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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
mdchiefsfan 04:02 PM 04-13-2020
Look at MD. The number of deaths chart is seriously out of whack. 5 days until the peak of deaths (25 deaths anticipated), which is a lower number of deaths than what occurred (and is displayed) for April 11th at 35 deaths.

Wouldn’t the peak be on the 11th then?
[Reply]
KCUnited 04:07 PM 04-13-2020

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Titty Meat 04:08 PM 04-13-2020
KCFD lost an emt to covid :-)
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dirk digler 04:09 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I thought for a while you could go back and look at past projections, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Unless I'm not able to find it on my phone for whatever reason.

Anyway, we're at +1,380 deaths today with a good portion of states reprin reporting.

They provide a spreadsheet you can download


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads
[Reply]
Titty Meat 04:15 PM 04-13-2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.
[Reply]
DaFace 04:37 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.
Bummer. That's why clinical trials exist, though.
[Reply]
DaFace 04:38 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
They provide a spreadsheet you can download


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads
Not exactly easy to work with, but that's something at least.

So as a random point of comparison, the 4/1/20 version of the model predicted that Colorado would need roughly 8k hospital beds and 1,300 ICU beds today and that we'd see 72 deaths. The current model says 388/97/13.
[Reply]
PAChiefsGuy 04:45 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.
I figured. Fauci didnt seem to excited about it.
[Reply]
eDave 04:48 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
I figured. Fauci didnt seem to excited about it.
Yea, I haven't heard much about that "miracal" drug for a few days, which seems like months.
[Reply]
PAChiefsGuy 04:57 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by eDave:
Yea, I haven't heard much about that "miracal" drug for a few days, which seems like months.
Yeah that's for movies or for guys like Pete and Marcellus to believe. It's going to take time for vaccine to come, unfortunately
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TLO 05:03 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.
Woah woah woah.... If anecdotal positive instances don't count, a study of 81 Brazilian people who were being given higher than recommend doses had to be called off shouldn't count either.
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TLO 05:07 PM 04-13-2020
And no, I don't think it's a miracle drug, a cure, or anything else. This is why clinical trials are important.
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DaFace 05:11 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Woah woah woah.... If anecdotal positive instances don't count, a study of 81 Brazilian people who were being given higher than recommend doses had to be called off shouldn't count either.
Eh, I agree to some extent, but the difference is where the burden of proof lies.

"This treatment cures Coronavirus" requires a large sample because a vast majority of people don't die from it anyway.

"This treatment causes heart disease" doesn't require a large sample because they wouldn't otherwise have expected more than a tiny portion of people to independently develop an irregular heartbeat during the study.

But yes, a randomized trial would have been dramatically better, and this isn't the final word on whether it's a viable treatment.
[Reply]
petegz28 05:13 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/h....co/FjToqbMXu6

I know we had a pretty big debate in this debate over this drug.
Originally Posted by eDave:
Yea, I haven't heard much about that "miracal" drug for a few days, which seems like months.
Originally Posted by TLO:
Woah woah woah.... If anecdotal positive instances don't count, a study of 81 Brazilian people who were being given higher than recommend doses had to be called off shouldn't count either.
And TLO nails it!

Originally Posted by :
A research trial of coronavirus patients in Brazil ended after patients taking a higher dose of chloroquine, one of the drugs President Trump has promoted, developed irregular heart rates......

Several clinical trials for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are testing low doses for shorter periods of time in coronavirus patients. But the Health Commission of Guangdong Province in China had initially recommended those sick with the virus be treated with 500 milligrams of chloroquine twice daily for 10 days.

[Reply]
DaFace 05:18 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
And TLO nails it!
I have 10 people who are sick with a common cold. I give them a drug. They all live. How confident are you that it was my drug that kept them alive?

I have 10 people who are sick with a common cold. I give them a drug. Two of them die. How confident are you that it was my drug that killed them?

The probabilities are stretched compared to COVID to make the point, but that's what we're talking about here.
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