Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Additional studies have also highlighted the unintended consequences for shutting down schools down, with regards to trying to stop the pandemic:
Originally Posted by Monticore:
So more studies they didn't have 3 months ago .
A study was needed to confirm that frontline health care workers with children would need to stay home and care for their children if schools are closed?
That occurrence could not have been anticipated? [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Your "common sense approach" vs. findings from a research study conducted by scientists from the University College London.
-Preprint studies report that school closures were initiated nationally across mainland China in late January, 2020—which manifested as delaying the restarting of schools after the Chinese New Year holidays—as part of a broader series of control measures during the COVID-19 epidemic. No data are available on the effectiveness of school closure as there was little variation in timing of closures (closures were reportedly applied in all Chinese cities uniformly and without delay) and school closures were part of a broad range of quarantine and social distancing measures. Both of these studies concluded that the overall package of quarantine and social distancing was effective in reducing the epidemic in mainland China,
although the relative contribution of school closures was not assessed.
Preprint studies of actions in Hong Kong related to COVID-19 noted that a 4-week school closure was initiated across the city on Feb 1, 2020, approximately 1 week after the first cases were identified in Hong Kong. School closures were implemented at the same time as a number of other stringent social distancing measures, with school closures extended initially to March, 2020, then to April, 2020.
Collectively, these measures were considered to have reduced the*R*below 1, controlling the spread of the outbreak.
As in mainland China, no data were available from either paper on the effect of school closures separate from other measures. Cowling and colleagues noted that the social distancing measures implemented during the COVID-19 outbreak reduced community transmission by 44%, which was much greater than the estimated 10–15% reduction in influenza transmission conferred by school closures implemented alone during the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong."
**********
Basically they excluded any studies on Covid-19 because they were not designed to study the isolated effect of school closures, so they took their data from the 2003 SARS outbreak studies.
**************
"
This Review provides the first summary of data on school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We were able to include only nine published studies and seven non-peer-reviewed studies. We decided to include unreviewed studies as data would not otherwise be available on COVID-19, although findings were interpreted with caution. Except for one modelling study, none of the included studies were designed to specifically examine the effectiveness of school distancing measures. Thus, data provided on the effect of school measures were of relatively low quality.
We identified a remarkable dearth of policy-relevant data on the implementation of school social distancing during coronavirus outbreaks. This finding is perhaps not surprising for the rapidly emerging COVID-19 pandemic, but previous coronavirus outbreaks such as SARS and MERS provide limited information about the effectiveness of school closures and no data on cost-effectiveness. No data on other less disruptive school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks were identified."
No one is going to convince me that keeping school open during a pandemic is a good idea. Kids are fucking petri dishes, I very rarely ever get sick, I've had the flu 1 time in 15 years......every god damn flu or cold I've had in the last 20 years is because a kid came home from fucking school with it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
A study was needed to confirm that frontline health care workers with children would need to stay home and care for their children if schools are closed?
That occurrence could not have been anticipated?
Read Supdock's post carefully , I didn't really need a study to tell me that, I am a frontline worker plus wouldn't that be common sense. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
No one is going to convince me that keeping school open during a pandemic is a good idea. Kids are fucking petri dishes, I very rarely ever get sick, I've had the flu 1 time in 15 years......every god damn flu or cold I've had in the last 20 years is because a kid came home from fucking school with it.
Truth. I'm....ummm...ahem...51 years old. I have never been sick more often than the 7 years my son was in elementary school. Christ he even brought home fucking pinkeye one time. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
No one is going to convince me that keeping school open during a pandemic is a good idea. Kids are fucking petri dishes, I very rarely ever get sick, I've had the flu 1 time in 15 years......every god damn flu or cold I've had in the last 20 years is because a kid came home from fucking school with it.
Same here, little bastards are always dragging something home with them. [Reply]
