2 is a long way off.
I don't recall 2 ever being mentioned. The shut downs were almost all for 2 weeks to start. Obviously 2 wouldn't have been given as a reason for a 2 week shutdown.
[Reply]
KCUnited 06:17 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Exactly my point. What is the dollar value (in economic damage) per human life that we're willing to accept? And, conversely, what is the economic cost of a human death? It's a crazy thing to think about, but that's really what all of this comes down to.
Feel like we’re moving beyond the dollar value and thinking more about personal freedoms. At least I am.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 06:18 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
That is correct. And approximately 22 confirmed cases.
Not exactly pushing the limits of Mosaic. I think things can loosen up some as of the 24th.
[Reply]
Titty Meat 06:19 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
That's not an accurate summary of the article. There is a lab that was experimenting to try and figure out ways to contain another SARS-like outbreak, and U.S. officials were concerned about the safety of it.

There's not actually any evidence that that's where this originated, though it's in the realm of plausibility.
It's an interesting theory one that could explain why China lied.
[Reply]
DaFace 06:20 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
It's an interesting theory one that could explain why China lied.
Sure. But your summary presented it all as fact, which it's not.
[Reply]
Titty Meat 06:21 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Sure. But your summary presented it all as fact, which it's not.
I was referencing the tweet. I'm not claiming anything though this seems to more plausible as time passes.
[Reply]
TLO 06:22 PM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
Lots of words
Thanks for posting. Seems like a real possibility - but the bat is out of the bag now. Time to fix the mess it caused, then we can assign blame and punishment if necessary.
[Reply]
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