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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Mecca 03:05 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
"Extend into Mid-May" is a clever way of saying "until next year", isn't it?
I think it is time for some conspiracy videos!
[Reply]
TLO 03:06 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
Given their performance to date, why do we care about the projections?
Well hey in Texas somewhere between 600 people, and 9000 people are projected to die.

What kind of projection is that?
[Reply]
Mr. Plow 03:06 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
"Extend into Mid-May" is a clever way of saying "until next year", isn't it?
I'd be surprised if the governor doesn't extend the Kansas stay at home order this week to at least the end of April.
[Reply]
SAUTO 03:06 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Well hey in Texas somewhere between 600 people, and 9000 people are projected to die.

What kind of projection is that?
One with a large margin for error?
[Reply]
Mecca 03:07 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Well hey in Texas somewhere between 600 people, and 9000 people are projected to die.

What kind of projection is that?
Well their lieutenant governor thinks old people should just sacrifice themselves for the economy so....
[Reply]
Mecca 03:07 PM 04-13-2020
Here is a Texas style projection.....

My penis could be 4 inches long.....or it could be 7 or hell it could be 3 feet.
[Reply]
kgrund 03:08 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
With which performance do you take issue?
Take your pick. They have virtually been significantly wrong in virtually every measurable. Assumptions and data input results in poor projections. Central point: take them all with a grain of salt.
[Reply]
SAUTO 03:08 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Well their lieutenant governor thinks old people should just sacrifice themselves for the economy so....
:-)
[Reply]
TLO 03:10 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
no we do not
I kind of do. But they change so drastically in 3 days time that it will give you whiplash.
[Reply]
TLO 03:12 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
One with a large margin for error?
Why does the margin of error change so often? Why are there such extreme swings in the margin for error? I don't understand it and it fucking pisses me off.
[Reply]
Donger 03:15 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
Take your pick. They have virtually been significantly wrong in virtually every measurable. Assumptions and data input results in poor projections. Central point: take them all with a grain of salt.
Well, what's your pick? Maybe just one?
[Reply]
DaFace 03:16 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Why does the margin of error change so often? Why are there such extreme swings in the margin for error? I don't understand it and it fucking pisses me off.
I think you read it, so think of my hurricane analogy. Miami could have a forecast of 30" of rain if they take a direct hit or 1-2" if all they get is the edges of the storm. It doesn't seem all that helpful, but both are within a reasonable range of predictions.

Also, your frustration is probably why 90% of the models being used aren't made public.
[Reply]
Donger 03:19 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Why does the margin of error change so often? Why are there such extreme swings in the margin for error? I don't understand it and it ****ing pisses me off.
Have you read their explanation regarding uncertainty?
[Reply]
Titty Meat 03:22 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by Mr. Plow:
I'm wondering if Kansas will as a whole. I believe it expires this Sunday.
I havent looked at KS too much but that extension would be part of the core 4 so Joco and Wyandotte on the KS side. If the peak has been moved to April 28th it's hard to imagine Kelly wouldnt extend it for the rest of the state. She was very quick to act on this thing.
[Reply]
TLO 03:23 PM 04-13-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
I think you read it, so think of my hurricane analogy. Miami could have a forecast of 30" of rain if they take a direct hit or 1-2" if all they get is the edges of the storm. It doesn't seem all that helpful, but both are within a reasonable range of predictions.

Also, your frustration is probably why 90% of the models being used aren't made public.
Your analogy makes sense. I understand that trying to predict this sort of thing is virtually impossible. Hence the wide variety of uncertainty.

I'm trying to find good/positive/hopeful news. I hoped the models might continue trending downward, but my hopes don't really matter in the end.
[Reply]
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