Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Will a 2nd wave come if we go back to normal? That’s the big question
That's why young people should go out first, we'll be the guinea pigs.
I heard rumors Japan and SK might be on the verge of second waves. China has totally avoided a second wave (I have a friend who lives there..not propaganda lies). [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Will a 2nd wave come if we go back to normal? That’s the big question
Not really. History tells us we'll likely see a smaller secondary and maybe an even smaller tertiary 'wave.' Probably over the next 24 months or so, I guess. But considering that right now we're looking at a lethality rate of less than 1% nation-wide, those waves will be far easier to deal with than this first one. If the curve is really flattening nationally, we're probably not far from being in the clear You can stop buying TP and PT now. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Ninerfan11:
That's why young people should go out first, we'll be the guinea pigs.
I heard rumors Japan and SK might be on the verge of second waves. China has totally avoided a second wave (I have a friend who lives there..not propaganda lies).
Ah China's numbers are completely false. There more than 50,000 dead in Wuhan alone.
But I agree with the first part; younger people should be free to go back to work and get back to their lives. As a 50 year-old I've always been told I act like a teen-ager so I'll go with them. It's only fair. [Reply]
Study shows Kansas and Missouri may need more hospital beds as coronavirus cases grow
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Study shows Kansas and Missouri may need more hospital beds as coronavirus cases grow
NEWS
by: Shannon O'Brien
Posted: Apr 6, 2020 / 06:40 PM CDT / Updated: Apr 6, 2020 / 06:45 PM CDT
Data pix.
KANSAS CITY, Kan. — A new study shows Kansas and Missouri could be in trouble and run out of hospital beds to treat COVID-19 patients if what we are doing to try and slow the spread does not work.
The future of the COVID-19 crisis is in all of our hands. If people do not stay at home and take social distancing seriously, it could be even more deadly and get there quickly.
A study by the Harvard Global Health Institute paints a daunting picture of what could happen in Kansas and Missouri if COVID-19 spreads as predicted.
The study projects at least 287,000 people in Kansas and Missouri could be hospitalized and there are not enough hospital beds to handle that many patients.
The study shows a set of maps with hospitals' current ability to handle patients. If just 20 percent of the population gets COVID-19 within six months, nearly every hospital in both states would be beyond capacity to treat the sickest patients.
Kansas City would only have half the beds to care for its sickest patients and smaller cities and rural hospitals would be in even worse shape.
“The challenges of rural hospitals is in shortages of staff and some of their financial independence. Those have been long-standing issues. Technology is also an issue,” said former Kansas Governor Dr. Jeff Colyer.
Colyer is the chair of the National Advisory Committee on Rural Health and Human Services. He says there are about 82 critical access hospitals in the state of Kansas, 20 percent of which have financial issues and have difficulty making payroll. These fragile hospitals could buckle during the COVID-19 crisis.
“These rural hospitals, these are the places where the next wave of the pandemic is after it hits the cities,” Colyer said.”If they can’t refer on to another hospital where there are significant shortages of equipment, you can see a real death toll, a real problem."
Besides a lack of money, personnel and supplies, rural communities have an aging population. In a third of the counties in Kansas, more than 30 percent of the population is over 65 and have a higher incidence of diabetes, cardiac issues and other high risk problems.
“Those are people that are working hard every day and we need to make sure that they have the access to care that they might not have, that you might see here in the city, but it’s not available there,” Colyer said.
Hospitals across both states are making provisions in case the worst happens. In anticipation of a shortage of hospital beds we contacted local hospitals to see what they are doing to prepare.
St. Luke's is adding 64 beds.
Olathe Medical Center is preparing its recently vacated 5th floor to accommodate 43 beds.
Truman Medical Center will use its Gastrointestinal Center and Outpatient Surgery Center to accommodate more patients.
HCA is also planning to add beds to certain area of its hospitals but no specific plan was provided.
Colyer says urban and rural hospitals are working together to plan for the worst. Depending upon the situation, rural and urban hospitals could patient swap. Moving less ill patients. In urban areas to rural hospitals and critically ill patients transported to larger hospitals better equipped to treat them.
Of course, the worst case scenario can be avoided if we stop the spread by being diligent in staying home and social distancing. [Reply]